為什麼4：1的金到 - 比特幣投資組合可能會帶來平衡的風險和回報

比特幣最近超越了100,000美元的門檻，它引起了人們的注意，不僅僅是價格標籤。

Bitcoin's recent surge past the $100,000 mark has not only piqued the interest of financial institutions but has also led to some interesting observations from renowned economists.

比特幣最近過去的100,000美元大關不僅激發了金融機構的興趣，而且還引起了著名經濟學家的一些有趣的觀察。

Among them is Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, who noted the closing gap in the risk-adjusted performance of Bitcoin and gold.

其中包括富達的全球宏觀總監朱琳·蒂默（Jurrien Timmer），他指出了比特幣和黃金的風險調整後的閉合差距。

According to Timmer, the 52-week Sharpe ratios for both assets are now converging. This observation becomes especially pertinent considering that gold, which has seen 67 record highs since early 2024 and a roughly 33% return this year, has seen its edge in performance and predictability diminish as Bitcoin recovers.

根據Timmer的說法，兩種資產的52周夏普比率現在正在融合。考慮到，自2024年初以來獲得了67個創紀錄的高分，今年的回報率大約33％的紀錄，這一觀察結果變得尤為相關，隨著比特幣恢復的恢復，其性能和可預測性的優勢降低了。

At current price levels – with gold around $3,213 per ounce and Bitcoin close to $103,600 – Timmer's preferred portfolio balance of 4:1 in favor of gold appears to yield similar volatility and cumulative returns. This heuristic supports the notion that gold and Bitcoin are not necessarily competitive but rather complementary in a diversified store-of-value strategy.

在目前的價格水平上 - 黃金約為每盎司3,213美元，比特幣接近103,600美元 - 蒂默的首選投資組合餘額為4：1，贊成黃金似乎產生了類似的波動性和累積的回報。這種啟發式人士支持這樣的觀念，即黃金和比特幣不一定具有競爭力，而是在多元化的價值策略中互補的觀念。

This observation is interesting in the context of the narrative that younger generations are pivoting away from traditional assets like gold and instead putting their faith in newer technologies and assets, such as Bitcoin.

在敘述的背景下，這種觀察結果很有趣，即年輕一代正在脫離傳統資產，例如黃金，而是對較新的技術和資產（例如比特幣）充滿信心。

However, at least in terms of Sharpe ratios, which measure risk-adjusted return, both assets appear to be performing similarly over the past 52 weeks. This convergence might signal that as gold's Sharpe ratio deteriorates due to decreasing returns and increasing volatility, perhaps due to the rapid pace of the bull market in 2024, and Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio improves as it recovers from spring lows and shows resilience, there is a meeting point.

但是，至少就衡量風險調整後收益的夏普比率而言，這兩個資產在過去52周中的表現似乎相似。這種融合可能表明，隨著黃金的夏普比率由於回報的下降和波動性的增加而惡化，這可能是由於2024年牛市的快速速度，而比特幣的夏普比率在從春季低下恢復並顯示出彈性時的夏普比率有所改善，有一個遇見點。

Specifically, after reaching a low point in April when it fell below $76,000, Bitcoin has bounced back, recovering almost 25% from those lows.

具體來說，在4月達到76,000美元以下的低點之後，比特幣反彈，從這些低點恢復了近25％。

This recovery could be viewed as a return to its role as a speculative complement, especially considering gold's performance is slowing down.

這種恢復可以看作是其作為投機性補充作用的回歸，尤其是考慮到黃金的性能正在放緩。

This observation could also be linked to the narrative that younger generations are pivoting away from traditional assets and putting their faith in newer technologies and assets.

這一觀察結果也可以與年輕一代從傳統資產中旋轉並對新技術和資產充滿信心的敘述有關。

However, it's important to note that Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio is still in negative territory, which could be concerning for some investors. Moreover, external risks, such as regulatory crackdowns or liquidity stress, could reopen the divergence between the two assets.

但是，重要的是要注意，比特幣的Sharpe比率仍處於負面領域，這對於某些投資者來說可能是有關的。此外，外部風險（例如監管鎮壓或流動性壓力）可能會重新開放這兩個資產之間的差異。

Despite this, the data suggests that the "digital gold" narrative might be regaining strength as both assets appear to be performing similarly in terms of risk-adjusted return over the past year.

儘管如此，數據表明，“數字黃金”的敘述可能會恢復實力，因為在過去一年中，這兩個資產似乎在風險調整後的回報方面表現類似。