MVRV比為分析鏡頭，而不是預測工具

隨著我們分享機構研究合作夥伴的見解，請跟上最新的加密市場評論。

Keep up with the latest in crypto market commentary as we share the insights from our institutional research partners.

隨著我們分享機構研究合作夥伴的見解，請跟上最新的加密市場評論。

In this edition, Presto Research delves into how Bitcoin's MVRV ratio could be used as an analytical lens rather than a predictive tool, with evolving network dynamics such as declining on-chain volume and increasing institutional adoption.

在此版本中，Presto Research研究瞭如何將比特幣的MVRV比率用作分析鏡頭而不是預測工具，而不斷發展的網絡動態，例如鍊接數量下降和增加機構採用。

Since Bitcoin’s inception, a myriad of approaches have sought to pin down its elusive fair value, navigating the uncharted waters of this novel asset class. Among these, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has gained traction as a leading valuation metric in the crypto industry. Yet, too often, MVRV is narrowly wielded as a mere price predictor, a reductive lens that obscures its deeper potential, while inviting skepticism due to its inherent limitations.

自比特幣成立以來，無數方法試圖釘住其難以捉摸的公允價值，從而導致了這種新穎的資產類別的未知水域。其中，作為加密行業的領先估值指標，實現價值（MVRV）的市場價值（MVRV）的價值已獲得。然而，經常將MVRV作為價格預測變數狹窄地揮舞，這是一種掩蓋其更深潛力的還原鏡頭，同時由於其固有的局限性引起了懷疑。

This report ventures beyond such confines, illuminating MVRV’s true capabilities. First, we explore its conventional application, highlighting its foundational mechanics. Next, we examine why Bitcoin’s recent transformations – spanning investor behavior, network infrastructure, and mainstream adoption – render traditional approaches less effective. Finally, we offer a refined perspective, advocating for a holistic approach to leverage MVRV as a tool for decoding the Bitcoin network’s evolving fundamentals.

該報告涉及此類範圍之外，闡明了MVRV的真正能力。首先，我們探討了其常規應用，突出了其基礎力學。接下來，我們研究了為什麼比特幣最近的轉型 - 跨越投資者的行為，網絡基礎架構和主流採用 - 使傳統方法的效率降低。最後，我們提供了一種精緻的觀點，主張採用整體方法來利用MVRV作為解碼比特幣網絡不斷發展的基本面的工具。

1. MVRV Recap: The Standard Approach

1。 MVRV回顧：標準方法

Popularized by CoinMetrics since December 2018, MVRV has become a widely cited metric for valuing the Bitcoin network. This section explores its concept and the factors driving the metric.

自2018年12月以來，MVRV自2018年12月以來就被Coinmetrics普及了，已成為評估比特幣網絡的廣泛引用的指標。本節探討了其概念以及推動指標的因素。

2.1. Definition

2.1。定義

The Formula for MVRV Ratio is as below:

MVRV比率的公式如下：

MVRV Ratio = Market Value / Realized Value

MVRV比率=市場價值 /已實現價值

where,

在哪裡，

Market Value (MV): The value of the circulating Bitcoin supply at the current price, akin to equity market capitalization, with all BTC valued at a single price.

市場價值（MV）：以當前價格循環比特幣供應的價值，類似於股票市值，所有BTC的價值都以單個價格的價值。

Realized Value (RV): The value of the circulating Bitcoin supply based on the price when each BTC last moved on-chain, with each BTC valued at its respective price and then aggregated.

實現價值（RV）：每個BTC上一次鏈上移動鏈上時，循環比特幣供應的價值，每個BTC以各自的價格估值，然後匯總。

Figure 1: Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Since Inception

圖1：自成立以來比特幣的MVRV比率

Source: Blockchain.com, Presto Research

資料來源：Blockchain.com，Presto Research

2.2. Standard Interpretation

2.2。標準解釋

2.2.1. Realized Value

2.2.1。實現價值

Unlike MV, which is straightforward, RV may be less intuitive for new industry entrants. Technically, it is calculated by valuing each Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) at the price when it was created. For valuation purposes, framing it in one of the following three ways can aid understanding.

