投资者能否在全球头条新闻和变化趋势的一年中超过波动？

2025年5月9日 - 投资者能否在全球头条新闻和变化趋势的一年中超过波动？ Sierra Alpha Research首席投资策略师David Keller与Jim Puplava一起

May 9, 2025—Can investors outpace volatility in a year of global headlines and shifting trends?

2025年5月9日 - 在全球头条新闻和变化趋势的一年中，投资者可以超过波动吗？

This week, the U.K. and the U.S. reached a deal on tariffs, while the Vatican elected a new Pope—the first American Pope in history. In other news, the market seems to be enjoying this combination of events, pushing all indexes into positive territory. Let’s see if the positive momentum continues.

本周，英国和美国达成了关税，而梵蒂冈选举了新的教皇，这是历史上第一位美国教皇。在其他新闻中，市场似乎正在享受这种事件的结合，将所有索引推向积极的领域。让我们看看积极的势头是否在继续。

Joining me on the program is David Keller, president and chief investment strategist at Sierra Alpha Research.

Sierra Alpha Research的总裁兼首席投资策略师David Keller加入我的计划。

We’ll begin with a couple of articles that Dave sent me. He’s short-term bullish but medium-term bearish.

我们将从戴夫（Dave）发送给我的几篇文章开始。他是短期看涨但中期的看跌。

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

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Jim Puplava:Well, this is certainly turning out to be a momentous week. We just reached a deal with the U.K. on tariffs, and the Vatican has elected a new Pope, the first American Pope in history. The market seems to be liking that, as all indexes are on the upside. Let’s find out if this continues. Joining me on the program is Dave Keller. He's president and chief investment strategist at Sierra Alpha Research. Dave, let’s begin with a couple of articles. You sent me a number of charts, but you’re short-term bullish, medium-term bearish. Explain that.

吉姆·普拉瓦（Jim Puplava）：嗯，这肯定是一个重要的一周。我们刚刚与英国达成了关税达成协议，梵蒂冈选举了新的教皇，这是历史上第一位美国教皇。市场似乎很喜欢，因为所有索引都在上升。让我们找出这是否继续。戴夫·凯勒（Dave Keller）加入我的计划。他是Sierra Alpha Research的总裁兼首席投资策略师。戴夫，让我们从几篇文章开始。您给我发送了许多图表，但是您是短期看涨的中期看跌。解释一下。

Dave Keller:It’s great to be back with you, Jim. Thanks, as always, for the invitation. You have to consider the market on multiple time frames. If there’s anything I’ve learned so far as we progress through 2025, it’s that you must separate short-term disruptions from medium-term trends and long-term secular movements. Recognizing those multiple time frames that are always interplaying within day-to-day and week-to-week periods is so valuable. It helps you avoid making long-term decisions based on short-term data. In 2025, after a sell-off from a new all-time high in mid-February to a new swing low in early April, and then retracing a good amount of that sell-off back to around 5,700—where we’re at today—that’s a significant amount of volatility, which I don’t think is going to change. High volatility is likely to remain the norm. Recognizing short-term movements that turn into medium-term trends is key. For me, the medium-term time frame is about recognizing what we call the cyclical time frame, looking at a period of months as opposed to minutes, and understanding how those have shifted. When I look at the S&P 500 chart and apply my trend models, the short-term model is undeniably strong off the early April low. There’s no denying the strength we’re seeing, even this week, with additional upside follow-through for stocks—not just in big-cap technology, but in other areas as well. The medium-term time frame, however, has a lot to do with where a major average is relative to the 200-day moving average. Despite the rally off the early April lows, the S&P is still below its 200-day moving average. The last time we tested that was in late March, and we had a failure move before the new low. Until the S&P gets above the 200-day moving average, I think many investors, including myself, would consider this, at best, a neutral picture. A move above 5,750, with follow-through above 5,800, would adjust the contours of this market to a much more bullish outlook on that medium term.

戴夫·凯勒（Dave Keller）：吉姆（Jim）很高兴与您一起回来。一如既往地感谢您的邀请。您必须在多个时间范围内考虑市场。如果我到2025年的进步都学到了什么，那就是您必须将短期破坏与中期趋势和长期世俗运动区分开。认识到那些在日常和周期内总是相互作用的多个时间范围是如此有价值。它可以帮助您避免根据短期数据做出长期决策。在2025年，在4月初从2月中旬的新历史最高升高到新的秋千之后，然后将大量售罄的售罄回到了5700左右（我们今天在这里），这是很大的波动性，我认为这不会改变。高波动率可能仍然是常态。认识到变成中期趋势的短期运动是关键。对我来说，中期时间范围是要认识到我们所谓的周期性时间范围，观察几个月的时间，而不是几分钟，并了解这些时间的变化。当我查看标准普尔500指数并应用我的趋势模型时，短期模型无可否认是4月初低点。无可否认，即使是本周，我们也看到了股票的额外上行，不仅是大型股技术，而且在其他领域也是如此。但是，中期时间范围与相对于200天移动平均线的主要平均值与位置有很大关系。尽管4月初的低点集会，但标准普尔仍低于其200天的移动平均水平。我们上次测试了3月下旬，我们在新低点之前发生了失败的举动。直到标准普尔高于200天移动平均水平之前，我认为包括我在内的许多投资者充其量都会考虑这一点。超过5,750的举动，其后续时间超过5,800，它将在该中期的中期将该市场的轮廓调整为更看好的前景。

Jim Puplava:So, you would want to see a breakthrough above 5,800?

吉姆·普拉瓦（Jim Puplava）：那么，您是否想在5800以上的突破？

Dave Keller:Yes, because that would complete a rotation back above the 200-day moving average. Many investors are still waiting for the next shoe to drop, expecting the next headline to cause the S&P to retest the April lows. If we get above 5,800, you have to abandon that mindset and recognize and embrace the strength we’ve seen in risk assets off the April lows. You follow the evidence, and if the evidence shows enough buyers coming in to propel us above that long-term barometer, you have to follow that trend higher.

戴夫·凯勒（Dave Keller）：是的，因为这将使轮换返回到200天的移动平均水平上。许多投资者仍在等待下一鞋掉下来，预计下一个标题会导致标准普尔重新测试四月的低点。如果我们超过5,800，您必须放弃这种思维方式，并认识到我们在四月低点的风险资产中所看到的实力。您遵循证据，如果证据表明足够的买家来推动我们超越长期晴雨表，则必须遵循更高的趋势。

Jim Puplava:I can

吉姆学生：可以