關於漣漪獲取圓圈的謠言已經傳播，但估值沒有意義

在穩定市場中，其戰略一致性的報導推動了有關連鎖反應潛在獲取圈子的謠言。

Rumors have been swirling on social media about the possibility of Ripple acquiring Circle, with reports suggesting the two companies could be aligning their strategies in the stablecoin market.

在社交媒體上，有傳言說有可能獲得圓圈的可能性，報導表明這兩家公司可能會在Stablecoin市場中保持其策略。

However, according to crypto commentator Dom in a recent post on X, there is little chance that Ripple would offer anything close to $20 billion to acquire Circle. A more realistic valuation for Circle, according to Dom, would be around $5 billion, which better reflects the company’s financial performance.

但是，根據Crypto評論員Dom在X最近的一篇文章中的說法，Ripple幾乎沒有機會提供接近200億美元的收購圈子。根據DOM的說法，Circle的估值更現實，約為50億美元，這更好地反映了公司的財務業績。

“fyi @circle IPO valuation is ~$5 billion (which is the valuation Ripple is looking at when it made its acquisition offer).

“僅供參考@Circle IPO估值約50億美元（這是估值波紋在收購要約時所考慮的）。

there is no way Ripple would offer $20 billion for Circle.

Ripple不可能為Circle提供200億美元。

ps i see lots of people saying $5 billion is a low offer since circle holds $60 billion in USDC and they have huge user base. but USDC liquidity is not transferrable to another entity. it will be liquidated if anything. also, circle’s revenue model is mainly yield on these reserves, not user fees or transaction fees like other crypto companies. so we should value circle based on its income potential, not the collateral.”

ps，我看到很多人說50億美元是一個低價，因為Circle持有600億美元的USDC，並且他們擁有龐大的用戶群。但是USDC流動性無法轉移到另一個實體。如果有的話，它將被清算。此外，Circle的收入模型主要是在這些儲備金上產生的，而不是像其他加密公司一樣的用戶費用或交易費用。因此，我們應該根據其收入潛力，而不是抵押品的收入來重視圈子。 ”

Understanding Circle’s True Valuation

了解Circle的真實估值

Circle, the issuer of the popular USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin, is a well-known player in the digital payments industry. Currently, Circle manages the issuance of approximately $60 billion worth of USDC, all of which is backed by collateralized reserves in highly liquid assets such as U.S. Treasuries and cash equivalents.

Circle是受歡迎的美元硬幣（USDC）Stablecoin的發行人，是數字支付行業的著名參與者。目前，Circle管理著大約600億美元的USDC發行，所有這些都得到了高度流動資產（例如美國國債和現金等效物）的抵押儲備的支持。

This large reserve figure often leads some to believe that the company itself is valued at $60 billion, but Dom clarifies that this isn’t the case. The assets are specifically allocated to back the stablecoins in circulation, not to build up Circle’s balance sheet. Instead, Circle generates revenue through the yield realized on these reserves.

這個大型儲備金通常會導致一些人認為該公司本身的價值為600億美元，但Dom澄清說並非如此。這些資產專門分配以備份循環中的穩定幣，而不是建立Circle的資產負債表。相反，Circle通過在這些儲量上實現的收益產生收入。

This yield—accumulated from interest on short-term government securities and other low-risk instruments—contributes to Circle’s earnings, which in turn determine its enterprise valuation.

這種收益率 - 從短期政府證券和其他低風險工具的利息中獲取，歸因於Circle的收入，這反過來又決定了其企業估值。

Ripple’s Acquisition Logic Doesn’t Support a $20 Billion Bid

Ripple的收購邏輯不支持200億美元的出價

Considering this business model, Dom argues that Circle’s $5 billion IPO valuation is a more accurate assessment of its income potential. From a corporate finance standpoint, it’s unlikely that Ripple would offer a premium of 4x over that figure, especially since the collateral backing USDC isn’t transferrable or revenue-generating.

