Bitwise Asset Management Publishes a 32-Page Study Highlighting the Investment Case for XRP

Bitwise Asset Management's latest 32-page study, The Investment Case for XRP, applies a capital-asset-pricing-style framework to the embattled payments token and concludes that, under its most optimistic assumptions, it could trade at $29.32 by 2030. The figure is the output of what the authors label the “Max Case”, in which the token “secures a modest but meaningful slice of the multi-trillion payments and tokenization use cases” and enjoys lower volatility than in previous cycles.

Bitwise Asset Management has set a 2030 price target of $29.32 for XRP in a new 32-page study, applying a capital-asset-pricing-style framework to the embattled payments token.

The new report, titled The Investment Case for XRP, arrives as the token faces an uncertain legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a bleak technical outlook according to Bitwise's own previous analysis.

Its analysis begins by noting how, in previous bull market cycles, coins such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) typically exhibited greater volatility and realised higher returns.

However, Bitwise anticipates that in the next bull cycle, which it expects to unfold in 2024, coins will enter a new phase of lower volatility and more sustainable returns. This, it adds, is due to the maturation of the digital asset class and increased institutional participation.

The report also notes that, according to Statista, the global market for tokenised assets will reach $10.9 trillion by 2030. This broad category encompasses various forms of digital securities, including equity, fixed income, and real estate tokens.

Capitalising on this backdrop, Bitwise’s report models three distinct price scenarios for XRP over the next seven years, starting from its current price of around $2.10.

Its customised CAPM equation is RXRP = e^(–κ·σ) (α + β·Rm), discounting expected returns for volatility before layering the specific alpha and its historical beta of roughly 1.92 to the broader crypto market.

Each of the three regimes has varying assumptions for alpha and volatility, which are then used to generate the 2023-2030 revenue and capitalisation forecasts.

In the Bear Scenario, an alpha of –50 percent and a 147 percent volatility assumption drive the price to $0.13. By contrast, the baseline Bull Scenario, with zero alpha and 89 percent volatility, yields $12.68.

However, the Max Case assigns a one-percent alpha and trims volatility to 75 percent, tying in more closely with Bitwise’s broader market outlooks. This produces an annualised return of 46 percent and the headline 2030 price target of $29.32. As the report puts it, “RXRP = 0.47 ∙ (1% + 1.92 ∙ 60%), … placing [it] at roughly $29.30 by 2030.”

Such a price multiple would capitalize a 1–2 percent slice of the broader use cases that Bitwise anticipates going to crypto broadly. Those rates place Bitcoin at $21 trillion and puts the total market cap at $160 trillion.

The report adds that the token’s unique mechanics could amplify any demand shock. The fixed 100 billion supply is already 57 billion in circulation, while about 37.7 billion sits in Ripple-controlled escrow that drips onto the market but is often re-escrowed, pushing full float-out to roughly 2033 on current trends.

Moreover, each on-ledger transaction destroys 0.00001 XRP; some 13.46 million coins have been burned to date. “A 100× increase in transaction volume … would mean 0.75 percent is removed from circulation each year,” the authors note, suggesting a structural tail-wind should usage accelerate.

Whether that acceleration materialises hinges on the ledger’s technical and regulatory position. The XRP Ledger settles transactions in three to five seconds at roughly 1,500 tps and includes compliance-oriented features such as native decentralised identity, a central-limit-orderbook DEX and forthcoming side-chains aimed at asset tokenisation. Bitwise also reminds readers that Ripple’s treasury—worth an estimated $80 billion—gives the ecosystem a uniquely large development war-chest.

Macro-regulatory tone is likewise pivotal. The study links a 400 percent post-election rally in late 2024 to expectations that a crypto-friendly Washington will end the SEC lawsuit over the token’s security status and level the playing field for institutional adoption.

In the Max Case, that clarity, plus growth in real-world-asset tokenisation projected by Statista at $10.9 trillion by 2030, allows XRP to claim a 1–2 percent foothold—enough, Bitwise argues, to justify a capitalisation of roughly $2.9 trillion, or 13.8 percent of their projected $21 trillion Bitcoin market cap.

Sceptics will note that the same report catalogues the risks: institutional inertia, rival blockchains, and the possibility that ledger activity scales while direct