Bitwise Asset Management发布了一项32页的研究，重点介绍了XRP的投资案例

位资产管理最新的32页研究（XRP的投资案例）将资本分配定价式框架应用于四面楚歌的付款代币，并得出结论，在其最乐观的假设下，它可以在2030年以29.32美元的价格进行交易。到2030年，它的数字是对“ Max Case”的付费。与以前的周期相比，易波动性较低。

Bitwise Asset Management has set a 2030 price target of $29.32 for XRP in a new 32-page study, applying a capital-asset-pricing-style framework to the embattled payments token.

Bitwise Asset Management在一项新的32页研究中，将XRP的2030年目标目标定为29.32美元，并将资本资本定价式框架应用于四面楚歌的付款代币。

The new report, titled The Investment Case for XRP, arrives as the token faces an uncertain legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a bleak technical outlook according to Bitwise's own previous analysis.

根据Bitwise自己以前的分析，标题为XRP投资案件的新报告将于与美国证券交易委员会（美国证券交易委员会）面临不确定的法律斗争，并且技术前景荒凉。

Its analysis begins by noting how, in previous bull market cycles, coins such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) typically exhibited greater volatility and realised higher returns.

它的分析始于指出，在先前的牛市周期中，比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）等硬币通常表现出更大的波动性并实现了更高的回报。

However, Bitwise anticipates that in the next bull cycle, which it expects to unfold in 2024, coins will enter a new phase of lower volatility and more sustainable returns. This, it adds, is due to the maturation of the digital asset class and increased institutional participation.

但是，Bitwise预计在下一个公牛周期中，它预计将在2024年展开，硬币将进入一个新的波动性和更可持续回报的新阶段。补充说，这是由于数字资产类别的成熟和机构参与的增加所致。

The report also notes that, according to Statista, the global market for tokenised assets will reach $10.9 trillion by 2030. This broad category encompasses various forms of digital securities, including equity, fixed income, and real estate tokens.

该报告还指出，根据Statista的数据，到2030年，全球令牌资产市场将达到10.9万亿美元。这一广泛类别涵盖了各种形式的数字证券，包括股权，固定收入和房地产令牌。

Capitalising on this backdrop, Bitwise’s report models three distinct price scenarios for XRP over the next seven years, starting from its current price of around $2.10.

在此背景下，Bitwise的报告在未来七年内为XRP的三个不同的价格情景建模，从目前的价格约为2.10美元。

Its customised CAPM equation is RXRP = e^(–κ·σ) (α + β·Rm), discounting expected returns for volatility before layering the specific alpha and its historical beta of roughly 1.92 to the broader crypto market.

其自定义的CAPM方程为RXRP = E^（ - κ·σ）（α +β·RM），在将特定的Alpha及其历史β的预期回报率折现为浪费及其历史beta，大约为1.92的较广泛的加密货币市场。

Each of the three regimes has varying assumptions for alpha and volatility, which are then used to generate the 2023-2030 revenue and capitalisation forecasts.

这三个制度中的每一个都有不同的α和波动性假设，然后将其用于产生2023-2030的收入和资本化预测。

In the Bear Scenario, an alpha of –50 percent and a 147 percent volatility assumption drive the price to $0.13. By contrast, the baseline Bull Scenario, with zero alpha and 89 percent volatility, yields $12.68.

在熊情况下，α为–50％和147％的波动性假设将价格提高到0.13美元。相比之下，基线牛场的情况为零α和89％的波动率，产生了12.68美元。

However, the Max Case assigns a one-percent alpha and trims volatility to 75 percent, tying in more closely with Bitwise’s broader market outlooks. This produces an annualised return of 46 percent and the headline 2030 price target of $29.32. As the report puts it, “RXRP = 0.47 ∙ (1% + 1.92 ∙ 60%), … placing [it] at roughly $29.30 by 2030.”

