琳·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）表示，稳定其金融体系的美元是必要的。

比特币和黄金的位置良好，可以从脱衣化中受益。主权财富基金和各个国家已经在增加其比特币的曝光率

The U.S. dollar (DXY) has been steadily weakening, a fact that is no longer making major headlines. With several disruptions unfolding in the American economy, the greenback’s decline has become part of the backdrop. Since the beginning of 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index has lost 11%, now trading at levels last seen in April 2022.

美元（DXY）一直在稳步削弱，这一事实不再是主要的头条新闻。随着美国经济中的几次破坏，绿背的下降已成为背景的一部分。自2025年初以来，美元指数损失了11％，现在在2022年4月出现的水平上交易。

Markets have largely responded with a shrug. After all, in times of deep restructuring, isn’t some dollar weakness to be expected?

市场在很大程度上耸了耸肩。毕竟，在重组深度重组的时候，难道不是有一些美元的弱点吗？

But the fact that the dollar is sliding at all is noteworthy. And in a May 4 newsletter, independent market analyst Lyn Alden has argued that this weakness may be necessary for the U.S. to stabilize its financial system. According to Alden, a controlled retreat from dollar hegemony could be one of the few paths left to keep the fragile system afloat. And if the U.S. steps back from its role at the center of the monetary universe, the world will need alternatives. Neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin could be well-positioned to take on a more central role.

但是，美元滑行的事实值得注意。在5月4日的新闻通讯中，独立市场分析师林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）认为，这种弱点对于美国稳定其金融体系可能是必要的。根据奥尔登（Alden）的说法，从美元霸权中受控的务虚会可能是使脆弱系统漂浮的少数路径之一。如果美国退出其在货币宇宙中心的角色，世界将需要替代方案。黄金和比特币等中性资产可以很好地扮演更中心的角色。

The U.S. and the dollar are in a ‘long-term transition’

美国和美元处于“长期过渡”

Fractional reserve banking, the system that fiat money relies on, creates money through lending. Each time a bank issues a loan, it expands the supply of broad money, without necessarily creating enough base money to cover the loan principal and its interest. This means that the current financial system relies on continual credit expansion and refinancing to remain solvent.

法定资金依赖的系统分数储备银行通过贷款创造了钱。每次银行签发贷款时，它都会扩大大量货币的供应，而无需创造足够的基本资金来支付贷款本金及其利息。这意味着当前的金融系统依靠不断的信贷扩张和再融资来保持溶剂。

Today, the U.S. has around $102 trillion in public and private dollar-denominated debt, with another $18 trillion owed by borrowers outside the U.S. And that’s not even counting derivatives, which would push the total much higher. Yet only $5.8 trillion in base money actually exists.

如今，美国拥有约1002万亿美元的公共和私人美元计价的债务，由美国以外的借款人又欠了18万亿美元，甚至还没有计算衍生品，这将使总数更高。然而，实际上只有5.8万亿美元的基本货币。

The U.S. plays a special role in this system. It imports more than it exports, while surplus countries funnel their dollar earnings back into American stocks, bonds, real estate, and private equity. For the $18 trillion in dollar liabilities held abroad, non-U.S. entities hold roughly $61 trillion in U.S. dollar assets. But when dollar liquidity tightens — when the music stops — foreign holders often have to sell those assets to service their debts, which, in turn, threatens U.S. financial stability.

美国在该系统中发挥了特殊作用。它的进口超过出口，而盈余国家将其美元收益汇回美国股票，债券，房地产和私募股权。对于在国外举行的18万亿美元的美元负债，非美国实体持有约61万亿美元的美元资产。但是，当美元的流动性收紧时 - 当音乐停止时 - 外国持有人通常必须出售这些资产来偿还其债务，这反过来又威胁到美国的财务稳定。

This happened in March 2020, when parts of the Treasury market froze during the peak panic stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed stepped in, quickly opening emergency swap lines with foreign central banks and printing trillions in base money to re-float the system. That solved the liquidity issue but unleashed inflation, hitting lower-income Americans the hardest.

