由趨勢研究撰寫

自2025年4月24日發布研究報告以來，ETH已從1800美元上升到2400美元左右，一個月內增加了約30％。

Since the research report was issued on April 24, 24, ETH has risen from $1,800 to around $2,400, an increase of about 30% in one month . The prediction before the writing of the research report started at $1,450. As an asset target of hundreds of billions of dollars, it is a rare opportunity for large funds to achieve high returns in the short term. The main reasons for the firm bullish view at that time include: ETH still has stable financial data, and its status as an important infrastructure for encryption has not changed; the huge adjustment range of short-term highs (a drop of more than 60% in 4 months); the scale of short positions in the derivatives market is huge, and the bottom spot volume has climbed to an important support swap area after the increase, and the continuous layout of traditional finance and the gradual inflow of ETFs. At present, our forecast for ETH is that it can break through $5,000 in the long term. In an optimistic situation, if BTC rises to $300,000+ in this cycle, ETH is expected to rise to $10,000 , and will capture opportunities for related targets in the ETH ecosystem in the long term.

自從4月24日發布研究報告以來，ETH已從1,800美元增加到$ 2,400，一個月內增加了約30％。撰寫研究報告之前的預測為1,450美元。作為數億美元的資產目標，對於大型資金來說，這是在短期內獲得高回報的難得的機會。當時，公司看漲觀點的主要原因包括：ETH仍然具有穩定的財務數據，其作為加密的重要基礎設施的地位沒有改變；短期高點的巨大調整範圍（在4個月內下降了60％以上）；衍生品市場中短職位的規模很大，在增加後，最低點量已經攀升至重要的支撐交換區域，以及傳統財務的持續佈局和ETF的逐漸流入。目前，我們對ETH的預測是，從長遠來看，它可能會損失5,000美元。在一個樂觀的情況下，如果BTC在這個週期中上漲至30萬美元以上，ETH預計將上升到10,000美元，從長遠來看，ETH將為ETH生態系統中的相關目標帶來機會。

1. Valuation prediction for ETH

1。 ETH的估值預測

An important background for the new valuation of ETH is the capture of the trend of integration between key digital assets and traditional finance . We note that BTC, as the most important digital asset, has opened the prelude to being included in the strategic reserve assets of various US states after the approval of the spot ETF, and has gradually become the scale expansion and a certain degree of strategic replacement of US dollar assets. It is currently ranked sixth in the global asset market value. The US BTC spot ETF currently manages approximately US$118.6 billion in assets, accounting for approximately 6% of the total market value of Bitcoin. The trend of integration between crypto assets and traditional finance is beyond doubt. In an interview in Dubai in May, CZ said that the price of Bitcoin in this round of market cycle may reach US$500,000 to US$1 million.

ETH新評估的一個重要背景是捕獲關鍵數字資產與傳統財務之間整合的趨勢。我們注意到，作為最重要的數字資產作為最重要的數字資產，在現貨ETF批准後，已經開闢了被納入美國各州戰略儲備資產的前奏，並逐漸成為規模的擴展和一定程度的戰略替代美元資產。目前，它在全球資產市場價值中排名第六。美國BTC現場ETF目前管理的資產約為1,186億美元，約佔比特幣總市值的6％。加密資產與傳統金融之間的整合趨勢毫無疑問。 CZ在5月在迪拜接受采訪時說，這一輪市場週期中比特幣的價格可能達到500,000美元至100萬美元。

ETH still has robust financial data, and its status as the most important infrastructure of crypto finance has not changed . Ethereum DeFi's total TVL is about $60 billion, accounting for more than 53% of the global DeFi market, and the market value of stablecoins is $124 billion, accounting for more than 50% of the total market value of global stablecoins. The total AUM of Ethereum ETF is $7.2 billion, and BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL has invested about $2.7 billion in the Ethereum ecosystem, accounting for 92% of its total assets.

ETH仍然具有強大的財務數據，並且其作為加密財務最重要的基礎設施的地位沒有改變。 Ethereum Defi的總TVL約為600億美元，佔全球DEFI市場的53％以上，而Stablecoins的市場價值為1,240億美元，佔全球Stablecoins總市場價值的50％以上。 Ethereum ETF的總AUM為72億美元，BlackRock的貨幣市場基金Buidl已向以太坊生態系統投資了約27億美元，佔其總資產的92％。

After reaching three peaks at $4,000 in 24, ETH quickly fell to around $1,300, with an ATH of $4,800+. Based on the following potential factors, we predict that the ETH price will reach $5,000 in this cycle :

ETH在24美元的價格達到三個峰值的價格為4,000美元之後，很快下跌至1,300美元左右，ATH為4,800美元以上。根據以下潛在因素，我們預測，在本週期中，ETH價格將達到5,000美元：

After a substantial decline from a high of over $1,600 in early 2022 to a low of $1,000 in December 2022, BTC rebounded rapidly. In April 2024, it broke through the $50,000 mark and rose to a high of $47,000 in May. Afterwards, it encountered strong resistance and fluctuated at a high level for a period of time before finally breaking through the four-year resistance at $50,000 on July 18, 24.

從2022年初的高價下降了1,600美元以上的最低點，到2022年12月的1,000美元的低價之後，BTC迅速反彈。 2024年4月，它損失了50,000美元的大關，並在5月跌至47,000美元。之後，它遇到了強烈的抵抗力，並在一段時間內在高水平上波動，然後最終在24月18日7月18日以50,000美元的價格突破了四年抵抗。

As the most valuable cryptocurrency, BTC has attracted widespread attention from institutional investors. In April 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing of two BTC futures ETFs, setting the stage for the approval of spot ETFs, which are closely watched by the industry. Finally, on August 8, 24, the SEC approved the applications for BTC spot ETFs submitted by several institutions, including BlackRock, setting off a frenzy in the cryptocurrency market.

作為最有價值的加密貨幣，BTC引起了機構投資者的廣泛關注。 2024年4月，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）批准了兩個BTC期貨ETF的上市，為批准現貨ETF奠定了基礎，該階段是該行業密切關注的。最終，在8月8日，24日，SEC批准了包括貝萊德在內的幾個機構提交的BTC現場ETF的申請，在加密貨幣市場中引發了瘋狂的申請。

The approval of BTC spot ETFs marks a significant milestone in the integration of cryptocurrencies with traditional finance. It will allow institutional investors to easily invest in BTC through traditional financial channels, potentially bringing a massive influx of capital into the cryptocurrency market.

BTC斑點ETF的批准標誌著加密貨幣與傳統金融的整合是一個重要的里程碑。這將使機構投資者能夠通過傳統的金融渠道輕鬆投資於BTC，從而有可能將大量資本湧入加密貨幣市場。

Moreover, the approval of BTC spot ETFs is expected to accelerate the development of the cryptocurrency market and related technologies. It will also push for the introduction of relevant regulations to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the cryptocurrency industry.

此外，預計BTC斑點ETF的批准將加速加密貨幣市場和相關技術的發展。它還將推動引入相關法規，以確保加密貨幣行業的健康和可持續發展。

The approval of BTC spot ETFs is a crucial step in opening up the cryptocurrency market to broader participation and integration with the global financial system. It is an exciting development that has far-reaching implications for the future of cryptocurrencies and the

BTC Spot ETF的批准是開放加密貨幣市場以更廣泛的參與和與全球金融體系的整合的關鍵步驟。這是一個令人興奮的發展，對加密貨幣的未來和