加密投資者的故事時間：氦氣，彭德爾和尋找敘事的藝術

作者：拜倫·吉利亞姆（Byron Gilliam）

"The social goal of skillful investing should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance that loom over our future." —John Maynard Keynes, famous economist

“熟練投資的社會目標應該是擊敗時間和無知的黑暗力量，這在我們的未來中迫在眉睫。” - 約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯（John Maynard Keynes），著名的經濟學家

Story time for crypto investors

加密投資者的故事時間

Despite the large numbers involved, investing is generally considered to be more of an art than a science.

儘管涉及大量數量，但通常認為投資更多是一種藝術而不是科學。

"The selection of common stocks is a difficult art," Benjamin Graham once warned.

本傑明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）警告說：“選擇普通股是一項艱鉅的藝術。”

Graham's lifelong student Warren Buffett further clarified that "Investing is an art...putting cash now in the hope of getting more cash in the future."

格雷厄姆（Graham）的終身學生沃倫·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）進一步澄清說：“投資是一門藝術……現在就把現金投入到希望將來獲得更多現金。”

Almost all investing comes down to forecasting future cash flows.

幾乎所有的投資都歸結為預測未來的現金流量。

But Peter Lynch warns that investors who are “trained to rigidly quantify everything are at a great disadvantage.”

但是彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）警告說，“受過嚴格量化一切的培訓的投資者處於極劣勢”。

However, this does not mean that “valuations are just a meme,” as some financial nihilists claim.

但是，這並不意味著“估值只是一個模因”，正如一些財務虛無者所說。

Rather, it means that applying and interpreting quantifiable valuation metrics is a creative activity in itself.

相反，這意味著應用和解釋可量化的估值指標本身就是一項創造性活動。

Choosing which valuation metric to apply to which investment is a subjective decision—and knowing how to interpret the results is even more so.

選擇哪種估值指標適用於哪個投資是一個主觀的決定，並且知道如何解釋結果。

For example, a low valuation does not necessarily mean that the stock is cheap, and a high valuation does not necessarily mean that the stock is expensive (often the opposite is true).

例如，低估並不一定意味著股票便宜，高估並不一定意味著股票昂貴（通常相反的是真的）。

A stock may look very cheap on some metrics and extremely expensive on others.

股票在某些指標上看起來很便宜，而另一些股票則非常昂貴。

There is no obvious correlation between these valuations and actual returns.

這些估值與實際回報之間沒有明顯的相關性。

This can often be frustrating -- if cheap stocks aren't going to go up and expensive stocks aren't going to go down, why bother trying to figure it all out?

這通常會令人沮喪 - 如果便宜的股票不增加，而昂貴的股票不會下跌，為什麼還要努力解決所有問題呢？

I think it’s all worth looking into because that’s what makes investing interesting and appealing — and if that’s the case, the fun of crypto investing has only just begun.

我認為這一切都值得一看，因為這是使投資有趣和吸引人的原因 - 如果是這樣，那麼加密投資的樂趣才剛剛開始。

Until recently, crypto investors had very limited options when it came to data, with little available beyond token prices and market capitalization.

直到最近，加密投資者在數據方面的選擇非常有限，幾乎沒有代幣價格和市值。

This makes everything in crypto a “story” — and that’s okay!

這使得加密中的所有內容都成為“故事” - 沒關係！

Investing is essentially the art of storytelling.

投資本質上是講故事的藝術。

However, the best investment stories are often told in numbers, and the crypto space is gradually having such conditions as more protocols begin to generate revenue and a larger portion of these revenues are distributed to token holders.

但是，最好的投資故事經常被告知數字，並且加密貨幣空間逐漸具有條件，因為更多的協議開始產生收入，並且這些收入的很大一部分分配給了代幣持有人。

Furthermore, these numbers have become more accessible thanks to the work of organizations like Blockworks Research, whose analysts package this data into easy-to-understand charts and reports for us to reference.

此外，由於Blockworks Research等組織的工作，這些數字變得更加易於訪問，該組織的分析師將這些數據包裝到易於理解的圖表和報告中，供我們參考。

This helps the crypto space move to a higher level of narrative: telling stories with numbers.

