美国国库债券收益率的上升加剧了人们对更严格的财务状况的担忧，并且随着全球市场与波动的增长抗争，潜在的衰退风险。

美国国库债券收益率的上升加剧了人们对更严格的财务状况的担忧，并且随着全球市场与波动的增长抗争，潜在的衰退风险。

The implications of Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields are being closely watched by global markets, which are grappling with heightened volatility and potential recession risks.

全球市场正在密切关注美国国库债券收益率上升的含义，这些市场正在努力应对的波动和潜在的衰退风险。

The yield on the benchmark 10‑year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.45% on Thursday, May 15, while the 30‑year bond yield reached 5%, a level not seen since 2007. In the shorter end of the yield curve, the 2‑year note climbed to 3.96%, leaving the 10‑2 spread at 0.49%.

5月15日星期四，基准10年美国国库的基准收益率上升至4.45％，而30年的债券收益率达到5％，这是自2007年以来未见的水平。在较短的产量曲线端，2年的票据升至3.96％，使10-2的分布率为0.49％。

The sharper-than-expected increase in shorter-term yields, in particular, could be attributed to market speculators anticipating a more hawkish central bank, continued high rates, and ultimately, a recession.

尤其是近期期收益率的增长，可能归因于市场投机者预计会有更鹰派中央银行，持续较高的利率，最终是经济衰退。

This scenario would further strain households and businesses through higher borrowing costs. As yields rise, bond prices typically fall, potentially pressuring the portfolios of institutional investors like pension funds.

这种情况将通过更高的借贷成本进一步构成家庭和企业的损害。随着收益率的上升，债券价格通常会下跌，可能会施加养老基金等机构投资者的投资组合。

Moreover, the narrowing gap between short- and long-term yields—a potential precursor to another inversion—has historically preceded recessions. The 2-year yield’s faster ascent compared to the 30-year suggests markets anticipate nearer-term economic cooling despite longer-term uncertainty.

此外，短期和长期产量之间的狭窄差距（这是另一种反演的潜在先兆）历史上是衰退的。与30年的30年相比，这项2年的收益率更快地表明，尽管长期不确定性，但市场预计，尽管如此，市场预计将近期经济冷却。

Higher yields also translate directly to costlier mortgages, auto loans, and corporate debt. According to Federal Reserve data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at around 7% in May 2025.

较高的收益率也直接转化为抵押贷款，汽车贷款和公司债务。根据美联储的数据，2025年5月的平均30年固定抵押贷款利率约为7％。

As the U.S. Treasuries serve as a benchmark for sovereign debt, emerging economies, especially those with dollar-denominated debt, might experience capital flight and currency depreciation as investors seek safer haven assets.

由于美国国债是主权债务的基准，因此新兴经济体，尤其是那些以美元计价的债务的经济体，可能会在投资者寻求更安全的避风港资产时经历资本飞行和货币贬值。

Yields in Australia and the U.K. mirrored the U.S. spike, converging around 4%, while Japan saw its 30-year bond yield hit a 21-year high of 1.9%.

澳大利亚和英国的收益率反映了美国的尖峰，汇聚约为4％，而日本的债券收益率达到21年高1.9％。

Central banks across the globe are now confronting a critical policy tightrope. The Federal Reserve faces pressure to cut interest rates and ease borrowing costs but risks reigniting inflation. Similarly, the European Central Bank and Bank of England are grappling with the same threats, which might be exacerbated by recent U.S. tariff policies.

全球中央银行现在正在面对关键的政策绳索。美联储面临降低利率和缓解借贷成本的压力，但风险重新引起通货膨胀。同样，欧洲中央银行和英格兰银行也应对相同的威胁，这可能会因最近的美国关税政策而加剧。

The Trump administration’s proposed tariffs on a range of goods imported from China and other nations have further muddied the outlook, spooking investors and amplifying the swings in the bond market.

特朗普政府对从中国进口的一系列商品的拟议关税进一步掩盖了前景，吓到了投资者，并扩大了债券市场中的波动。

While some analysts believe the yield surge is a factor of transient volatility, others warn it may foreshadow a protracted economic slowdown.

尽管一些分析家认为产量激增是短暂波动的一个因素，但另一些分析人士警告说，它可能预示了持久的经济放缓。

The X account Endgame Macro told its 29,000 social media followers that global 30-year bond yields are surging to multi-year highs, signaling a structural shift—not inflation or growth optimism, but a rejection of long-term debt.

X帐户最终游戏宏告诉其29,000个社交媒体追随者，全球30年债券收益率正在飙升至多年高点，这表明结构性转变 - 不是通货膨胀或增长乐观，而是对长期债务的拒绝。

“The 30Y yields around the world are at levels not seen in decades. Not because of inflation or belief in high growth, but because there is no demand for long-term bonds at low yields,” the account explained.

该帐户解释说：“几十年来，世界各地的30年收益率在几十年中没有看到。不是因为通货膨胀或对高增长的信念，而是因为对低收益率的长期债券没有需求。”

According to Endgame Macro, investors distrust fiscal paths and central banks, ultimately demanding higher yields. This exposes fragile demand, leaving cornered policymakers with no choice but to comply, and finally risks to assets reliant on cheap money.

据《残局》（Endgame）宏观说法，投资者不信任财政道路和中央银行，最终要求更高的收益率。这暴露了脆弱的需求，使拐弯处的决策者别无选择，只能遵守，最终冒着依靠便宜钱的资产。

“This is not the end of the debt cycle. It’s the part where the illusion of infinite demand dies and real yield premiums return with a vengeance,” the account stressed. “If you’re not watching the 30Y yield right now, you’re missing the most honest signal in the market.”

该帐户强调说：“这不是债务周期的终结。这是无限需求的幻觉死亡和实际收益率随报复返回的部分。” “如果您现在不在观看30年的收益率，那么您会缺少市场上最诚实的信号。”

With global growth forecasts being trimmed and stock markets wobbling slightly as capital shifts to bonds, investors will be keeping a close eye on how this story develops.

随着全球增长预测的修剪，随着资本转移到债券的转移，股市略有摇摆，投资者将密切关注这个故事的发展。

The movements in yield levels—and the cascading impacts they set in motion—are poised to reshape the trajectory of global finance.

产量水平的运动以及级联的影响，他们有助于重塑全球金融的轨迹。