佛罗里达黑豹与坦帕湾闪电

由肖恩·吉尔（Sean Gentille），Dom Luszczyszyn和Shayna Goldman

Only one series between geographic rivals features two of the last four franchises to win the Stanley Cup, and it’s not the Battle of Ontario.

地理竞争对手之间只有一个系列赛冠军赢得斯坦利杯的最后四个球队中的两个，这不是安大略省的战役。

For the third time in four seasons, the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning are meeting in the playoffs. Given what we’ve seen over the last few months, it might be the best yet. And that’s saying something.

佛罗里达黑豹队和坦帕湾闪电队第三次在季后赛中开会。鉴于我们在过去几个月中所看到的，这可能是迄今为止最好的。那是在说些什么。

The odds

赔率

Unsurprisingly, the margins in this series are extremely thin. The Atlantic houses three elite teams and this matchup is exactly why winning the division is so crucial to going deep. Doing so avoids an early coin flip against one of those elite teams. Now, one of the league’s very best will be sent packing way too early. Tough.

毫不奇怪，该系列的边缘非常薄。大西洋拥有三支精英球队，这场对决正是赢得该部门对深度至关重要的原因。这样做避免了对那些精英团队之一的早期硬币翻转。现在，联盟最好的之一将太早发送包装。艰难的。

This is a conference-final worthy matchup, a heavyweight tilt between two teams that the model has ranked among the top three all season long. It wouldn’t be a shock to see either side go all the way after surviving this matchup.

这是一场值得的比赛，这是两支球队之间的重量级倾斜，该车型在整个赛季中都排名前三。在这场比赛中幸存下来后，看到任何一侧一直走来并不令人震惊。

The Lightning hold the slightest of edges here (literally just two goals separate the two by Net Rating), with home ice and an injury to Aaron Ekblad adding to their side of the ledger. A stronger roster, home ice and a key injury to their opponent — and Tampa Bay’s chances are still just 53 percent. That’s how brutal this matchup is.

闪电在这里丝毫边缘（实际上只有两个进球，将两个进球通过净评分分开），家庭冰和亚伦·埃克布拉德（Aaron Ekblad）受伤增加了分类帐的一边。阵容更强大，家庭冰和对手的关键伤害 - 坦帕湾的机会仍然只有53％。这就是这场比赛的残酷程度。

The numbers

数字

After a lopsided Battle of Florida in Round 1 last year, this series is as close as it gets. Just two goals separate these two teams in Net Rating, the smallest margin of any series. Even the splits between offense and defense are incredibly close.

去年在第一轮中进行了佛罗里达州的一场失误之后，该系列赛的距离尽可能接近。只有两个进球将这两个球队的净评分分开，这是任何系列赛的最小差。即使是进攻和防守之间的分裂也非常接近。

At five-on-five, the Panthers created slightly more offense this season, but the Lightning had more to show for it with the fourth-best GF/60 of 2.79. Tampa Bay’s finishing powered the team 12 goals above expected. Based on their shot quality, the Panthers failed to convert on about 29 goals; only the Predators fared worse.

黑豹队在五对五的比赛中创造了更多的进攻，但闪电以2.79的第四好的GF/60可以显示出更多的进攻。坦帕湾（Tampa Bay）的完成为球队的12个进球推动了超过预期的进球。根据他们的投篮质量，黑豹队未能转换约29个进球。只有掠食者的情况更糟。

The Lightning’s ability to score off the rush fueled their offense this season, which makes for an interesting stylistic matchup. The Panthers lean heavily on their forecheck and don’t allow their opponents to create much in transition. The Lightning don’t give up many chances back off the rush, either.

闪电的得分能力使他们的进攻推动了本赛季的进攻，这是一场有趣的风格对决。黑豹大力倾向于他们的前进，不允许他们的对手在过渡中创造很多东西。闪电也不会放弃很多机会，也没有匆忙。

Both teams have their own defensive strengths, but the Panthers have the edge in shot and expected goal suppression. The Lightning’s goaltending made up for that in the regular season — these two teams conceded a matching rate of 2.09 GA/60.

