投資者能否在全球頭條新聞和變化趨勢的一年中超過波動？

2025年5月9日 - 投資者能否在全球頭條新聞和變化趨勢的一年中超過波動？ Sierra Alpha Research首席投資策略師David Keller與Jim Puplava一起

May 9, 2025—Can investors outpace volatility in a year of global headlines and shifting trends?

2025年5月9日 - 在全球頭條新聞和變化趨勢的一年中，投資者可以超過波動嗎？

This week, the U.K. and the U.S. reached a deal on tariffs, while the Vatican elected a new Pope—the first American Pope in history. In other news, the market seems to be enjoying this combination of events, pushing all indexes into positive territory. Let’s see if the positive momentum continues.

本週，英國和美國達成了關稅，而梵蒂岡選舉了新的教皇，這是歷史上第一位美國教皇。在其他新聞中，市場似乎正在享受這種事件的結合，將所有索引推向積極的領域。讓我們看看積極的勢頭是否在繼續。

Joining me on the program is David Keller, president and chief investment strategist at Sierra Alpha Research.

Sierra Alpha Research的總裁兼首席投資策略師David Keller加入我的計劃。

We’ll begin with a couple of articles that Dave sent me. He’s short-term bullish but medium-term bearish.

我們將從戴夫（Dave）發送給我的幾篇文章開始。他是短期看漲但中期的看跌。

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Jim Puplava:Well, this is certainly turning out to be a momentous week. We just reached a deal with the U.K. on tariffs, and the Vatican has elected a new Pope, the first American Pope in history. The market seems to be liking that, as all indexes are on the upside. Let’s find out if this continues. Joining me on the program is Dave Keller. He's president and chief investment strategist at Sierra Alpha Research. Dave, let’s begin with a couple of articles. You sent me a number of charts, but you’re short-term bullish, medium-term bearish. Explain that.

吉姆·普拉瓦（Jim Puplava）：嗯，這肯定是一個重要的一周。我們剛剛與英國達成了關稅達成協議，梵蒂岡選舉了新的教皇，這是歷史上第一位美國教皇。市場似乎很喜歡，因為所有索引都在上升。讓我們找出這是否繼續。戴夫·凱勒（Dave Keller）加入我的計劃。他是Sierra Alpha Research的總裁兼首席投資策略師。戴夫，讓我們從幾篇文章開始。您給我發送了許多圖表，但是您是短期看漲的中期看跌。解釋一下。

Dave Keller:It’s great to be back with you, Jim. Thanks, as always, for the invitation. You have to consider the market on multiple time frames. If there’s anything I’ve learned so far as we progress through 2025, it’s that you must separate short-term disruptions from medium-term trends and long-term secular movements. Recognizing those multiple time frames that are always interplaying within day-to-day and week-to-week periods is so valuable. It helps you avoid making long-term decisions based on short-term data. In 2025, after a sell-off from a new all-time high in mid-February to a new swing low in early April, and then retracing a good amount of that sell-off back to around 5,700—where we’re at today—that’s a significant amount of volatility, which I don’t think is going to change. High volatility is likely to remain the norm. Recognizing short-term movements that turn into medium-term trends is key. For me, the medium-term time frame is about recognizing what we call the cyclical time frame, looking at a period of months as opposed to minutes, and understanding how those have shifted. When I look at the S&P 500 chart and apply my trend models, the short-term model is undeniably strong off the early April low. There’s no denying the strength we’re seeing, even this week, with additional upside follow-through for stocks—not just in big-cap technology, but in other areas as well. The medium-term time frame, however, has a lot to do with where a major average is relative to the 200-day moving average. Despite the rally off the early April lows, the S&P is still below its 200-day moving average. The last time we tested that was in late March, and we had a failure move before the new low. Until the S&P gets above the 200-day moving average, I think many investors, including myself, would consider this, at best, a neutral picture. A move above 5,750, with follow-through above 5,800, would adjust the contours of this market to a much more bullish outlook on that medium term.

戴夫·凱勒（Dave Keller）：吉姆（Jim）很高興與您一起回來。一如既往地感謝您的邀請。您必須在多個時間範圍內考慮市場。如果我到2025年的進步都學到了什麼，那就是您必須將短期破壞與中期趨勢和長期世俗運動區分開。認識到那些在日常和周期內總是相互作用的多個時間範圍是如此有價值。它可以幫助您避免根據短期數據做出長期決策。在2025年，在4月初從2月中旬的新歷史最高升高到新的鞦韆之後，然後將大量售罄的售罄回到了5700左右（我們今天在這裡），這是很大的波動性，我認為這不會改變。高波動率可能仍然是常態。認識到變成中期趨勢的短期運動是關鍵。對我來說，中期時間範圍是要認識到我們所謂的周期性時間範圍，觀察幾個月的時間，而不是幾分鐘，並了解這些時間的變化。當我查看標準普爾500指數並應用我的趨勢模型時，短期模型無可否認是4月初低點。無可否認，即使是本週，我們也看到了股票的額外上行，不僅是大型股技術，而且在其他領域也是如此。但是，中期時間範圍與相對於200天移動平均線的主要平均值與位置有很大關係。儘管4月初的低點集會，但標準普爾仍低於其200天的移動平均水平。我們上次測試了3月下旬，我們在新低點之前發生了失敗的舉動。直到標準普爾高於200天移動平均水平之前，我認為包括我在內的許多投資者充其量都會考慮這一點。超過5,750的舉動，其後續時間超過5,800，它將在該中期的中期將該市場的輪廓調整為更看好的前景。

Jim Puplava:So, you would want to see a breakthrough above 5,800?

吉姆·普拉瓦（Jim Puplava）：那麼，您是否想在5800以上的突破？

Dave Keller:Yes, because that would complete a rotation back above the 200-day moving average. Many investors are still waiting for the next shoe to drop, expecting the next headline to cause the S&P to retest the April lows. If we get above 5,800, you have to abandon that mindset and recognize and embrace the strength we’ve seen in risk assets off the April lows. You follow the evidence, and if the evidence shows enough buyers coming in to propel us above that long-term barometer, you have to follow that trend higher.

戴夫·凱勒（Dave Keller）：是的，因為這將使輪換返回到200天的移動平均水平上。許多投資者仍在等待下一鞋掉下來，預計下一個標題會導致標準普爾重新測試四月的低點。如果我們超過5,800，您必須放棄這種思維方式，並認識到我們在四月低點的風險資產中所看到的實力。您遵循證據，如果證據表明足夠的買家來推動我們超越長期晴雨表，則必須遵循更高的趨勢。

Jim Puplava:I can

吉姆學生：可以