但是，最大案例将一倍的alpha和修剪率分配到75％，与Bitwise的更广泛的市场前景更紧密地联系在一起。这将产生年度回报率为46％，头条2030目标目标为29.32美元。正如报告所说，“ RXRP = 0.47∙（1％ + 1.92∙60％），……将[IT]放在2030年的$ 29.30中。”

Such a price multiple would capitalize a 1–2 percent slice of the broader use cases that Bitwise anticipates going to crypto broadly. Those rates place Bitcoin at $21 trillion and puts the total market cap at $160 trillion.

这样的价格倍数将使位于Bitwise预计将大量加密的更广泛用例中的1-2％的份额资本。这些利率将比特币定为21万亿美元，并将总市值定为1600万亿美元。

The report adds that the token’s unique mechanics could amplify any demand shock. The fixed 100 billion supply is already 57 billion in circulation, while about 37.7 billion sits in Ripple-controlled escrow that drips onto the market but is often re-escrowed, pushing full float-out to roughly 2033 on current trends.

该报告补充说，令牌的独特机制可以扩大任何需求冲击。固定的1000亿供应已经在流通量上为570亿，而大约377亿次的旋转托管托管托管滴落到市场上，但经常被重新提高，在当前趋势上大约将全面浮动到2033年。

Moreover, each on-ledger transaction destroys 0.00001 XRP; some 13.46 million coins have been burned to date. “A 100× increase in transaction volume … would mean 0.75 percent is removed from circulation each year,” the authors note, suggesting a structural tail-wind should usage accelerate.

此外，每项领导交易都会破坏0.00001 XRP；迄今为止，大约有1346万枚硬币被燃烧。作者指出：“交易量增加100倍，这意味着每年从循环中删除0.75％的量。”

Whether that acceleration materialises hinges on the ledger’s technical and regulatory position. The XRP Ledger settles transactions in three to five seconds at roughly 1,500 tps and includes compliance-oriented features such as native decentralised identity, a central-limit-orderbook DEX and forthcoming side-chains aimed at asset tokenisation. Bitwise also reminds readers that Ripple’s treasury—worth an estimated $80 billion—gives the ecosystem a uniquely large development war-chest.

加速度是否实现了账户技术和监管位置的取决。 XRP分类帐以大约1,500 TPS在三到五秒钟内定居，其中包括面向合规性的特征，例如天然分散的身份，中央级订购的书籍DEX和即将出版的侧链，旨在资产标记。 Bitwise还提醒读者，Ripple的财政部（估计为800亿美元）使生态系统成为一个独特的大型开发战争冠军。

Macro-regulatory tone is likewise pivotal. The study links a 400 percent post-election rally in late 2024 to expectations that a crypto-friendly Washington will end the SEC lawsuit over the token’s security status and level the playing field for institutional adoption.

宏调节语调同样是关键的。这项研究将2024年底的大选后集会的400％链接到期望对加密货币友好的华盛顿将结束SEC诉讼对代币的安全状况的结束，并将机构采用的竞争环境提升。

In the Max Case, that clarity, plus growth in real-world-asset tokenisation projected by Statista at $10.9 trillion by 2030, allows XRP to claim a 1–2 percent foothold—enough, Bitwise argues, to justify a capitalisation of roughly $2.9 trillion, or 13.8 percent of their projected $21 trillion Bitcoin market cap.

在最大案例中，statista预计，到2030年预计的现实情况下的象征化的增长，到2030年为10.9万亿美元，允许XRP索取1-2％的立足点 - 必须证明，位于大约2.9.8％的Trillion，即21美元的Trillion BitCoin BitCoin Market Cops Cops Market Caps of Bitwise Aldwise Aldwise辩称。

Sceptics will note that the same report catalogues the risks: institutional inertia, rival blockchains, and the possibility that ledger activity scales while direct

怀疑论者会指出，同一报告会列出风险：机构惯性，竞争对手区块链以及分类帐活动扩展而直接的可能性