比特幣突破了$ 100000，達到$ 104000

本週比特幣打破了$ 100000的水平，達到了104000美元，然後調節至103000美元。此舉是在有消息稱美國和中國官員將坐在瑞士談論可能的貿易協定之後的。

Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 level this week, reaching $104,000 before moderating to about $103,000. The move came after news that U.S. and Chinese officials would sit down in Switzerland to talk about a possible trade agreement. Markets responded promptly. Optimism returned, and Bitcoin rose accordingly. But analysts are seeing beyond the headlines. Global liquidity is the real story.

本週比特幣打破了100,000美元的水平，達到104,000美元，然後減少了約103,000美元。此舉是在有消息稱美國和中國官員將坐在瑞士談論可能的貿易協定之後的。市場迅速做出了回應。樂觀恢復了，比特幣相應地升起。但是分析師超越了頭條新聞。全球流動性是真實的故事。

Global M2 Reaches $111 Trillion

全球M2達到111萬億美元

Julien Bittel, a macro researcher at Global Macro Investor, is of the opinion that global M2 money supply is a good leading indicator of where Bitcoin is going. He presented a chart illustrating a 12-week lag between increasing M2 and the price of the top crypto. Briefly put, when M2 increases, Bitcoin follows around three months later.

全球宏觀投資者的宏觀研究人員朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）認為，全球M2貨幣供應是比特幣要去的好指標。他提供了一個圖表，說明了M2的增加與頂級加密貨幣的價格之間存在12週的滯後。簡而言之，當M2增加時，比特幣大約在三個月後。

Lots of you have been asking for the updated Global M2 vs. Bitcoin chart. Well, here it is…

你們中的許多人一直在要求更新的全局M2與比特幣圖表。好吧，這是…

And yes – it still tells the same story:

是的 - 它仍然講述相同的故事：

We’re going higher… pic.twitter.com/kv7QSE9iGN

我們要更高... pic.twitter.com/kv7qse9ign

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) May 9, 2025

-Julien Tiny，CFA（@bittjulien）2025年5月9日

Between early 2023 and early 2024, global M2 increased from $98 trillion to slightly over $108 trillion. Bitcoin came along, finally breaking above $100,000. But mid-2024, M2 ceased its ascension for a period.

在2023年初至2024年初之間，全球M2從98萬億美元增加到略高於1008萬億美元。比特幣出現，終於打破了100,000美元以上。但是2024年中期，M2停止了一段時間。

Bitcoin also tapered off, falling below $80,000 during that period. Bittel referred to that range as a consolidation phase. Today, M2 is moving once again—quickly. It’s passed $111 trillion. If that trend continues, BTC could keep rising into mid-2025.

比特幣也逐漸減少，在此期間下跌低於80,000美元。 Bittel將該範圍稱為合併階段。今天，M2再次移動 - 質量。它通過了111萬億美元。如果這種趨勢持續下去，BTC可以繼續升級到2025年中。

“We’re going higher,” Bittel said, pointing to the strong rise in global M2 as the signal.

貝特爾說：“我們要高得更高。”他指出，全球M2作為信號的強勁增長。

Others Think Bitcoin Is The Top Dog

其他人認為比特幣是頂級狗

Not everyone agrees with Bittel’s timeline. Analyst Benjamin Cohen raised doubts about the idea that the crypto asset always lags behind liquidity changes. He pointed out that Bitcoin hit its highs in 2017 and 2021 before M2 peaked. That doesn’t fit the theory of M2 leading BTC by 12 weeks.

並非每個人都同意Bittel的時間表。分析師本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cohen）對加密資產始終落後於流動性變化的想法提出了懷疑。他指出，在M2達到頂峰之前，比特幣在2017年和2021年達到了最高點。在12週時，這與M2領先的BTC理論不符。

Cohen provided an alternative perspective. He believes Bitcoin could very well lead, with changes to M2 appearing later. If that’s the case, then the coin’s recent ascent is perhaps forewarning us that global liquidity could decrease in the coming months.

科恩提供了另一種觀點。他認為比特幣很可能會導致M2的變化。如果是這樣，那麼硬幣最近的上升也許使我們有力地說，在未來幾個月中，全球流動性可能會減少。

What if #Bitcoin leads liquidity, rather than lags it?

如果#BitCoin導致流動性而不是落後該怎麼辦？

A lot of people show this chart, where they offset global M2 by 3-4 months and show BTC following it.

許多人顯示了這張圖表，在該圖表中，他們將全球M2縮短了3-4個月，並顯示了BTC之後。

The problem is that in 2021, this offset shows M2 going up for 6 months after BTC topped. pic.twitter.com/gpkbW9jboG

問題在於，在2021年，此偏移表明M2在BTC上升後持續了6個月。 pic.twitter.com/gpkbw9jbog

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) May 8, 2025

- 本傑明·考恩（@intocryptoverse）2025年5月8日

FTX Collapse Still Echoes

FTX崩潰仍然迴盪

Cohen also referenced what occurred in 2022, when Bitcoin fell hard. That drop coincided with M2 bottoming out—but the drop persisted longer due to the FTX debacle. He maintained that Bitcoin’s price movements do not always adhere to the same timeline as M2. Exchange failures like the one experienced can disrupt the rhythm.

科恩還提到了2022年比特幣跌倒時發生的事情。下降與M2觸底相吻合 - 但是由於FTX崩潰，下降持續更長。他堅持認為，比特幣的價格變動並不總是與M2相同的時間表。像一個經驗豐富的交換失敗會破壞節奏。

This perspective uncovers another type of forecast. If BTC is trailing, rather than leading, then the current rally may indicate danger on the horizon—not resilience.

這種觀點發現了另一種類型的預測。如果BTC落後而不是領導，那麼當前的集會可能會表明地平線上的危險，而不是彈性。