MVRV比为分析镜头，而不是预测工具

随着我们分享机构研究合作伙伴的见解，请跟上最新的加密市场评论。

Keep up with the latest in crypto market commentary as we share the insights from our institutional research partners.

随着我们分享机构研究合作伙伴的见解，请跟上最新的加密市场评论。

In this edition, Presto Research delves into how Bitcoin's MVRV ratio could be used as an analytical lens rather than a predictive tool, with evolving network dynamics such as declining on-chain volume and increasing institutional adoption.

在此版本中，Presto Research研究了如何将比特币的MVRV比率用作分析镜头而不是预测工具，而不断发展的网络动态，例如链接数量下降和增加机构采用。

Since Bitcoin’s inception, a myriad of approaches have sought to pin down its elusive fair value, navigating the uncharted waters of this novel asset class. Among these, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has gained traction as a leading valuation metric in the crypto industry. Yet, too often, MVRV is narrowly wielded as a mere price predictor, a reductive lens that obscures its deeper potential, while inviting skepticism due to its inherent limitations.

自比特币成立以来，无数方法试图钉住其难以捉摸的公允价值，从而导致了这种新颖的资产类别的未知水域。其中，作为加密行业的领先估值指标，实现价值（MVRV）的市场价值（MVRV）的价值已获得。然而，经常将MVRV作为价格预测变数狭窄地挥舞，这是一种掩盖其更深潜力的还原镜头，同时由于其固有的局限性引起了怀疑。

This report ventures beyond such confines, illuminating MVRV’s true capabilities. First, we explore its conventional application, highlighting its foundational mechanics. Next, we examine why Bitcoin’s recent transformations – spanning investor behavior, network infrastructure, and mainstream adoption – render traditional approaches less effective. Finally, we offer a refined perspective, advocating for a holistic approach to leverage MVRV as a tool for decoding the Bitcoin network’s evolving fundamentals.

该报告涉及此类范围之外，阐明了MVRV的真正能力。首先，我们探讨了其常规应用，突出了其基础力学。接下来，我们研究了为什么比特币最近的转型 - 跨越投资者的行为，网络基础架构和主流采用 - 使传统方法的效率降低。最后，我们提供了一种精致的观点，主张采用整体方法来利用MVRV作为解码比特币网络不断发展的基本面的工具。

1. MVRV Recap: The Standard Approach

1。MVRV回顾：标准方法

Popularized by CoinMetrics since December 2018, MVRV has become a widely cited metric for valuing the Bitcoin network. This section explores its concept and the factors driving the metric.

自2018年12月以来，MVRV自2018年12月以来就被Coinmetrics普及了，已成为评估比特币网络的广泛引用的指标。本节探讨了其概念以及推动指标的因素。

2.1. Definition

2.1。定义

The Formula for MVRV Ratio is as below:

MVRV比率的公式如下：

MVRV Ratio = Market Value / Realized Value

MVRV比率=市场价值 /已实现价值

where,

在哪里，

Market Value (MV): The value of the circulating Bitcoin supply at the current price, akin to equity market capitalization, with all BTC valued at a single price.

市场价值（MV）：以当前价格循环比特币供应的价值，类似于股票市值，所有BTC的价值都以单个价格的价值。

Realized Value (RV): The value of the circulating Bitcoin supply based on the price when each BTC last moved on-chain, with each BTC valued at its respective price and then aggregated.

实现价值（RV）：每个BTC上一次链上移动链上时，循环比特币供应的价值，每个BTC以各自的价格估值，然后汇总。

Figure 1: Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Since Inception

图1：自成立以来比特币的MVRV比率

Source: Blockchain.com, Presto Research

资料来源：Blockchain.com，Presto Research

2.2. Standard Interpretation

2.2。标准解释

2.2.1. Realized Value

2.2.1。实现价值

Unlike MV, which is straightforward, RV may be less intuitive for new industry entrants. Technically, it is calculated by valuing each Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) at the price when it was created. For valuation purposes, framing it in one of the following three ways can aid understanding.