这发生在2020年3月，当时美国国库市场的部分地区在COVID-19-19大流行的高峰阶段冻结。美联储介入，迅速与外国中央银行打开紧急掉期线，并以基本资金打印数万亿美元以重新融化该系统。这解决了流动性问题，但释放了通货膨胀，使低收入美国人最难击中。

Combined with decades of industrial decline and widening social gaps, this situation eventually created the political mandate for Donald Trump and his protectionist agenda. However, the tariff shock is unlikely to be successful. The current system implies that the U.S. must run structural trade deficits to provide the global economy with enough dollars to keep the greenback’s dominance. The only way of rebalancing trade flows is through a weak dollar and a step back from monetary hegemony.

加上数十年的工业衰落和社会差距的扩大，这种情况最终为唐纳德·特朗普及其贸易保护主义议程创造了政治任务。但是，关税冲击不太可能成功。当前的系统意味着美国必须经营结构性贸易赤字，以为全球经济提供足够的美元以保持绿色的统治地位。重新平衡贸易流量的唯一方法是通过微弱的美元和货币霸权的后退。

As Alden puts it,

正如奥尔登所说的那样

If the U.S. tries to maintain a strong dollar while also reducing its trade deficit, it will encounter significant difficulties. If the U.S. attempts to maintain its trade deficit while strengthening the dollar, it may face issues with inflation and liquidity in the global financial system. Finally, if the U.S. tries to reduce both its trade deficit and strengthen the dollar, it will likely encounter difficulties on multiple fronts, leading to a broader economic downturn.

如果美国试图在减少其贸易赤字的同时维持强劲的美元，它将遇到很大的困难。如果美国试图在加强美元的同时维持其贸易赤字，那么它可能会面临全球金融体系中通货膨胀和流动性的问题。最后，如果美国试图减少其贸易赤字并加强美元，那么它可能会在多个方面遇到困难，从而导致更广泛的经济低迷。

The Bitcoin to DXY relationship

比特币与DXY关系

Bitcoin (BTC) and DXY are inversely correlated. When the dollar strengthens, risk-on assets like BTC lose some of their appeal to investors. When the dollar weakens, BTC becomes more attractive not just as a speculative play, but as an alternative currency. In a system where fiat must effectively lose value over time to function, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and monetary neutrality offer a compelling hedge.

比特币（BTC）和DXY成反比。当美元加强时，像BTC这样的风险资产失去了对投资者的吸引力。当美元削弱时，BTC不仅会成为投机性游戏，而且成为替代货币的吸引力。在菲亚特必须有效地失去价值的系统中，比特币的固定供应和货币中立性提供了令人信服的树篱。

Overlaying BTC and DXY charts reveals that major divergences between the two often align with Bitcoin trend reversals. In April 2018 and March 2022, such divergences signaled bear markets, while November 2020 marked the start of a bullish rally.

覆盖BTC和DXY图表表明，两者之间的主要差异通常与比特币趋势逆转保持一致。 2018年4月和2022年3月，这种分歧标志着熊市，而2020年11月标志着看涨集会的开始。

In the 2023-2026 cycle, BTC caught up with the DXY in early 2024, and the two moved largely in sync until recently. A clear divergence began at the beginning of April 2025, with the DXY dropping below 100 for the first time in two years.

在2023 - 2026年的周期中，BTC在2024年初赶上了DXY，直到最近，两者在很大程度上保持同步。明显的分歧始于2025年4月初，DXY在两年内首次下降到100以下。

If past patterns are any guide, this could signal the start of a new BTC rally. And if the U.S. moves to strategically weaken the dollar in the long term

如果过去的模式是任何指南，这可能会标志着新的BTC拉力赛的开始。如果美国长期以战略性地削弱了美元