中本聪是谁？这重要吗？

自2008年著名的比特币白皮书发布以来，“中本聪”的身份一直是人们激烈猜测的话题

Bitcoin’s inventor remains resolutely anonymous, despite the best efforts of journalists, enthusiasts, and even the High Court of England and Wales to unmask him or her. Now, however, HBO documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery claims to have finally achieved what no one else has in the cryptocurrency’s 16 years of existence: revealing the real ‘Satoshi Nakamoto.’

尽管记者、爱好者、甚至英格兰和威尔士高等法院尽了最大努力来揭露比特币的发明者，但比特币的发明者仍然完全匿名。然而现在，HBO 纪录片《Money Electric：比特币之谜》声称终于实现了加密货币诞生 16 年来无人能及的成就：揭示真正的“中本聪”。

The film makes some bold claims, and as someone who was bitten by the Bitcoin bug early on, and who subsequently devoted my career to the transformative blockchain-based technologies that followed in its wake, I’m, of course, fascinated to know who the real Satoshi is. But there are far more pressing questions to consider: does his or her identity really matter? And will revealing it do more harm than good?

这部电影做出了一些大胆的主张，作为一个很早就被比特币迷住的人，后来又将我的职业生涯奉献给随之而来的基于区块链的变革性技术，我当然很想知道谁真正的中本聪是。但还有更紧迫的问题需要考虑：他或她的身份真的重要吗？揭露它会弊大于利吗？

The King (or Queen) of Crypto

加密货币之王（或女王）

The identity of ‘Satoshi’ has been the subject of intense speculation since the publication of the famous Bitcoin Whitepaper in 2008, and it’s fast becoming the modern-day equivalent of historical whodunnits like Bigfoot or Mary Celeste. Some have sought to capitalize on the intense public interest by claiming to be this mysterious man. Earlier this year, the High Court of England and Wales ruled that Australian businessman and computer scientist Craig Wright was categorically not the inventor of Bitcoin. (Wright now faces the prospect of prosecution for perjury.)

自 2008 年著名的比特币白皮书发布以来，“中本聪”的身份一直是人们强烈猜测的话题，并且它正在迅速成为现代侦探小说中的“大脚怪”或“玛丽·塞莱斯特”。一些人试图利用公众的强烈兴趣，声称自己就是这个神秘的人。今年早些时候，英格兰和威尔士高等法院裁定澳大利亚商人和计算机科学家克雷格·赖特绝对不是比特币的发明者。 （赖特现在面临着因作伪证而被起诉的可能性。）

Whenever anyone claims to be Satoshi, I’m always reminded of that line in Monty Python’s Life of Brian: “Only the true Messiah denies his divinity.” To understand why, we need to delve a little into the culture of cryptography. People who develop codes and cybersecurity technology tend to be reclusive by temperament, while the nature of their work is conducive to that type of personality. Revealing too much (or anything) about yourself is antithetical to the philosophy of cryptography, which forms the foundation for the whole Bitcoin model.

每当有人声称自己是中本聪时，我总会想起 Monty Python 的《布莱恩传》中的那句话：“只有真正的弥赛亚否认他的神性。”为了理解其中的原因，我们需要深入研究密码学文化。开发代码和网络安全技术的人往往性格孤僻，而他们的工作性质有利于这种性格。过多地透露自己（或任何事情）与密码学哲学是对立的，而密码学构成了整个比特币模型的基础。

In other words, someone who says they’re not Satoshi is likelier to be him than someone who claims they are.

换句话说，自称不是中本聪的人比自称是中本聪的人更有可能是中本聪。

Did they get the right man?

他们找到合适的人了吗？

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Peter K. Todd – the person identified in Money Electric and confronted by Hoback at the end of the film – is the right person, just because he vociferously denies it. As we’ve seen, however, when it comes to Bitcoin’s inventor, denial does nothing to dispel speculation; cynics might well reply, “Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he?”

