Bitwise Asset Management發布了一項32頁的研究，重點介紹了XRP的投資案例

位資產管理最新的32頁研究（XRP的投資案例）將資本分配定價式框架應用於四面楚歌的付款代幣，並得出結論，在其最樂觀的假設下，它可以在2030年以29.32美元的價格進行交易。到2030年，它的數字是對“ Max Case”的付費。與以前的周期相比，易波動性較低。

Bitwise Asset Management has set a 2030 price target of $29.32 for XRP in a new 32-page study, applying a capital-asset-pricing-style framework to the embattled payments token.

Bitwise Asset Management在一項新的32頁研究中，將XRP的2030年目標目標定為29.32美元，並將資本資本定價式框架應用於四面楚歌的付款代幣。

The new report, titled The Investment Case for XRP, arrives as the token faces an uncertain legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a bleak technical outlook according to Bitwise's own previous analysis.

根據Bitwise自己以前的分析，標題為XRP投資案件的新報告將於與美國證券交易委員會（美國證券交易委員會）面臨不確定的法律鬥爭，並且技術前景荒涼。

Its analysis begins by noting how, in previous bull market cycles, coins such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) typically exhibited greater volatility and realised higher returns.

它的分析始於指出，在先前的牛市週期中，比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）等硬幣通常表現出更大的波動性並實現了更高的回報。

However, Bitwise anticipates that in the next bull cycle, which it expects to unfold in 2024, coins will enter a new phase of lower volatility and more sustainable returns. This, it adds, is due to the maturation of the digital asset class and increased institutional participation.

但是，Bitwise預計在下一個公牛週期中，它預計將在2024年展開，硬幣將進入一個新的波動性和更可持續回報的新階段。補充說，這是由於數字資產類別的成熟和機構參與的增加所致。

The report also notes that, according to Statista, the global market for tokenised assets will reach $10.9 trillion by 2030. This broad category encompasses various forms of digital securities, including equity, fixed income, and real estate tokens.

該報告還指出，根據Statista的數據，到2030年，全球令牌資產市場將達到10.9萬億美元。這一廣泛類別涵蓋了各種形式的數字證券，包括股權，固定收入和房地產令牌。

Capitalising on this backdrop, Bitwise’s report models three distinct price scenarios for XRP over the next seven years, starting from its current price of around $2.10.

在此背景下，Bitwise的報告在未來七年內為XRP的三個不同的價格情景建模，從目前的價格約為2.10美元。

Its customised CAPM equation is RXRP = e^(–κ·σ) (α + β·Rm), discounting expected returns for volatility before layering the specific alpha and its historical beta of roughly 1.92 to the broader crypto market.

其自定義的CAPM方程為RXRP = E^（ - κ·σ）（α +β·RM），在將特定的Alpha及其歷史β的預期回報率折現為浪費及其歷史beta，大約為1.92的較廣泛的加密貨幣市場。

Each of the three regimes has varying assumptions for alpha and volatility, which are then used to generate the 2023-2030 revenue and capitalisation forecasts.

這三個制度中的每一個都有不同的α和波動性假設，然後將其用於產生2023-2030的收入和資本化預測。

In the Bear Scenario, an alpha of –50 percent and a 147 percent volatility assumption drive the price to $0.13. By contrast, the baseline Bull Scenario, with zero alpha and 89 percent volatility, yields $12.68.

在熊情況下，α為–50％和147％的波動性假設將價格提高到0.13美元。相比之下，基線牛場的情況為零α和89％的波動率，產生了12.68美元。

However, the Max Case assigns a one-percent alpha and trims volatility to 75 percent, tying in more closely with Bitwise’s broader market outlooks. This produces an annualised return of 46 percent and the headline 2030 price target of $29.32. As the report puts it, “RXRP = 0.47 ∙ (1% + 1.92 ∙ 60%), … placing [it] at roughly $29.30 by 2030.”

