雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）警告在贸易和债务失衡的情况下，全球秩序转移

Bridgewater Associates的创始人Ray Dalio对当前的全球经济和政治环境进行了清醒的评估。

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, has issued a stark warning about a coming "big change in the world order."

投资公司Bridgewater Associates的亿万富翁创始人雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）向“世界秩序的重大变化”发出了明显的警告。

In a recent post on LinkedIn, Dalio highlighted several key imbalances and trends that he believes are converging to drive a major realignment in the global economic and political landscape.

在最近的关于LinkedIn的文章中，Dalio强调了他认为正在融合全球经济和政治格局的重大重新调整的几种关键失衡和趋势。

These shifts, ranging from unsustainable trade and capital imbalances to rising deglobalization and deteriorating relations between major powers, will have profound implications for investors, policymakers, and citizens around the world.

这些转变范围从不可持续的贸易和资本失衡到脱头化和主要大国之间的关系恶化，将对全球投资者，政策制定者和公民产生深远的影响。

What Is Happening to The Global Economic Order?

全球经济秩序发生了什么？

Many exporters and importers are cutting back on their U.S. ties. They realize that the tariff disputes and broader tensions are unlikely to fully resolve.

许多出口商和进口商都在削减美国联系。他们意识到关税纠纷和更广泛的紧张局势不太可能完全解决。

Also, both U.S. and Chinese companies and investors, and those who rely on their trade relations, are making other plans to reduce interdependence.

同样，美国和中国公司和投资者以及依靠贸易关系的人都在制定其他计划来减少相互依存关系。

This trend, which began with U.S.-China relations, is now affecting other global markets, capital flows, and even military alliances.

这种趋势始于美国 - 中国关系，现在正在影响其他全球市场，资本流程甚至军事联盟。

It's also becoming clear that the U.S. role as the world’s largest consumer of goods and issuer of debt is increasingly viewed as unsustainable.

同样清楚的是，美国作为世界上最大的商品消费者和债务发行人的作用越来越被视为不可持续。

The thinking that the U.S. will pay back its debt in an assumed-stable dollar is “simpleminded and flawed.”

认为美国将以假定的稳定美元偿还债务的想法“简单化和有缺陷”。

As these imbalances worsen and deglobalization proceeds, the risks of financial and political disruption will grow.

随着这些失衡的恶化和颤抖性的发展，财务和政治破坏的风险将增加。

We are approaching a point of no return in the global monetary system, domestic politics, and international relations.

我们正在接近全球货币体系，国内政治和国际关系的任何回报。

Other countries are preparing by forging new economic and political links.

其他国家正在通过建立新的经济和政治联系来准备。

What Happens Next

接下来会发生什么

With calm, analytical policymaking, these transitions can be managed constructively. We need cooperative rebalancing strategies, like the “3-Part, 3-Percent Solution” that I described in my book, How Countries Go Broke.

通过平静，分析的决策，可以建设性地管理这些过渡。我们需要合作的重新平衡策略，例如我在书中描述的“三部分，3％的解决方案”，《国家如何破产》。

But the current path of conflict and volatility will lead to irreversible consequences.

但是当前的冲突和波动性道路将导致不可逆转的后果。

Investors and policymakers should focus on these underlying shifts, not short-term market moves. They need thoughtful, coordinated responses to these historic changes.

投资者和政策制定者应专注于这些基本转变，而不是短期市场的转变。他们需要对这些历史性变化的周到，协调的回应。