Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman

Only one series between geographic rivals features two of the last four franchises to win the Stanley Cup, and it’s not the Battle of Ontario.

For the third time in four seasons, the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning are meeting in the playoffs. Given what we’ve seen over the last few months, it might be the best yet. And that’s saying something.

The odds

Unsurprisingly, the margins in this series are extremely thin. The Atlantic houses three elite teams and this matchup is exactly why winning the division is so crucial to going deep. Doing so avoids an early coin flip against one of those elite teams. Now, one of the league’s very best will be sent packing way too early. Tough.

This is a conference-final worthy matchup, a heavyweight tilt between two teams that the model has ranked among the top three all season long. It wouldn’t be a shock to see either side go all the way after surviving this matchup.

The Lightning hold the slightest of edges here (literally just two goals separate the two by Net Rating), with home ice and an injury to Aaron Ekblad adding to their side of the ledger. A stronger roster, home ice and a key injury to their opponent — and Tampa Bay’s chances are still just 53 percent. That’s how brutal this matchup is.

The numbers

After a lopsided Battle of Florida in Round 1 last year, this series is as close as it gets. Just two goals separate these two teams in Net Rating, the smallest margin of any series. Even the splits between offense and defense are incredibly close.

At five-on-five, the Panthers created slightly more offense this season, but the Lightning had more to show for it with the fourth-best GF/60 of 2.79. Tampa Bay’s finishing powered the team 12 goals above expected. Based on their shot quality, the Panthers failed to convert on about 29 goals; only the Predators fared worse.

The Lightning’s ability to score off the rush fueled their offense this season, which makes for an interesting stylistic matchup. The Panthers lean heavily on their forecheck and don’t allow their opponents to create much in transition. The Lightning don’t give up many chances back off the rush, either.

Both teams have their own defensive strengths, but the Panthers have the edge in shot and expected goal suppression. The Lightning’s goaltending made up for that in the regular season — these two teams conceded a matching rate of 2.09 GA/60.

Similar trends trickle into the special teams battle. The Panthers allowed fewer chances in short-handed situations, but Tampa Bay’s goaltending gave up a slightly lower rate of goals against. Both teams have a disruptive penalty kill that can generate some offense, too.

The in-state rivals also had matching expected goal rates on the power play of 9.56 xGF/60. The Lightning, again, just finished their chances at a higher clip.

The Big Question

Is Matthew Tkachuk healthy enough for more playoff heroics?

Matthew Tkachuk is an elite player in the regular season. But the playoffs are a different animal, and he rises to the occasion. He’s the type of player everyone wants on their side and no one should want to match up against. He drives play, is one of the most dangerous passers in the league, and brings a rat king energy that infuriates opponents.

Tkachuk was a game-breaker for the Panthers in a surprising run in 2023, and his absence was cruelly crushing in the Final. He was a difference-maker last spring on his path to the Stanley Cup. His combination of skill and disruptive energy gave Team USA a spark in the 4 Nations, too.

The injury sustained at the tournament ended Tkachuk’s regular season and had a ripple effect on the Panthers’ play down the stretch. The team’s scoring rate went from 2.55 GF/60 at five-on-five down to 1.80 post-4 Nations. The power play’s efficiency also dropped from 9.32 GF/60 to 8.15, and Tkachuk’s absence more than likely contributed to that.

But can he pick up where he left off in February?

There is a difference between being healthy enough to return in the regular season and to play in the postseason. Being healthy enough to be effective is a whole other level.

Just think of Mark Stone’s return last year in the playoffs and how restricted his movement looked. The same was true with Nikita Kucherov after missing the entire regular season in 2021; while he put up points in the Lightning’s championship run, many came when he was stationary on the power play. Even look at Tom Wilson, who took months to get his game back up to peak levels