Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? And Does It Matter?

The identity of 'Satoshi' has been the subject of intense speculation since the publication of the famous Bitcoin Whitepaper in 2008

Bitcoin’s inventor remains resolutely anonymous, despite the best efforts of journalists, enthusiasts, and even the High Court of England and Wales to unmask him or her. Now, however, HBO documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery claims to have finally achieved what no one else has in the cryptocurrency’s 16 years of existence: revealing the real ‘Satoshi Nakamoto.’

The film makes some bold claims, and as someone who was bitten by the Bitcoin bug early on, and who subsequently devoted my career to the transformative blockchain-based technologies that followed in its wake, I’m, of course, fascinated to know who the real Satoshi is. But there are far more pressing questions to consider: does his or her identity really matter? And will revealing it do more harm than good?

The King (or Queen) of Crypto

The identity of ‘Satoshi’ has been the subject of intense speculation since the publication of the famous Bitcoin Whitepaper in 2008, and it’s fast becoming the modern-day equivalent of historical whodunnits like Bigfoot or Mary Celeste. Some have sought to capitalize on the intense public interest by claiming to be this mysterious man. Earlier this year, the High Court of England and Wales ruled that Australian businessman and computer scientist Craig Wright was categorically not the inventor of Bitcoin. (Wright now faces the prospect of prosecution for perjury.)

Whenever anyone claims to be Satoshi, I’m always reminded of that line in Monty Python’s Life of Brian: “Only the true Messiah denies his divinity.” To understand why, we need to delve a little into the culture of cryptography. People who develop codes and cybersecurity technology tend to be reclusive by temperament, while the nature of their work is conducive to that type of personality. Revealing too much (or anything) about yourself is antithetical to the philosophy of cryptography, which forms the foundation for the whole Bitcoin model.

In other words, someone who says they’re not Satoshi is likelier to be him than someone who claims they are.

Did they get the right man?

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Peter K. Todd – the person identified in Money Electric and confronted by Hoback at the end of the film – is the right person, just because he vociferously denies it. As we’ve seen, however, when it comes to Bitcoin’s inventor, denial does nothing to dispel speculation; cynics might well reply, “Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he?”

Yet most people closely involved in Bitcoin and blockchain feel that Hoback is way off the mark and that Todd is certainly not Satoshi. How do we know? Ironically, it’s thanks to the very blockchain technologies that Satoshi himself helped unleash.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about Polymarket, the decentralized platform that enables users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. Since launch, Polymarket has swiftly become the world’s largest prediction market, with users staking $1 billion so far on the outcome of everything from the US Presidential Election to (inevitably) Satoshi's identity.

Polymarket is a powerful prediction tool because people are much more likely to be honest when their money is at stake, compared with responding to opinion pollsters. On the question of whether Todd is Satoshi, the answer from Polymarket’s participants is clear: not only do they not think Hoback got the right man, but Todd wasn’t even among the ‘candidates.’

Will we ever find out Satoshi’s identity? If the ‘wisdom of crowds’ is correct, we shouldn’t expect this to be revealed any time soon. A massive 98% of people on Polymarket are betting that Satoshi will remain unidentified in 2024.

Bitcoin endures

The big question looming over all this is: does it really matter who invented Bitcoin? Equally, is it important that we, its users, know?

Unsurprisingly, Cullen Hoback thinks this matters very much. In an interview with CNN, the director points out that ‘Satoshi’ continues to exert a huge degree of control, owning a million or so bitcoins. Given that there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins and that an estimated three to four million have been lost forever through lost wallets, ‘abandonments,’ and other causes, that’s an incredibly significant stake.

We all love rich lists, and the fact that ‘Satoshi’ has a personal bitcoin wealth of at least $63 billion (at current valuations) is undoubtedly of interest to the public. That’s not the same as being in the public interest, however. Yes, having such a large proportion of all the bitcoin that will ever exist does give Satoshi the ability to play havoc with Bitcoin’s short-term market value by, say, dumping all his coins without warning.

Yet, as any Bitcoiner knows, the cryptocurrency’s long-term value is driven by utility, not speculation. Moreover, the