为什么4：1的金到 - 比特币投资组合可能会带来平衡的风险和回报

比特币最近超越了100,000美元的门槛，它引起了人们的注意，不仅仅是价格标签。

Bitcoin's recent surge past the $100,000 mark has not only piqued the interest of financial institutions but has also led to some interesting observations from renowned economists.

比特币最近过去的100,000美元大关不仅激发了金融机构的兴趣，而且还引起了著名经济学家的一些有趣的观察。

Among them is Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity, who noted the closing gap in the risk-adjusted performance of Bitcoin and gold.

其中包括富达的全球宏观总监朱琳·蒂默（Jurrien Timmer），他指出了比特币和黄金的风险调整后的闭合差距。

According to Timmer, the 52-week Sharpe ratios for both assets are now converging. This observation becomes especially pertinent considering that gold, which has seen 67 record highs since early 2024 and a roughly 33% return this year, has seen its edge in performance and predictability diminish as Bitcoin recovers.

根据Timmer的说法，两种资产的52周夏普比率现在正在融合。考虑到，自2024年初以来获得了67个创纪录的高分，今年的回报率大约33％的纪录，这一观察结果变得尤为相关，随着比特币恢复的恢复，其性能和可预测性的优势降低了。

At current price levels – with gold around $3,213 per ounce and Bitcoin close to $103,600 – Timmer's preferred portfolio balance of 4:1 in favor of gold appears to yield similar volatility and cumulative returns. This heuristic supports the notion that gold and Bitcoin are not necessarily competitive but rather complementary in a diversified store-of-value strategy.

在目前的价格水平上 - 黄金约为每盎司3,213美元，比特币接近103,600美元 - 蒂默的首选投资组合余额为4：1，赞成黄金似乎产生了类似的波动性和累积的回报。这种启发式人士支持这样的观念，即黄金和比特币不一定具有竞争力，而是在多元化的价值策略中互补的观念。

This observation is interesting in the context of the narrative that younger generations are pivoting away from traditional assets like gold and instead putting their faith in newer technologies and assets, such as Bitcoin.

在叙述的背景下，这种观察结果很有趣，即年轻一代正在脱离传统资产，例如黄金，而是对较新的技术和资产（例如比特币）充满信心。

However, at least in terms of Sharpe ratios, which measure risk-adjusted return, both assets appear to be performing similarly over the past 52 weeks. This convergence might signal that as gold's Sharpe ratio deteriorates due to decreasing returns and increasing volatility, perhaps due to the rapid pace of the bull market in 2024, and Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio improves as it recovers from spring lows and shows resilience, there is a meeting point.

但是，至少就衡量风险调整后收益的夏普比率而言，这两个资产在过去52周中的表现似乎相似。这种融合可能表明，随着黄金的夏普比率由于回报的下降和波动性的增加而恶化，这可能是由于2024年牛市的快速速度，而比特币的夏普比率在从春季低下恢复并显示出弹性时的夏普比率有所改善，有一个遇见点。

Specifically, after reaching a low point in April when it fell below $76,000, Bitcoin has bounced back, recovering almost 25% from those lows.

具体来说，在4月达到76,000美元以下的低点之后，比特币反弹，从这些低点恢复了近25％。

This recovery could be viewed as a return to its role as a speculative complement, especially considering gold's performance is slowing down.

这种恢复可以看作是其作为投机性补充作用的回归，尤其是考虑到黄金的性能正在放缓。

This observation could also be linked to the narrative that younger generations are pivoting away from traditional assets and putting their faith in newer technologies and assets.

这一观察结果也可以与年轻一代从传统资产中旋转并对新技术和资产充满信心的叙述有关。

However, it's important to note that Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio is still in negative territory, which could be concerning for some investors. Moreover, external risks, such as regulatory crackdowns or liquidity stress, could reopen the divergence between the two assets.

但是，重要的是要注意，比特币的Sharpe比率仍处于负面领域，这对于某些投资者来说可能是有关的。此外，外部风险（例如监管镇压或流动性压力）可能会重新开放这两个资产之间的差异。

Despite this, the data suggests that the "digital gold" narrative might be regaining strength as both assets appear to be performing similarly in terms of risk-adjusted return over the past year.

尽管如此，数据表明，“数字黄金”的叙述可能会恢复实力，因为在过去一年中，这两个资产似乎在风险调整后的回报方面表现类似。