考慮到這種業務模式，Dom認為Circle的50億美元IPO估值是對其收入潛力的更準確評估。從公司金融的角度來看，Ripple不太可能提供4倍的溢價，尤其是因為抵押品支持USDC無法轉讓或產生收入。

With its own ambitions in the stablecoin space and broader payments ecosystem, Ripple has little incentive to overpay for Circle. The company recently announced its entry into the stablecoin market with RLUSD, a new XRP Ledger-native stablecoin backed 1:1 by U.S. dollar reserves.

Ripple憑藉自己在Stablecoin空間中的野心和更廣泛的付款生態系統，幾乎沒有動力過多付圈。該公司最近宣布了RLUSD進入Stablecoin市場，這是一款新的XRP Ledger-native stablecoin，以美元儲備為1：1。

As Ripple is now launching its own digital dollar equivalent, a $20 billion acquisition bid for a competitor seems even less plausible. The decision to acquire a company like Circle would depend on various factors, including current revenue, future cash flows, regulatory risks, and market competitive landscape.

隨著Ripple現在正在推出自己的數字美元同等價值，因此對競爭對手的200億美元收購競標似乎甚至不太合理。收購Circle這樣的公司的決定取決於各種因素，包括當前收入，未來現金流，監管風險和市場競爭格局。

Given the increasing regulatory scrutiny on stablecoins and Circle’s revenue model, which is largely dependent on interest rates, paying a high premium would carry significant risks.

鑑於對Stablecoins和Circle的收入模式的監管審查越來越大，這在很大程度上取決於利率，因此支付高保費將帶來重大風險。

Market Misunderstandings and Misinformation

市場誤解和錯誤信息

Dom’s post also touches upon a broader misunderstanding within the crypto community: conflating collateral managed by a company with its equity value. This oversight can inflate company valuations, especially in the stablecoin sector, where a large portion of assets are held in custody.

DOM的帖子還涉及加密社區中更廣泛的誤解：由擁有其股權價值的公司管理的抵押品混亂。這種疏忽可能會誇大公司的估值，尤其是在Stablecoin行業，那裡有大量資產被拘留。

To be clear, the $60 billion in assets isn’t available for Circle to use for growth or acquisitions. These funds are specifically allocated to redeem USDC if needed.

需要明確的是，不可用於增長或收購的600億美元資產。如果需要，這些資金專門分配以贖回USDC。

Instead, Circle’s enterprise value should be assessed through more standard metrics, such as revenue potential from interest earnings, future growth prospects, expansion of their user base, and strategic positioning in the broader market. All of these fundamentals contribute to the $5 billion valuation, not the speculative $20 billion figure.

取而代之的是，應通過更標準的指標來評估Circle的企業價值，例如利息收入，未來增長前景，其用戶群的擴展以及在更廣泛的市場中的戰略定位。所有這些基本面都促進了50億美元的估值，而不是投機性的200億美元數字。

Rational Valuations in an Evolving Ecosystem

不斷發展的生態系統中的理性估值

As the competition in the stablecoin market intensifies with new entrants like PayPal and financial institutions joining the space, strategic acquisitions will likely play a role in shaping the future of digital finance. However, companies like Ripple, which take a calculated, enterprise-focused approach, are unlikely to be easily enticed into making such moves.

隨著Stablecoin市場的競爭加劇了貝寶（Paypal）和金融機構加入該空間的新進入者，戰略收購可能會在塑造數字金融的未來中發揮作用。但是，像Ripple這樣的公司（採用以企業為中心的方法）不太可能很容易被誘使採取這種行動。

Ripple is known for its focus on utility, scalability, and sustainable revenue models, which suggests they wouldn’t be easily swayed by hype. Dom’s breakdown of Circle’s valuation highlights why any serious acquisition offer would be grounded in financial reality.

Ripple以關注效用，可伸縮性和可持續收入模型而聞名，這表明它們不會輕易炒作。 Dom對Circle的估值的細分突顯了為什麼任何認真的收購要約都將基於財務現實。