美國國庫債券收益率的上升加劇了人們對更嚴格的財務狀況的擔憂，並且隨著全球市場與波動的增長抗爭，潛在的衰退風險。

美國國庫債券收益率的上升加劇了人們對更嚴格的財務狀況的擔憂，並且隨著全球市場與波動的增長抗爭，潛在的衰退風險。

The implications of Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields are being closely watched by global markets, which are grappling with heightened volatility and potential recession risks.

全球市場正在密切關注美國國庫債券收益率上升的含義，這些市場正在努力應對的波動和潛在的衰退風險。

The yield on the benchmark 10‑year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.45% on Thursday, May 15, while the 30‑year bond yield reached 5%, a level not seen since 2007. In the shorter end of the yield curve, the 2‑year note climbed to 3.96%, leaving the 10‑2 spread at 0.49%.

5月15日星期四，基準10年美國國庫的基準收益率上升至4.45％，而30年的債券收益率達到5％，這是自2007年以來未見的水平。在較短的產量曲線端，2年的票據升至3.96％，使10-2的分佈率為0.49％。

The sharper-than-expected increase in shorter-term yields, in particular, could be attributed to market speculators anticipating a more hawkish central bank, continued high rates, and ultimately, a recession.

尤其是近期期收益率的增長，可能歸因於市場投機者預計會有更鷹派中央銀行，持續較高的利率，最終是經濟衰退。

This scenario would further strain households and businesses through higher borrowing costs. As yields rise, bond prices typically fall, potentially pressuring the portfolios of institutional investors like pension funds.

這種情況將通過更高的借貸成本進一步構成家庭和企業的損害。隨著收益率的上升，債券價格通常會下跌，可能會施加養老基金等機構投資者的投資組合。

Moreover, the narrowing gap between short- and long-term yields—a potential precursor to another inversion—has historically preceded recessions. The 2-year yield’s faster ascent compared to the 30-year suggests markets anticipate nearer-term economic cooling despite longer-term uncertainty.

此外，短期和長期產量之間的狹窄差距（這是另一種反演的潛在先兆）歷史上是衰退的。與30年的30年相比，這項2年的收益率更快地表明，儘管長期不確定性，但市場預計，儘管如此，市場預計將近期經濟冷卻。

Higher yields also translate directly to costlier mortgages, auto loans, and corporate debt. According to Federal Reserve data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at around 7% in May 2025.

較高的收益率也直接轉化為抵押貸款，汽車貸款和公司債務。根據美聯儲的數據，2025年5月的平均30年固定抵押貸款利率約為7％。

As the U.S. Treasuries serve as a benchmark for sovereign debt, emerging economies, especially those with dollar-denominated debt, might experience capital flight and currency depreciation as investors seek safer haven assets.

由於美國國債是主權債務的基準，因此新興經濟體，尤其是那些以美元計價的債務的經濟體，可能會在投資者尋求更安全的避風港資產時經歷資本飛行和貨幣貶值。

Yields in Australia and the U.K. mirrored the U.S. spike, converging around 4%, while Japan saw its 30-year bond yield hit a 21-year high of 1.9%.

澳大利亞和英國的收益率反映了美國的尖峰，匯聚約為4％，而日本的債券收益率達到21年高1.9％。

Central banks across the globe are now confronting a critical policy tightrope. The Federal Reserve faces pressure to cut interest rates and ease borrowing costs but risks reigniting inflation. Similarly, the European Central Bank and Bank of England are grappling with the same threats, which might be exacerbated by recent U.S. tariff policies.

全球中央銀行現在正在面對關鍵的政策繩索。美聯儲面臨降低利率和緩解借貸成本的壓力，但風險重新引起通貨膨脹。同樣，歐洲中央銀行和英格蘭銀行也應對相同的威脅，這可能會因最近的美國關稅政策而加劇。

The Trump administration’s proposed tariffs on a range of goods imported from China and other nations have further muddied the outlook, spooking investors and amplifying the swings in the bond market.

特朗普政府對從中國進口的一系列商品的擬議關稅進一步掩蓋了前景，嚇到了投資者，並擴大了債券市場中的波動。

While some analysts believe the yield surge is a factor of transient volatility, others warn it may foreshadow a protracted economic slowdown.

儘管一些分析家認為產量激增是短暫波動的一個因素，但另一些分析人士警告說，它可能預示了持久的經濟放緩。

The X account Endgame Macro told its 29,000 social media followers that global 30-year bond yields are surging to multi-year highs, signaling a structural shift—not inflation or growth optimism, but a rejection of long-term debt.

X帳戶最終遊戲宏告訴其29,000個社交媒體追隨者，全球30年債券收益率正在飆升至多年高點，這表明結構性轉變 - 不是通貨膨脹或增長樂觀，而是對長期債務的拒絕。

“The 30Y yields around the world are at levels not seen in decades. Not because of inflation or belief in high growth, but because there is no demand for long-term bonds at low yields,” the account explained.

該帳戶解釋說：“幾十年來，世界各地的30年收益率在幾十年中沒有看到。不是因為通貨膨脹或對高增長的信念，而是因為對低收益率的長期債券沒有需求。”

According to Endgame Macro, investors distrust fiscal paths and central banks, ultimately demanding higher yields. This exposes fragile demand, leaving cornered policymakers with no choice but to comply, and finally risks to assets reliant on cheap money.

據《殘局》（Endgame）宏觀說法，投資者不信任財政道路和中央銀行，最終要求更高的收益率。這暴露了脆弱的需求，使拐彎處的決策者別無選擇，只能遵守，最終冒著依靠便宜錢的資產。

“This is not the end of the debt cycle. It’s the part where the illusion of infinite demand dies and real yield premiums return with a vengeance,” the account stressed. “If you’re not watching the 30Y yield right now, you’re missing the most honest signal in the market.”

該帳戶強調說：“這不是債務週期的終結。這是無限需求的幻覺死亡和實際收益率隨報復返回的部分。” “如果您現在不在觀看30年的收益率，那麼您會缺少市場上最誠實的信號。”

With global growth forecasts being trimmed and stock markets wobbling slightly as capital shifts to bonds, investors will be keeping a close eye on how this story develops.

隨著全球增長預測的修剪，隨著資本轉移到債券的轉移，股市略有搖擺，投資者將密切關注這個故事的發展。

The movements in yield levels—and the cascading impacts they set in motion—are poised to reshape the trajectory of global finance.

產量水平的運動以及級聯的影響，他們有助於重塑全球金融的軌跡。