关于涟漪获取圆圈的谣言已经传播，但估值没有意义

在稳定市场中，其战略一致性的报道推动了有关连锁反应潜在获取圈子的谣言。

Rumors have been swirling on social media about the possibility of Ripple acquiring Circle, with reports suggesting the two companies could be aligning their strategies in the stablecoin market.

在社交媒体上，有传言说有可能获得圆圈的可能性，报道表明这两家公司可能会在Stablecoin市场中保持其策略。

However, according to crypto commentator Dom in a recent post on X, there is little chance that Ripple would offer anything close to $20 billion to acquire Circle. A more realistic valuation for Circle, according to Dom, would be around $5 billion, which better reflects the company’s financial performance.

但是，根据Crypto评论员Dom在X最近的一篇文章中的说法，Ripple几乎没有机会提供接近200亿美元的收购圈子。根据DOM的说法，Circle的估值更现实，约为50亿美元，这更好地反映了公司的财务业绩。

“fyi @circle IPO valuation is ~$5 billion (which is the valuation Ripple is looking at when it made its acquisition offer).

“仅供参考@Circle IPO估值约50亿美元（这是估值波纹在收购要约时所考虑的）。

there is no way Ripple would offer $20 billion for Circle.

Ripple不可能为Circle提供200亿美元。

ps i see lots of people saying $5 billion is a low offer since circle holds $60 billion in USDC and they have huge user base. but USDC liquidity is not transferrable to another entity. it will be liquidated if anything. also, circle’s revenue model is mainly yield on these reserves, not user fees or transaction fees like other crypto companies. so we should value circle based on its income potential, not the collateral.”

ps，我看到很多人说50亿美元是一个低价，因为Circle持有600亿美元的USDC，并且他们拥有庞大的用户群。但是USDC流动性无法转移到另一个实体。如果有的话，它将被清算。此外，Circle的收入模型主要是在这些储备金上产生的，而不是像其他加密公司一样的用户费用或交易费用。因此，我们应该根据其收入潜力，而不是抵押品的收入来重视圈子。”

Understanding Circle’s True Valuation

了解Circle的真实估值

Circle, the issuer of the popular USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin, is a well-known player in the digital payments industry. Currently, Circle manages the issuance of approximately $60 billion worth of USDC, all of which is backed by collateralized reserves in highly liquid assets such as U.S. Treasuries and cash equivalents.

Circle是受欢迎的美元硬币（USDC）Stablecoin的发行人，是数字支付行业的著名参与者。目前，Circle管理着大约600亿美元的USDC发行，所有这些都得到了高度流动资产（例如美国国债和现金等效物）的抵押储备的支持。

This large reserve figure often leads some to believe that the company itself is valued at $60 billion, but Dom clarifies that this isn’t the case. The assets are specifically allocated to back the stablecoins in circulation, not to build up Circle’s balance sheet. Instead, Circle generates revenue through the yield realized on these reserves.

这个大型储备金通常会导致一些人认为该公司本身的价值为600亿美元，但Dom澄清说并非如此。这些资产专门分配以备份循环中的稳定币，而不是建立Circle的资产负债表。相反，Circle通过在这些储量上实现的收益产生收入。

This yield—accumulated from interest on short-term government securities and other low-risk instruments—contributes to Circle’s earnings, which in turn determine its enterprise valuation.

这种收益率 - 从短期政府证券和其他低风险工具的利息中获取，归因于Circle的收入，这反过来又决定了其企业估值。

Ripple’s Acquisition Logic Doesn’t Support a $20 Billion Bid

Ripple的收购逻辑不支持200亿美元的出价

Considering this business model, Dom argues that Circle’s $5 billion IPO valuation is a more accurate assessment of its income potential. From a corporate finance standpoint, it’s unlikely that Ripple would offer a premium of 4x over that figure, especially since the collateral backing USDC isn’t transferrable or revenue-generating.

