雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）警告在貿易和債務失衡的情況下，全球秩序轉移

Bridgewater Associates的創始人Ray Dalio對當前的全球經濟和政治環境進行了清醒的評估。

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, has issued a stark warning about a coming "big change in the world order."

投資公司Bridgewater Associates的億萬富翁創始人雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）向“世界秩序的重大變化”發出了明顯的警告。

In a recent post on LinkedIn, Dalio highlighted several key imbalances and trends that he believes are converging to drive a major realignment in the global economic and political landscape.

在最近的關於LinkedIn的文章中，Dalio強調了他認為正在融合全球經濟和政治格局的重大重新調整的幾種關鍵失衡和趨勢。

These shifts, ranging from unsustainable trade and capital imbalances to rising deglobalization and deteriorating relations between major powers, will have profound implications for investors, policymakers, and citizens around the world.

這些轉變範圍從不可持續的貿易和資本失衡到脫頭化和主要大國之間的關係惡化，將對全球投資者，政策制定者和公民產生深遠的影響。

What Is Happening to The Global Economic Order?

全球經濟秩序發生了什麼？

Many exporters and importers are cutting back on their U.S. ties. They realize that the tariff disputes and broader tensions are unlikely to fully resolve.

許多出口商和進口商都在削減美國聯繫。他們意識到關稅糾紛和更廣泛的緊張局勢不太可能完全解決。

Also, both U.S. and Chinese companies and investors, and those who rely on their trade relations, are making other plans to reduce interdependence.

同樣，美國和中國公司和投資者以及依靠貿易關係的人都在製定其他計劃來減少相互依存關係。

This trend, which began with U.S.-China relations, is now affecting other global markets, capital flows, and even military alliances.

這種趨勢始於美國 - 中國關係，現在正在影響其他全球市場，資本流程甚至軍事聯盟。

It's also becoming clear that the U.S. role as the world’s largest consumer of goods and issuer of debt is increasingly viewed as unsustainable.

同樣清楚的是，美國作為世界上最大的商品消費者和債務發行人的作用越來越被視為不可持續。

The thinking that the U.S. will pay back its debt in an assumed-stable dollar is “simpleminded and flawed.”

認為美國將以假定的穩定美元償還債務的想法“簡單化和有缺陷”。

As these imbalances worsen and deglobalization proceeds, the risks of financial and political disruption will grow.

隨著這些失衡的惡化和顫抖性的發展，財務和政治破壞的風險將增加。

We are approaching a point of no return in the global monetary system, domestic politics, and international relations.

我們正在接近全球貨幣體系，國內政治和國際關係的任何回報。

Other countries are preparing by forging new economic and political links.

其他國家正在通過建立新的經濟和政治聯繫來準備。

What Happens Next

接下來會發生什麼

With calm, analytical policymaking, these transitions can be managed constructively. We need cooperative rebalancing strategies, like the “3-Part, 3-Percent Solution” that I described in my book, How Countries Go Broke.

通過平靜，分析的決策，可以建設性地管理這些過渡。我們需要合作的重新平衡策略，例如我在書中描述的“三部分，3％的解決方案”，《國家如何破產》。

But the current path of conflict and volatility will lead to irreversible consequences.

但是當前的衝突和波動性道路將導致不可逆轉的後果。

Investors and policymakers should focus on these underlying shifts, not short-term market moves. They need thoughtful, coordinated responses to these historic changes.

投資者和政策制定者應專注於這些基本轉變，而不是短期市場的轉變。他們需要對這些歷史性變化的周到，協調的回應。