与直接的MV不同，RV对于新的行业参与者可能不太直观。从技术上讲，它是通过以创建时的价格评估每个未解决的交易输出（UTXO）来计算的。出于估值目的，以以下三种方式之一将其构建可以帮助理解。

The Bitcoin blockchain serves as the official transaction ledger, where only on-chain transactions are considered the sole source of truth.

比特币区块链是正式的交易分类帐，只有链交易被认为是真理的唯一来源。

Inactive coins, being dormant and unused, are underweighted from the network's value. RV effectively marginalizes them from valuation.

处于休眠状态和未使用的不活动硬币与网络价值相比不足。 RV有效地使他们从估值中边缘化。

Derived from market price and on-chain transfer volume, RV weights coins based on their actual activity in the Bitcoin economy.

RV源自市场价格和链上转移量，根据其在比特币经济中的实际活动。

Seen this way, the MVRV ratio also somewhat resembles the price-to-book ratio (PBR) in equity valuation. Book value reflects a company’s worth, calculated as the residual value of assets minus liabilities, based on agreed-upon accounting standards. Similarly, by treating on-chain transactions as the standard for "true price discovery," RV serves as a foundational measure of the Bitcoin network’s value, while broader and real-time price discovery occurs mostly through off-chain transactions.

看到这种方式，MVRV比率在股票估值中也有些类似于价格比率（PBR）。账面价值反映了公司的价值，该价值根据约定的会计标准计算为资产减去负债的剩余价值。同样，通过将链交易视为“真正价格发现”的标准，RV是对比特币网络价值的基础度量，而更广泛的实时价格发现主要是通过非链交易发生的。

2.2.2. The Relationship Between MV and RV

2.2.2。 MV和RV之间的关系

Since only a portion of the circulating Bitcoin supply changes hands on-chain at any given time, MV is typically, but not always, a multiple of RV. Comparing the current MVRV multiple to its historical range can therefore help assess the Bitcoin network’s valuation.

由于在任何给定时间，只有一部分循环比特币供应在链上换手，因此MV通常是但并非总是是RV的倍数。因此，将当前的MVRV倍数与其历史范围进行比较可以帮助评估比特币网络的估值。

For example, BTC currently trades at an MVRV Ratio of 1.93, near the midpoint of its historical range. Since inception, BTC has spent only 15% of its time below an MVRV Ratio of 1 and 6% above 3.2, often interpreted as oversold or overbought zones, respectively. This concept particularly makes sense if one subscribes to the view that RV represents a weighted average of on-chain transaction values, or the "cost basis" for all BTC held in circulation. The MVRV ratio then can be viewed as aggregate profit margins for coin holders, potentially influencing buying or selling behavior – e.g., triggering profit-taking en masse at 3x return.

例如，BTC目前以MVRV比率为1.93的MVRV交易，其历史范围的中点接近。自成立以来，BTC仅花费15％的时间以低于MVRV的比率为1和6％以上的3.2，通常被解释为分别为超卖或过分买卖区。如果人们订阅RV代表链上交易值的加权平均值或所有循环中所有BTC的“成本基础”的观点，则此概念特别有意义。然后，MVRV的比率可以看作是硬币持有人的总利润率，可能会影响买卖行为 - 例如，在3倍返回时触发利润。

3. Rethinking MVRV for Bitcoin's New Era

3。重新考虑比特币新时代的MVRV

MVRV is a valuation framework. As with all frameworks, understanding its assumptions and shortcomings is key to using the tool effectively. One major assumption with the conventional approach is ceteris paribus, or “other things being equal.” When the judgment on the valuation level relies on historical comparison, one implicitly assumes that the operating environment surrounding the network remains constant. Otherwise, the past valuation band would not hold much relevance.

MVRV是一个估值框架。与所有框架一样，了解其假设和缺点是有效使用该工具的关键。传统方法的一个主要假设是ceteris paribus或“其他事物相等”。当对估值水平的判断取决于历史比较时，隐含地假设网络周围的操作环境保持恒定。否则，过去的估值乐队将不会具有太大的相关性。

Equity valuation metrics, such as price-to-

股权评估指标，例如价格到价格