但是，最大案例將一倍的alpha和修剪率分配到75％，與Bitwise的更廣泛的市場前景更緊密地聯繫在一起。這將產生年度回報率為46％，頭條2030目標目標為29.32美元。正如報告所說，“ RXRP = 0.47∙（1％ + 1.92∙60％），……將[IT]放在2030年的$ 29.30中。”

Such a price multiple would capitalize a 1–2 percent slice of the broader use cases that Bitwise anticipates going to crypto broadly. Those rates place Bitcoin at $21 trillion and puts the total market cap at $160 trillion.

這樣的價格倍數將使位於Bitwise預計將大量加密的更廣泛用例中的1-2％的份額資本。這些利率將比特幣定為21萬億美元，並將總市值定為1600萬億美元。

The report adds that the token’s unique mechanics could amplify any demand shock. The fixed 100 billion supply is already 57 billion in circulation, while about 37.7 billion sits in Ripple-controlled escrow that drips onto the market but is often re-escrowed, pushing full float-out to roughly 2033 on current trends.

該報告補充說，令牌的獨特機制可以擴大任何需求衝擊。固定的1000億供應已經在流通量上為570億，而大約377億次的旋轉託管託管託管滴落到市場上，但經常被重新提高，在當前趨勢上大約將全面浮動到2033年。

Moreover, each on-ledger transaction destroys 0.00001 XRP; some 13.46 million coins have been burned to date. “A 100× increase in transaction volume … would mean 0.75 percent is removed from circulation each year,” the authors note, suggesting a structural tail-wind should usage accelerate.

此外，每項領導交易都會破壞0.00001 XRP；迄今為止，大約有1346萬枚硬幣被燃燒。作者指出：“交易量增加100倍，這意味著每年從循環中刪除0.75％的量。”

Whether that acceleration materialises hinges on the ledger’s technical and regulatory position. The XRP Ledger settles transactions in three to five seconds at roughly 1,500 tps and includes compliance-oriented features such as native decentralised identity, a central-limit-orderbook DEX and forthcoming side-chains aimed at asset tokenisation. Bitwise also reminds readers that Ripple’s treasury—worth an estimated $80 billion—gives the ecosystem a uniquely large development war-chest.

加速度是否實現了賬戶技術和監管位置的取決。 XRP分類帳以大約1,500 TPS在三到五秒鐘內定居，其中包括面向合規性的特徵，例如天然分散的身份，中央級訂購的書籍DEX和即將出版的側鏈，旨在資產標記。 Bitwise還提醒讀者，Ripple的財政部（估計為800億美元）使生態系統成為一個獨特的大型開發戰爭冠軍。

Macro-regulatory tone is likewise pivotal. The study links a 400 percent post-election rally in late 2024 to expectations that a crypto-friendly Washington will end the SEC lawsuit over the token’s security status and level the playing field for institutional adoption.

宏調節語調同樣是關鍵的。這項研究將2024年底的大選後集會的400％鏈接到期望對加密貨幣友好的華盛頓將結束SEC訴訟對代幣的安全狀況的結束，並將機構採用的競爭環境提升。

In the Max Case, that clarity, plus growth in real-world-asset tokenisation projected by Statista at $10.9 trillion by 2030, allows XRP to claim a 1–2 percent foothold—enough, Bitwise argues, to justify a capitalisation of roughly $2.9 trillion, or 13.8 percent of their projected $21 trillion Bitcoin market cap.

在最大案例中，statista預計，到2030年預計的現實情況下的象徵化的增長，到2030年為10.9萬億美元，允許XRP索取1-2％的立足點 - 必須證明，位於大約2.9.8％的Trillion，即21美元的Trillion BitCoin BitCoin Market Cops Cops Market Caps of Bitwise Aldwise Aldwise辯稱。

Sceptics will note that the same report catalogues the risks: institutional inertia, rival blockchains, and the possibility that ledger activity scales while direct

懷疑論者會指出，同一報告會列出風險：機構慣性，競爭對手區塊鏈以及分類帳活動擴展而直接的可能性