以太坊库务战略公司的发展方式可能与ETH交易所交易资金（ETF）相同

领先的加密货币市场分析师，加密投资平台机制资本的合作伙伴安德鲁·康（Andrew Kang）警告说，以太坊国库战略公司的发展方式可能与ETH交易所交易贸易资金（ETFS）相同，这是一波兴奋的浪潮。

Andrew Kang, a cryptocurrency market analyst and partner at crypto investment platform Mechanism Capital, has warned that Ethereum Treasury Strategy firms may go the same way as the ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – a wave of excitement followed by underwhelming success.

加密货币市场分析师，加密投资平台机制资本的合作伙伴安德鲁·康（Andrew Kang）警告说，以太坊国库战略公司的行驶方式可能与ETH交易所交易贸易资金（ETFS）相同，这是一波兴奋的浪潮，随后取得了成功。

In a recent post on X, he likened the anticipated fate of ETH treasury companies to that of the much-hyped spot ETH ETFs, which received approval from US regulators last year. Despite initial market optimism, early ETF trading volumes have been modest at best, giving way to harsh market reality.

在最近关于X的文章中，他将ETH财政部公司的预期命运比作杂种ETH ETF的命运，该公司去年获得了美国监管机构的批准。尽管最初的市场乐观，但早期的ETF交易量充其量仍然是适度的，让位于苛刻的市场现实。

A Parallel to the Underwhelming Spot ETH ETF Launch

与令人难以置信的位置ETH ETF发射的相似之处

This has led many to reassess their expectations for institutional demand. As Kang wrote, “demand expectations [are] much higher than reality.” In other words, companies adopting an ETH treasury strategy may experience similar disillusionment that followed the introduction of spot ETH ETFs.

这导致许多人重新评估他们对机构需求的期望。正如康（Kang）所写的那样，“需求期望比现实高得多。”换句话说，采用ETH国库策略的公司可能会经历类似的幻想，与引入现场ETF的引入。

In addition to extreme hype and underperformance, he told his readers to “expect most to be trading at significant NAV discounts by next year.” With this, he was referring to the net asset value (NAV), which represents the underlying value of assets held by a fund or company.

除了极端的炒作和表现不佳外，他还告诉读者“预计大多数人会在明年之前以大量的NAV折扣进行交易。”因此，他指的是净资产价值（NAV），该资产价值代表了基金或公司持有的资产的基本价值。

What happened to ETH ETFs?

ETH ETF发生了什么？

Indeed, Kang’s arguments are not without merit. Much like was the case with ETFs, if the demand doesn’t materialize in line with expectations, these vehicles may trade below the value of the ETH they hold. They would end up with a compelling pitch but disappointing adoption.

确实，康的论点并非没有优点。就像ETF一样，如果需求不符合预期，这些车辆可能会以低于其持有的ETH价值交易。他们最终会以引人注目的推销，但令人失望的采用。

In a related earlier post, Kang argued that many public ETH vehicles would struggle to deliver returns comparable to simply holding ETH. He also pointed out they could be exposed to structural inefficiencies and low liquidity, stating that an ETH ETF would not provide much upside “unless Ethereum develops a compelling pathway to improve its economics.”

康（Kang）在相关的较早文章中辩称，许多公共赛车将难以提供与简单持有ETH相当的回报。他还指出，他们可能会暴露于结构性低效率和低流动性，并指出，ETH ETF不会提供太多的上升空间。

Meanwhile, the broader market may now appraise these treasury firms with a more critical eye. With ETH ETFs still dragging their feet in Kang’s view, the initial euphoria seems to have given way to harsh market realities, and a disconnect has appeared between expected and actual flows.

同时，更广泛的市场现在可以更加批判的眼光评估这些国库公司。随着ETH ETF仍在Kang的观点中拖延脚步，最初的欣快感似乎已经让位于苛刻的市场现实，并且在预期和实际流量之间出现了脱节。

The Counterpoint: A Recent Surge in ETF Inflows

对立面：最近的ETF流入激增

That said, the final chapter on ETH ETFs may not be written yet. After a period of underperformance, Ethereum ETFs have recently witnessed an increase in inflows, with $281.3 million in the first week of June.

也就是说，有关ETH ETF的最后一章可能还没有写。经过一段时间的表现不佳，以太坊ETF最近目睹了流入量的增加，6月的第一周为2.813亿美元。

This indicates that institutional interest may be strengthening, a development that could provide a more positive outlook for both the ETFs and the price of ETH itself.

这表明机构利益可能正在加强，这一发展可以为ETF和ETH本身的价格提供更积极的前景。

All things considered, if Kang’s prediction proves correct, 2026 could be the year Ethereum-native investment products face their biggest test yet – not just from regulators, but from the market itself, which is rarely forgiving.

考虑到康的预测正确，2026年，以太坊本地投资产品可能面临着他们迄今为止最大的测试 - 不仅来自监管机构，而且来自市场本身，这是所有考虑的一年，这很少被原谅。

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