琳·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）表示，穩定其金融體系的美元是必要的。

比特幣和黃金的位置良好，可以從脫衣化中受益。主權財富基金和各個國家已經在增加其比特幣的曝光率

The U.S. dollar (DXY) has been steadily weakening, a fact that is no longer making major headlines. With several disruptions unfolding in the American economy, the greenback’s decline has become part of the backdrop. Since the beginning of 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index has lost 11%, now trading at levels last seen in April 2022.

美元（DXY）一直在穩步削弱，這一事實不再是主要的頭條新聞。隨著美國經濟中的幾次破壞，綠背的下降已成為背景的一部分。自2025年初以來，美元指數損失了11％，現在在2022年4月出現的水平上交易。

Markets have largely responded with a shrug. After all, in times of deep restructuring, isn’t some dollar weakness to be expected?

市場在很大程度上聳了聳肩。畢竟，在重組深度重組的時候，難道不是有一些美元的弱點嗎？

But the fact that the dollar is sliding at all is noteworthy. And in a May 4 newsletter, independent market analyst Lyn Alden has argued that this weakness may be necessary for the U.S. to stabilize its financial system. According to Alden, a controlled retreat from dollar hegemony could be one of the few paths left to keep the fragile system afloat. And if the U.S. steps back from its role at the center of the monetary universe, the world will need alternatives. Neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin could be well-positioned to take on a more central role.

但是，美元滑行的事實值得注意。在5月4日的新聞通訊中，獨立市場分析師林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）認為，這種弱點對於美國穩定其金融體係可能是必要的。根據奧爾登（Alden）的說法，從美元霸權中受控的務虛會可能是使脆弱系統漂浮的少數路徑之一。如果美國退出其在貨幣宇宙中心的角色，世界將需要替代方案。黃金和比特幣等中性資產可以很好地扮演更中心的角色。

The U.S. and the dollar are in a ‘long-term transition’

美國和美元處於“長期過渡”

Fractional reserve banking, the system that fiat money relies on, creates money through lending. Each time a bank issues a loan, it expands the supply of broad money, without necessarily creating enough base money to cover the loan principal and its interest. This means that the current financial system relies on continual credit expansion and refinancing to remain solvent.

法定資金依賴的系統分數儲備銀行通過貸款創造了錢。每次銀行簽發貸款時，它都會擴大大量貨幣的供應，而無需創造足夠的基本資金來支付貸款本金及其利息。這意味著當前的金融系統依靠不斷的信貸擴張和再融資來保持溶劑。

Today, the U.S. has around $102 trillion in public and private dollar-denominated debt, with another $18 trillion owed by borrowers outside the U.S. And that’s not even counting derivatives, which would push the total much higher. Yet only $5.8 trillion in base money actually exists.

如今，美國擁有約1002萬億美元的公共和私人美元計價的債務，由美國以外的借款人又欠了18萬億美元，甚至還沒有計算衍生品，這將使總數更高。然而，實際上只有5.8萬億美元的基本貨幣。

The U.S. plays a special role in this system. It imports more than it exports, while surplus countries funnel their dollar earnings back into American stocks, bonds, real estate, and private equity. For the $18 trillion in dollar liabilities held abroad, non-U.S. entities hold roughly $61 trillion in U.S. dollar assets. But when dollar liquidity tightens — when the music stops — foreign holders often have to sell those assets to service their debts, which, in turn, threatens U.S. financial stability.

美國在該系統中發揮了特殊作用。它的進口超過出口，而盈餘國家將其美元收益匯回美國股票，債券，房地產和私募股權。對於在國外舉行的18萬億美元的美元負債，非美國實體持有約61萬億美元的美元資產。但是，當美元的流動性收緊時 - 當音樂停止時 - 外國持有人通常必須出售這些資產來償還其債務，這反過來又威脅到美國的財務穩定。

This happened in March 2020, when parts of the Treasury market froze during the peak panic stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed stepped in, quickly opening emergency swap lines with foreign central banks and printing trillions in base money to re-float the system. That solved the liquidity issue but unleashed inflation, hitting lower-income Americans the hardest.