這有助於加密空間移至更高水平的敘述：用數字講述故事。

Let's look at some current numbers.

讓我們看看一些當前的數字。

Ethereum vs. Solana

以太坊與索拉納

Judging from crypto Twitter and podcasts, it seems that market sentiment for Ethereum has hit new lows, especially compared to Solana.

從加密推特和播客來看，以太坊的市場情緒似乎已經達到了新的低點，尤其是與Solana相比。

But if a newcomer with a traditional finance (TradFi) background looks at the data directly, he or she may come to a completely different conclusion.

但是，如果具有傳統金融（TradFI）背景的新來者直接查看數據，他或她可能會得出一個完全不同的結論。

According to Blockworks Research, Solana recorded $36 million in “net token holder income” in April, which gives the SOL token an annualized earnings multiple of 178x — a multiple that, while high, may be justified given current low activity levels.

根據Blockworks Research的數據，Solana在4月的“淨令牌持有人的收入”中記錄了3600萬美元，這使SOL令牌的年度收入倍數為178倍，鑑於當前的低活動水平，這一倍數可能是合理的。

In comparison, Ethereum’s token holders netted $21 million in April, giving ETH tokens a whopping 841x earnings multiple.

相比之下，以太坊的代幣持有人在4月份獲得了2100萬美元，使ETH代幣的收益高達841倍。

An investor from traditional finance (TradFi) wouldn’t immediately think, “Wow, why is everyone so pessimistic about Ethereum?” when he sees ETH’s valuation multiple is 5x that of SOL.

來自傳統金融（Tradfi）的投資者不會立即想到：“哇，為什麼每個人都對以太坊如此悲觀？”當他看到ETH的估值倍數是SOL的5倍。

But they also won’t immediately assume that the market is 5 times more positive about Solana than Ethereum.

但是他們也不會立即假設市場對Solana的陽性比以太坊高5倍。

Instead, they might conclude that Solana’s revenue valuation is lower, perhaps because it derives primarily from “low-quality” memecoin trading activity, while Ethereum’s revenue valuation is higher, at least in part, due to its inclusion of higher-quality activity, such as revenue associated with real-world assets (RWAs).

取而代之的是，他們可能會得出結論，Solana的收入估值較低，也許是因為它主要源於“低質量” Memecoin交易活動，而以太坊的收入估值至少在某種程度上是由於其包括與現實世界中的收入相關的高質量活動（RWAS）（RWAS）。

Now we have some perspectives to analyse: if you think memecoin trading activity is not that low quality, then SOL may be undervalued; and if you think real-world assets are the future, then ETH may not be overvalued.

現在，我們有一些觀點要分析：如果您認為Memecoin交易活動不是那麼低質量，那麼SOL可能會被低估；而且，如果您認為現實世界中的資產是未來，那麼ETH可能不會被高估。

Of course, you can dig deeper to get more information.

當然，您可以更深入地挖掘以獲取更多信息。

According to Blockworks Research, the combined revenue of all Solana applications is only about 1.8 times the revenue of Solana itself.

根據Blockworks Research的數據，所有Solana應用程序的合併收入僅是Solana本身收入的1.8倍。

For a platform-based business, this is a very high take rate - far higher than Apple's 30% cap, and the US government even believes that Apple's take rate is already monopolistic.

對於基於平台的業務，這是一個很高的收費率 - 遠高於蘋果的30％上限，美國政府甚至認為蘋果的承擔率已經壟斷。

This could mean that Solana’s revenue is too high, so its token valuation multiple should be low; or, it could mean that Solana has a business moat, so its token valuation multiple should be high.

這可能意味著Solana的收入太高，因此其代幣估值倍數應該很低。或者，這可能意味著Solana有商務護城河，因此其代幣估值的多個應該很高。

In either case, this is a story worth watching.

無論哪種情況，這都是一個值得一看的故事。

Hyperliquid

超流動

Hyperliquid is a semi-decentralized crypto exchange with a somewhat peculiar story: the protocol generated a whopping $43 million in revenue in April

Hyproliquid是一種半居中的加密交易所，有一個奇特的故事：該協議在4月的收入高達4300萬美元