與直接的MV不同，RV對於新的行業參與者可能不太直觀。從技術上講，它是通過以創建時的價格評估每個未解決的交易輸出（UTXO）來計算的。出於估值目的，以以下三種方式之一將其構建可以幫助理解。

The Bitcoin blockchain serves as the official transaction ledger, where only on-chain transactions are considered the sole source of truth.

比特幣區塊鍊是正式的交易分類帳，只有鏈交易被認為是真理的唯一來源。

Inactive coins, being dormant and unused, are underweighted from the network's value. RV effectively marginalizes them from valuation.

處於休眠狀態和未使用的不活動硬幣與網絡價值相比不足。 RV有效地使他們從估值中邊緣化。

Derived from market price and on-chain transfer volume, RV weights coins based on their actual activity in the Bitcoin economy.

RV源自市場價格和鏈上轉移量，根據其在比特幣經濟中的實際活動。

Seen this way, the MVRV ratio also somewhat resembles the price-to-book ratio (PBR) in equity valuation. Book value reflects a company’s worth, calculated as the residual value of assets minus liabilities, based on agreed-upon accounting standards. Similarly, by treating on-chain transactions as the standard for "true price discovery," RV serves as a foundational measure of the Bitcoin network’s value, while broader and real-time price discovery occurs mostly through off-chain transactions.

看到這種方式，MVRV比率在股票估值中也有些類似於價格比率（PBR）。賬面價值反映了公司的價值，該價值根據約定的會計標準計算為資產減去負債的剩餘價值。同樣，通過將鏈交易視為“真正價格發現”的標準，RV是對比特幣網絡價值的基礎度量，而更廣泛的實時價格發現主要是通過非鏈交易發生的。

2.2.2. The Relationship Between MV and RV

2.2.2。 MV和RV之間的關係

Since only a portion of the circulating Bitcoin supply changes hands on-chain at any given time, MV is typically, but not always, a multiple of RV. Comparing the current MVRV multiple to its historical range can therefore help assess the Bitcoin network’s valuation.

由於在任何給定時間，只有一部分循環比特幣供應在鏈上換手，因此MV通常是但並非總是是RV的倍數。因此，將當前的MVRV倍數與其歷史範圍進行比較可以幫助評估比特幣網絡的估值。

For example, BTC currently trades at an MVRV Ratio of 1.93, near the midpoint of its historical range. Since inception, BTC has spent only 15% of its time below an MVRV Ratio of 1 and 6% above 3.2, often interpreted as oversold or overbought zones, respectively. This concept particularly makes sense if one subscribes to the view that RV represents a weighted average of on-chain transaction values, or the "cost basis" for all BTC held in circulation. The MVRV ratio then can be viewed as aggregate profit margins for coin holders, potentially influencing buying or selling behavior – e.g., triggering profit-taking en masse at 3x return.

例如，BTC目前以MVRV比率為1.93的MVRV交易，其歷史範圍的中點接近。自成立以來，BTC僅花費15％的時間以低於MVRV的比率為1和6％以上的3.2，通常被解釋為分別為超賣或過分買賣區。如果人們訂閱RV代錶鍊上交易值的加權平均值或所有循環中所有BTC的“成本基礎”的觀點，則此概念特別有意義。然後，MVRV的比率可以看作是硬幣持有人的總利潤率，可能會影響買賣行為 - 例如，在3倍返回時觸發利潤。

3. Rethinking MVRV for Bitcoin's New Era

3。重新考慮比特幣新時代的MVRV

MVRV is a valuation framework. As with all frameworks, understanding its assumptions and shortcomings is key to using the tool effectively. One major assumption with the conventional approach is ceteris paribus, or “other things being equal.” When the judgment on the valuation level relies on historical comparison, one implicitly assumes that the operating environment surrounding the network remains constant. Otherwise, the past valuation band would not hold much relevance.

MVRV是一個估值框架。與所有框架一樣，了解其假設和缺點是有效使用該工具的關鍵。傳統方法的一個主要假設是ceteris paribus或“其他事物相等”。當對估值水平的判斷取決於歷史比較時，隱含地假設網絡周圍的操作環境保持恆定。否則，過去的估值樂隊將不會具有太大的相關性。

Equity valuation metrics, such as price-to-

股權評估指標，例如價格到價格