這發生在2020年3月，當時美國國庫市場的部分地區在COVID-19-19大流行的高峰階段凍結。美聯儲介入，迅速與外國中央銀行打開緊急掉期線，並以基本資金打印數万億美元以重新融化該系統。這解決了流動性問題，但釋放了通貨膨脹，使低收入美國人最難擊中。

Combined with decades of industrial decline and widening social gaps, this situation eventually created the political mandate for Donald Trump and his protectionist agenda. However, the tariff shock is unlikely to be successful. The current system implies that the U.S. must run structural trade deficits to provide the global economy with enough dollars to keep the greenback’s dominance. The only way of rebalancing trade flows is through a weak dollar and a step back from monetary hegemony.

加上數十年的工業衰落和社會差距的擴大，這種情況最終為唐納德·特朗普及其貿易保護主義議程創造了政治任務。但是，關稅衝擊不太可能成功。當前的系統意味著美國必須經營結構性貿易赤字，以為全球經濟提供足夠的美元以保持綠色的統治地位。重新平衡貿易流量的唯一方法是通過微弱的美元和貨幣霸權的後退。

As Alden puts it,

正如奧爾登所說的那樣

If the U.S. tries to maintain a strong dollar while also reducing its trade deficit, it will encounter significant difficulties. If the U.S. attempts to maintain its trade deficit while strengthening the dollar, it may face issues with inflation and liquidity in the global financial system. Finally, if the U.S. tries to reduce both its trade deficit and strengthen the dollar, it will likely encounter difficulties on multiple fronts, leading to a broader economic downturn.

如果美國試圖在減少其貿易赤字的同時維持強勁的美元，它將遇到很大的困難。如果美國試圖在加強美元的同時維持其貿易赤字，那麼它可能會面臨全球金融體系中通貨膨脹和流動性的問題。最後，如果美國試圖減少其貿易赤字並加強美元，那麼它可能會在多個方面遇到困難，從而導致更廣泛的經濟低迷。

The Bitcoin to DXY relationship

比特幣與DXY關係

Bitcoin (BTC) and DXY are inversely correlated. When the dollar strengthens, risk-on assets like BTC lose some of their appeal to investors. When the dollar weakens, BTC becomes more attractive not just as a speculative play, but as an alternative currency. In a system where fiat must effectively lose value over time to function, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and monetary neutrality offer a compelling hedge.

比特幣（BTC）和DXY成反比。當美元加強時，像BTC這樣的風險資產失去了對投資者的吸引力。當美元削弱時，BTC不僅會成為投機性遊戲，而且成為替代貨幣的吸引力。在菲亞特必須有效地失去價值的系統中，比特幣的固定供應和貨幣中立性提供了令人信服的樹籬。

Overlaying BTC and DXY charts reveals that major divergences between the two often align with Bitcoin trend reversals. In April 2018 and March 2022, such divergences signaled bear markets, while November 2020 marked the start of a bullish rally.

覆蓋BTC和DXY圖表表明，兩者之間的主要差異通常與比特幣趨勢逆轉保持一致。 2018年4月和2022年3月，這種分歧標誌著熊市，而2020年11月標誌著看漲集會的開始。

In the 2023-2026 cycle, BTC caught up with the DXY in early 2024, and the two moved largely in sync until recently. A clear divergence began at the beginning of April 2025, with the DXY dropping below 100 for the first time in two years.

在2023 - 2026年的周期中，BTC在2024年初趕上了DXY，直到最近，兩者在很大程度上保持同步。明顯的分歧始於2025年4月初，DXY在兩年內首次下降到100以下。

If past patterns are any guide, this could signal the start of a new BTC rally. And if the U.S. moves to strategically weaken the dollar in the long term

如果過去的模式是任何指南，這可能會標誌著新的BTC拉力賽的開始。如果美國長期以戰略性地削弱了美元