佛羅里達黑豹與坦帕灣閃電

由肖恩·吉爾（Sean Gentille），Dom Luszczyszyn和Shayna Goldman

Only one series between geographic rivals features two of the last four franchises to win the Stanley Cup, and it’s not the Battle of Ontario.

地理競爭對手之間只有一個系列賽冠軍贏得斯坦利杯的最後四個球隊中的兩個，這不是安大略省的戰役。

For the third time in four seasons, the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning are meeting in the playoffs. Given what we’ve seen over the last few months, it might be the best yet. And that’s saying something.

佛羅里達黑豹隊和坦帕灣閃電隊第三次在季后賽中開會。鑑於我們在過去幾個月中所看到的，這可能是迄今為止最好的。那是在說些什麼。

The odds

賠率

Unsurprisingly, the margins in this series are extremely thin. The Atlantic houses three elite teams and this matchup is exactly why winning the division is so crucial to going deep. Doing so avoids an early coin flip against one of those elite teams. Now, one of the league’s very best will be sent packing way too early. Tough.

毫不奇怪，該系列的邊緣非常薄。大西洋擁有三支精英球隊，這場對決正是贏得該部門對深度至關重要的原因。這樣做避免了對那些精英團隊之一的早期硬幣翻轉。現在，聯盟最好的之一將太早發送包裝。艱難的。

This is a conference-final worthy matchup, a heavyweight tilt between two teams that the model has ranked among the top three all season long. It wouldn’t be a shock to see either side go all the way after surviving this matchup.

這是一場值得的比賽，這是兩支球隊之間的重量級傾斜，該車型在整個賽季中都排名前三。在這場比賽中倖存下來後，看到任何一側一直走來並不令人震驚。

The Lightning hold the slightest of edges here (literally just two goals separate the two by Net Rating), with home ice and an injury to Aaron Ekblad adding to their side of the ledger. A stronger roster, home ice and a key injury to their opponent — and Tampa Bay’s chances are still just 53 percent. That’s how brutal this matchup is.

閃電在這裡絲毫邊緣（實際上只有兩個進球，將兩個進球通過淨評分分開），家庭冰和亞倫·埃克布拉德（Aaron Ekblad）受傷增加了分類帳的一邊。陣容更強大，家庭冰和對手的關鍵傷害 - 坦帕灣的機會仍然只有53％。這就是這場比賽的殘酷程度。

The numbers

數字

After a lopsided Battle of Florida in Round 1 last year, this series is as close as it gets. Just two goals separate these two teams in Net Rating, the smallest margin of any series. Even the splits between offense and defense are incredibly close.

去年在第一輪中進行了佛羅里達州的一場失誤之後，該系列賽的距離盡可能接近。只有兩個進球將這兩個球隊的淨評分分開，這是任何系列賽的最小差。即使是進攻和防守之間的分裂也非常接近。

At five-on-five, the Panthers created slightly more offense this season, but the Lightning had more to show for it with the fourth-best GF/60 of 2.79. Tampa Bay’s finishing powered the team 12 goals above expected. Based on their shot quality, the Panthers failed to convert on about 29 goals; only the Predators fared worse.

黑豹隊在五對五的比賽中創造了更多的進攻，但閃電以2.79的第四好的GF/60可以顯示出更多的進攻。坦帕灣（Tampa Bay）的完成為球隊的12個進球推動了超過預期的進球。根據他們的投籃質量，黑豹隊未能轉換約29個進球。只有掠食者的情況更糟。

The Lightning’s ability to score off the rush fueled their offense this season, which makes for an interesting stylistic matchup. The Panthers lean heavily on their forecheck and don’t allow their opponents to create much in transition. The Lightning don’t give up many chances back off the rush, either.

閃電的得分能力使他們的進攻推動了本賽季的進攻，這是一場有趣的風格對決。黑豹大力傾向於他們的前進，不允許他們的對手在過渡中創造很多東西。閃電也不會放棄很多機會，也沒有匆忙。

Both teams have their own defensive strengths, but the Panthers have the edge in shot and expected goal suppression. The Lightning’s goaltending made up for that in the regular season — these two teams conceded a matching rate of 2.09 GA/60.

