以太坊庫務戰略公司的發展方式可能與ETH交易所交易資金（ETF）相同

領先的加密貨幣市場分析師，加密投資平台機制資本的合作夥伴安德魯·康（Andrew Kang）警告說，以太坊國庫戰略公司的發展方式可能與ETH交易所交易貿易資金（ETFS）相同，這是一波興奮的浪潮。

Andrew Kang, a cryptocurrency market analyst and partner at crypto investment platform Mechanism Capital, has warned that Ethereum Treasury Strategy firms may go the same way as the ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – a wave of excitement followed by underwhelming success.

加密貨幣市場分析師，加密投資平台機制資本的合作夥伴安德魯·康（Andrew Kang）警告說，以太坊國庫戰略公司的行駛方式可能與ETH交易所交易貿易資金（ETFS）相同，這是一波興奮的浪潮，隨後取得了成功。

In a recent post on X, he likened the anticipated fate of ETH treasury companies to that of the much-hyped spot ETH ETFs, which received approval from US regulators last year. Despite initial market optimism, early ETF trading volumes have been modest at best, giving way to harsh market reality.

在最近關於X的文章中，他將ETH財政部公司的預期命運比作雜種ETH ETF的命運，該公司去年獲得了美國監管機構的批准。儘管最初的市場樂觀，但早期的ETF交易量充其量仍然是適度的，讓位於苛刻的市場現實。

A Parallel to the Underwhelming Spot ETH ETF Launch

與令人難以置信的位置ETH ETF發射的相似之處

This has led many to reassess their expectations for institutional demand. As Kang wrote, “demand expectations [are] much higher than reality.” In other words, companies adopting an ETH treasury strategy may experience similar disillusionment that followed the introduction of spot ETH ETFs.

這導致許多人重新評估他們對機構需求的期望。正如康（Kang）所寫的那樣，“需求期望比現實高得多。”換句話說，採用ETH國庫策略的公司可能會經歷類似的幻想，與引入現場ETF的引入。

In addition to extreme hype and underperformance, he told his readers to “expect most to be trading at significant NAV discounts by next year.” With this, he was referring to the net asset value (NAV), which represents the underlying value of assets held by a fund or company.

除了極端的炒作和表現不佳外，他還告訴讀者“預計大多數人會在明年之前以大量的NAV折扣進行交易。”因此，他指的是淨資產價值（NAV），該資產價值代表了基金或公司持有的資產的基本價值。

What happened to ETH ETFs?

ETH ETF發生了什麼？

Indeed, Kang’s arguments are not without merit. Much like was the case with ETFs, if the demand doesn’t materialize in line with expectations, these vehicles may trade below the value of the ETH they hold. They would end up with a compelling pitch but disappointing adoption.

確實，康的論點並非沒有優點。就像ETF一樣，如果需求不符合預期，這些車輛可能會以低於其持有的ETH價值交易。他們最終會以引人注目的推銷，但令人失望的採用。

In a related earlier post, Kang argued that many public ETH vehicles would struggle to deliver returns comparable to simply holding ETH. He also pointed out they could be exposed to structural inefficiencies and low liquidity, stating that an ETH ETF would not provide much upside “unless Ethereum develops a compelling pathway to improve its economics.”

康（Kang）在相關的較早文章中辯稱，許多公共賽車將難以提供與簡單持有ETH相當的回報。他還指出，他們可能會暴露於結構性低效率和低流動性，並指出，ETH ETF不會提供太多的上升空間。

Meanwhile, the broader market may now appraise these treasury firms with a more critical eye. With ETH ETFs still dragging their feet in Kang’s view, the initial euphoria seems to have given way to harsh market realities, and a disconnect has appeared between expected and actual flows.

同時，更廣泛的市場現在可以更加批判的眼光評估這些國庫公司。隨著ETH ETF仍在Kang的觀點中拖延腳步，最初的欣快感似乎已經讓位於苛刻的市場現實，並且在預期和實際流量之間出現了脫節。

The Counterpoint: A Recent Surge in ETF Inflows

對立面：最近的ETF流入激增

That said, the final chapter on ETH ETFs may not be written yet. After a period of underperformance, Ethereum ETFs have recently witnessed an increase in inflows, with $281.3 million in the first week of June.

也就是說，有關ETH ETF的最後一章可能還沒有寫。經過一段時間的表現不佳，以太坊ETF最近目睹了流入量的增加，6月的第一周為2.813億美元。

This indicates that institutional interest may be strengthening, a development that could provide a more positive outlook for both the ETFs and the price of ETH itself.

這表明機構利益可能正在加強，這一發展可以為ETF和ETH本身的價格提供更積極的前景。

All things considered, if Kang’s prediction proves correct, 2026 could be the year Ethereum-native investment products face their biggest test yet – not just from regulators, but from the market itself, which is rarely forgiving.

考慮到康的預測正確，2026年，以太坊本地投資產品可能面臨著他們迄今為止最大的測試 - 不僅來自監管機構，而且來自市場本身，這是所有考慮的一年，這很少被原諒。

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