两支球队都有自己的防守优势，但是黑豹队在射门和预期的进球中都具有优势。闪电的守门员在常规赛中弥补了这一目标 - 这两支球队的匹配率为2.09 GA/60。

Similar trends trickle into the special teams battle. The Panthers allowed fewer chances in short-handed situations, but Tampa Bay’s goaltending gave up a slightly lower rate of goals against. Both teams have a disruptive penalty kill that can generate some offense, too.

类似的趋势在特殊团队的战斗中滴入。黑豹队在短手情况下的机会更少，但坦帕湾的守门员放弃了针对的目标率略低。两支球队的罚款都可能杀死，也可能造成一些进攻。

The in-state rivals also had matching expected goal rates on the power play of 9.56 xGF/60. The Lightning, again, just finished their chances at a higher clip.

州内竞争对手在9.56 XGF/60的功率比赛中也具有匹配的预期进球率。再次，闪电刚刚以更高的剪辑完成了机会。

The Big Question

大问题

Is Matthew Tkachuk healthy enough for more playoff heroics?

马修·特卡库克（Matthew Tkachuk）健康是否足够健康？

Matthew Tkachuk is an elite player in the regular season. But the playoffs are a different animal, and he rises to the occasion. He’s the type of player everyone wants on their side and no one should want to match up against. He drives play, is one of the most dangerous passers in the league, and brings a rat king energy that infuriates opponents.

Matthew Tkachuk是常规赛的精英球员。但是季后赛是另一种动物，他升到了这一场合。他是每个人都想要的球员类型，没有人应该与之匹配。他驾驶比赛，是联盟中最危险的传球手之一，并带来了激怒对手的鼠王能量。

Tkachuk was a game-breaker for the Panthers in a surprising run in 2023, and his absence was cruelly crushing in the Final. He was a difference-maker last spring on his path to the Stanley Cup. His combination of skill and disruptive energy gave Team USA a spark in the 4 Nations, too.

Tkachuk在2023年的一次令人惊讶的比赛中对黑豹队来说是一名破坏比赛的人，他的缺席在决赛中被残酷地粉碎。去年春天，他在史丹利杯（Stanley Cup）的道路上是一名差异制造者。他的技能和破坏性能源的结合也使美国队在四个国家也引起了火花。

The injury sustained at the tournament ended Tkachuk’s regular season and had a ripple effect on the Panthers’ play down the stretch. The team’s scoring rate went from 2.55 GF/60 at five-on-five down to 1.80 post-4 Nations. The power play’s efficiency also dropped from 9.32 GF/60 to 8.15, and Tkachuk’s absence more than likely contributed to that.

比赛在比赛结束的常规赛结束，对黑豹队的比赛产生了连锁反应。球队的得分率从2.55 gf/60（五对五对五）下降到1.80后4个国家。 Power Play的效率也从9.32 GF/60下降到8.15，而Tkachuk的缺席很可能为此做出了贡献。

But can he pick up where he left off in February?

但是他可以在二月份上离开的地方吗？

There is a difference between being healthy enough to return in the regular season and to play in the postseason. Being healthy enough to be effective is a whole other level.

足够健康以在常规赛回来和在季后赛比赛之间是有区别的。足够健康以有效是另一个层次。

Just think of Mark Stone’s return last year in the playoffs and how restricted his movement looked. The same was true with Nikita Kucherov after missing the entire regular season in 2021; while he put up points in the Lightning’s championship run, many came when he was stationary on the power play. Even look at Tom Wilson, who took months to get his game back up to peak levels

只是想想马克·斯通（Mark Stone）去年在季后赛中的回归，以及他的运动的限制。尼基塔·库切罗夫（Nikita Kucherov）在2021年整个常规赛后也是如此。当他在闪电的冠军赛中提出积分时，许多人是固定在强力比赛上的时候。甚至看汤姆·威尔逊