兩支球隊都有自己的防守優勢，但是黑豹隊在射門和預期的進球中都具有優勢。閃電的守門員在常規賽中彌補了這一目標 - 這兩支球隊的匹配率為2.09 GA/60。

Similar trends trickle into the special teams battle. The Panthers allowed fewer chances in short-handed situations, but Tampa Bay’s goaltending gave up a slightly lower rate of goals against. Both teams have a disruptive penalty kill that can generate some offense, too.

類似的趨勢在特殊團隊的戰鬥中滴入。黑豹隊在短手情況下的機會更少，但坦帕灣的守門員放棄了針對的目標率略低。兩支球隊的罰款都可能殺死，也可能造成一些進攻。

The in-state rivals also had matching expected goal rates on the power play of 9.56 xGF/60. The Lightning, again, just finished their chances at a higher clip.

州內競爭對手在9.56 XGF/60的功率比賽中也具有匹配的預期進球率。再次，閃電剛剛以更高的剪輯完成了機會。

The Big Question

大問題

Is Matthew Tkachuk healthy enough for more playoff heroics?

馬修·特卡庫克（Matthew Tkachuk）健康是否足夠健康？

Matthew Tkachuk is an elite player in the regular season. But the playoffs are a different animal, and he rises to the occasion. He’s the type of player everyone wants on their side and no one should want to match up against. He drives play, is one of the most dangerous passers in the league, and brings a rat king energy that infuriates opponents.

Matthew Tkachuk是常規賽的精英球員。但是季后賽是另一種動物，他升到了這一場合。他是每個人都想要的球員類型，沒有人應該與之匹配。他駕駛比賽，是聯盟中最危險的傳球手之一，並帶來了激怒對手的鼠王能量。

Tkachuk was a game-breaker for the Panthers in a surprising run in 2023, and his absence was cruelly crushing in the Final. He was a difference-maker last spring on his path to the Stanley Cup. His combination of skill and disruptive energy gave Team USA a spark in the 4 Nations, too.

Tkachuk在2023年的一次令人驚訝的比賽中對黑豹隊來說是一名破壞比賽的人，他的缺席在決賽中被殘酷地粉碎。去年春天，他在史丹利杯（Stanley Cup）的道路上是一名差異製造者。他的技能和破壞性能源的結合也使美國隊在四個國家也引起了火花。

The injury sustained at the tournament ended Tkachuk’s regular season and had a ripple effect on the Panthers’ play down the stretch. The team’s scoring rate went from 2.55 GF/60 at five-on-five down to 1.80 post-4 Nations. The power play’s efficiency also dropped from 9.32 GF/60 to 8.15, and Tkachuk’s absence more than likely contributed to that.

比賽在比賽結束的常規賽結束，對黑豹隊的比賽產生了連鎖反應。球隊的得分率從2.55 gf/60（五對五對五）下降到1.80後4個國家。 Power Play的效率也從9.32 GF/60下降到8.15，而Tkachuk的缺席很可能為此做出了貢獻。

But can he pick up where he left off in February?

但是他可以在二月份上離開的地方嗎？

There is a difference between being healthy enough to return in the regular season and to play in the postseason. Being healthy enough to be effective is a whole other level.

足夠健康以在常規賽回來和在季后賽比賽之間是有區別的。足夠健康以有效是另一個層次。

Just think of Mark Stone’s return last year in the playoffs and how restricted his movement looked. The same was true with Nikita Kucherov after missing the entire regular season in 2021; while he put up points in the Lightning’s championship run, many came when he was stationary on the power play. Even look at Tom Wilson, who took months to get his game back up to peak levels

只是想想馬克·斯通（Mark Stone）去年在季后賽中的回歸，以及他的運動的限制。尼基塔·庫切羅夫（Nikita Kucherov）在2021年整個常規賽后也是如此。當他在閃電的冠軍賽中提出積分時，許多人是固定在強力比賽上的時候。甚至看湯姆·威爾遜