考虑到这种业务模式，Dom认为Circle的50亿美元IPO估值是对其收入潜力的更准确评估。从公司金融的角度来看，Ripple不太可能提供4倍的溢价，尤其是因为抵押品支持USDC无法转让或产生收入。

With its own ambitions in the stablecoin space and broader payments ecosystem, Ripple has little incentive to overpay for Circle. The company recently announced its entry into the stablecoin market with RLUSD, a new XRP Ledger-native stablecoin backed 1:1 by U.S. dollar reserves.

Ripple凭借自己在Stablecoin空间中的野心和更广泛的付款生态系统，几乎没有动力过多付圈。该公司最近宣布了RLUSD进入Stablecoin市场，这是一款新的XRP Ledger-native stablecoin，以美元储备为1：1。

As Ripple is now launching its own digital dollar equivalent, a $20 billion acquisition bid for a competitor seems even less plausible. The decision to acquire a company like Circle would depend on various factors, including current revenue, future cash flows, regulatory risks, and market competitive landscape.

随着Ripple现在正在推出自己的数字美元同等价值，因此对竞争对手的200亿美元收购竞标似乎甚至不太合理。收购Circle这样的公司的决定取决于各种因素，包括当前收入，未来现金流，监管风险和市场竞争格局。

Given the increasing regulatory scrutiny on stablecoins and Circle’s revenue model, which is largely dependent on interest rates, paying a high premium would carry significant risks.

鉴于对Stablecoins和Circle的收入模式的监管审查越来越大，这在很大程度上取决于利率，因此支付高保费将带来重大风险。

Market Misunderstandings and Misinformation

市场误解和错误信息

Dom’s post also touches upon a broader misunderstanding within the crypto community: conflating collateral managed by a company with its equity value. This oversight can inflate company valuations, especially in the stablecoin sector, where a large portion of assets are held in custody.

DOM的帖子还涉及加密社区中更广泛的误解：由拥有其股权价值的公司管理的抵押品混乱。这种疏忽可能会夸大公司的估值，尤其是在Stablecoin行业，那里有大量资产被拘留。

To be clear, the $60 billion in assets isn’t available for Circle to use for growth or acquisitions. These funds are specifically allocated to redeem USDC if needed.

需要明确的是，不可用于增长或收购的600亿美元资产。如果需要，这些资金专门分配以赎回USDC。

Instead, Circle’s enterprise value should be assessed through more standard metrics, such as revenue potential from interest earnings, future growth prospects, expansion of their user base, and strategic positioning in the broader market. All of these fundamentals contribute to the $5 billion valuation, not the speculative $20 billion figure.

取而代之的是，应通过更标准的指标来评估Circle的企业价值，例如利息收入，未来增长前景，其用户群的扩展以及在更广泛的市场中的战略定位。所有这些基本面都促进了50亿美元的估值，而不是投机性的200亿美元数字。

Rational Valuations in an Evolving Ecosystem

不断发展的生态系统中的理性估值

As the competition in the stablecoin market intensifies with new entrants like PayPal and financial institutions joining the space, strategic acquisitions will likely play a role in shaping the future of digital finance. However, companies like Ripple, which take a calculated, enterprise-focused approach, are unlikely to be easily enticed into making such moves.

随着Stablecoin市场的竞争加剧了贝宝（Paypal）和金融机构加入该空间的新进入者，战略收购可能会在塑造数字金融的未来中发挥作用。但是，像Ripple这样的公司（采用以企业为中心的方法）不太可能很容易被诱使采取这种行动。

Ripple is known for its focus on utility, scalability, and sustainable revenue models, which suggests they wouldn’t be easily swayed by hype. Dom’s breakdown of Circle’s valuation highlights why any serious acquisition offer would be grounded in financial reality.

Ripple以关注效用，可伸缩性和可持续收入模型而闻名，这表明它们不会轻易炒作。 Dom对Circle的估值的细分突显了为什么任何认真的收购要约都将基于财务现实。