当然，这并不意味着彼得·K·托德（Peter K. Todd）——《金钱电子》中提到的并在影片结尾与霍巴克对峙的人——就是正确的人选，仅仅因为他极力否认这一点。然而，正如我们所看到的，当谈到比特币的发明者时，否认并不能消除猜测。愤世嫉俗者很可能会回答：“好吧，他会这么说，不是吗？”

Yet most people closely involved in Bitcoin and blockchain feel that Hoback is way off the mark and that Todd is certainly not Satoshi. How do we know? Ironically, it’s thanks to the very blockchain technologies that Satoshi himself helped unleash.

然而，大多数与比特币和区块链密切相关的人都认为霍巴克的说法完全不符合事实，而且托德肯定不是中本聪。我们怎么知道？讽刺的是，这要归功于中本聪本人帮助释放的区块链技术。

A few weeks ago, I wrote about Polymarket, the decentralized platform that enables users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. Since launch, Polymarket has swiftly become the world’s largest prediction market, with users staking $1 billion so far on the outcome of everything from the US Presidential Election to (inevitably) Satoshi's identity.

几周前，我写了一篇有关 Polymarket 的文章，这是一个去中心化平台，使用户能够对现实世界事件的结果进行押注。自推出以来，Polymarket 已迅速成为全球最大的预测市场，迄今为止，用户已在从美国总统选举到（不可避免的）中本聪身份等各种结果上押注了 10 亿美元。

Polymarket is a powerful prediction tool because people are much more likely to be honest when their money is at stake, compared with responding to opinion pollsters. On the question of whether Todd is Satoshi, the answer from Polymarket’s participants is clear: not only do they not think Hoback got the right man, but Todd wasn’t even among the ‘candidates.’

Polymarket 是一个强大的预测工具，因为与回应民意调查相比，当人们的钱受到威胁时，人们更有可能诚实。关于托德是否是中本聪的问题，Polymarket 参与者的答案很明确：他们不仅认为霍巴克没有找到合适的人选，而且托德甚至不在“候选人”之列。

Will we ever find out Satoshi’s identity? If the ‘wisdom of crowds’ is correct, we shouldn’t expect this to be revealed any time soon. A massive 98% of people on Polymarket are betting that Satoshi will remain unidentified in 2024.

我们会查出中本聪的身份吗？如果“群众的智慧”是正确的，我们就不应该指望这一点很快就会被揭露。 Polymarket 上 98% 的人打赌中本聪到 2024 年仍将身份不明。

Bitcoin endures

比特币经久不衰

The big question looming over all this is: does it really matter who invented Bitcoin? Equally, is it important that we, its users, know?

笼罩在这一切之上的一个大问题是：谁发明了比特币真的很重要吗？同样，我们（它的用户）知道这一点很重要吗？

Unsurprisingly, Cullen Hoback thinks this matters very much. In an interview with CNN, the director points out that ‘Satoshi’ continues to exert a huge degree of control, owning a million or so bitcoins. Given that there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins and that an estimated three to four million have been lost forever through lost wallets, ‘abandonments,’ and other causes, that’s an incredibly significant stake.

毫不奇怪，卡伦·霍巴克认为这非常重要。在接受 CNN 采访时，这位主管指出，“中本聪”继续施加巨大的控制权，拥有大约一百万个比特币。考虑到比特币的存世量只有 2100 万枚，而且估计有 3 到 400 万枚比特币因钱包丢失、“遗弃”和其他原因而永远丢失，这是一个非常重要的赌注。

We all love rich lists, and the fact that ‘Satoshi’ has a personal bitcoin wealth of at least $63 billion (at current valuations) is undoubtedly of interest to the public. That’s not the same as being in the public interest, however. Yes, having such a large proportion of all the bitcoin that will ever exist does give Satoshi the ability to play havoc with Bitcoin’s short-term market value by, say, dumping all his coins without warning.

我们都喜欢富豪榜，而“中本聪”拥有至少 630 亿美元的个人比特币财富（按当前估值）这一事实无疑引起了公众的兴趣。然而，这并不等同于符合公共利益。是的，拥有如此大比例的比特币确实让中本聪有能力在没有警告的情况下抛售所有比特币，从而对比特币的短期市场价值造成严重破坏。

Yet, as any Bitcoiner knows, the cryptocurrency’s long-term value is driven by utility, not speculation. Moreover, the

然而，正如任何比特币爱好者所知，加密货币的长期价值是由实用性而非投机驱动的。此外，