比特幣和“五月出售並消失”的季節性：數據怎麼說

最近幾天，比特幣經歷了重大突破，推動了交易者的樂觀情緒，並將期望推向了可能

In the realm of financial markets, sayings and proverbs often pass through generations of traders, carrying wisdom gleaned from years of experience. One such saying, “Sell in May and go away,” stems from the early years of the London Stock Exchange and refers to the tendency for U.S. stock markets to exhibit weaker performance during the summer months (May-October) compared to the winter months (November-April).

在金融市場的領域，俗語和諺語經常經過幾代交易者，帶來了從多年經驗中獲得的智慧。一句話是“五月出售並消失”，這是倫敦證券交易所早期的原因，是指與冬季（11月至4月）相比，美國股市在夏季（5月至10月）表現出較弱的性能較弱的趨勢。

The saying advises selling one’s positions in May and then re-entering the market in the autumn. This maxim, originally related to traditional equities, might also apply to the world of cryptocurrencies, as evidenced by recent data and the increasing correlation between crypto and macroeconomic cycles.

俗話說，建議在五月出售自己的職位，然後在秋天重新進入市場。最初與傳統股票相關的格言也可能適用於加密貨幣的世界，最近數據證明了加密貨幣與宏觀經濟周期之間的相關性的增加。

The tale of two halves: Is May a turning point?

兩半的故事：可以轉折點嗎？

Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, sheds light on the proverb's origin and its potential relevance today.

BTSE的首席運營官Jeff Mei是一家領先的加密貨幣交易所的首席運營官，闡明了諺語的起源及其潛在的相關性。

“The saying ‘Sell in May and go away’ stems from the early days of the London Stock Exchange, later adapted by U.S. investors. It's claimed that U.S. stocks tend to perform poorly between May and October. This could be due to lower trading volumes, less activity from large institutional investors, and a general decrease in volatility during the summer months. As a result, investors were advised to sell their holdings in May and return in the autumn.”

“這句話'五月出售並消失'的原因是倫敦證券交易所的早期，後來由美國投資者改編。聲稱美國股票在5月至10月之間的表現往往很差。這可能是由於交易量較低，大型機構投資者的活動較少，從大型機構投資者進行的活動，夏季的大月份的一般揮發率以及在夏季的總體下降。

According to Mei, “historically, the coming months have been weak for financial markets, with many investors following the proverb and selling their stocks in May to return in November. However, this year might be an exception.”

據MEI稱，“從歷史上看，未來幾個月對於金融市場來說是薄弱的，許多投資者追隨諺語並在5月份出售其股票在11月返回。但是，今年可能是一個例外。”

This statement is supported by recent data. Bitcoin has already touched $97,000, and some growth-related stocks, such as Nvidia and AMD, are showing signs of recovery after the recent downturn.

最新數據支持此聲明。比特幣已經觸及了97,000美元，一些與增長有關的股票（例如NVIDIA和AMD）在最近的低迷後顯示出恢復的跡象。

Despite this, the latest figures on U.S. GDP show a possible risk of recession, which could be mitigated by potential interest rate cuts later in the year.

儘管如此，美國GDP的最新數據顯示出可能遇到衰退的風險，這可能會因今年晚些時候的潛在利率降低而減輕。

The seasonality of Bitcoin

比特幣的季節性

According to data from CoinGlass, a cryptocurrency analytics firm, Bitcoin has often shown weak or negative performance in the month of May in recent years.

根據Coinglass的數據，一家加密貨幣分析公司的數據，比特幣在近年來5月份經常表現出弱或負性。

There have been exceptions: in May 2019, Bitcoin rose by 52%, one of the best post-2018 performances. However, negative May months are often followed by further declines in June: in the last five years, four out of five June months closed in the red.

有例外：2019年5月，比特幣上漲了52％，是2018年後最好的表演之一。但是，五月幾個月通常會在6月進一步下降：在過去的五年中，6月份的五個月中有四個月在紅色中封閉。

Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, and this year could unfold differently. Nevertheless, these observations suggest that the cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles and seasonality, just like traditional stock markets.

當然，過去的績效不能保證未來的結果，今年可能會有所不同。然而，這些觀察結果表明，像傳統股票市場一樣，加密貨幣市場對宏觀經濟周期和季節性變得越來越敏感。

The tale of two halves: Is May a turning point?

兩半的故事：可以轉折點嗎？

As the month of May approaches, some analysts are advising caution, recalling an old saying in financial markets: “Sell in May and go away.”

隨著五月的臨近，一些分析師提出謹慎的態度，回憶起金融市場上的一句老話：“五月出售並消失。”

This expression, originating in the early years of the London Stock Exchange, suggests selling one’s positions in May and then re-entering the markets in autumn, due to the historical tendency for weaker performance during the summer months.

這種表達起源於倫敦證券交易所的早期，這表明在五月出售自己的職位，然後在秋季重新進入市場，這是由於夏季績效較弱的歷史趨勢。

According to a report by Bitget, the saying is linked to the observation that U.S. stock markets usually record lower returns between May and October compared to the November-April period.

根據Bitget的一份報告，這句話與觀察到的觀察是，美國股票市場通常在5月至10月之間的回報率與11月至4月相比。

This difference in seasonality is attributed to various factors. During the summer months, trading activity tends to decrease, leading to less price pressure and potential for significant gains. Moreover, large institutional investors, who play a crucial role in market movements, are typically less active in the May-October period.

這種季節性差異歸因於各種因素。在夏季，貿易活動往往會減少，從而減輕了價格壓力和大幅增長的潛力。此外，在5月至10月期間，大型機構投資者在市場變動中發揮了關鍵作用，通常不那麼活躍。

Finally, during the summer months, macroeconomic events and news cycles tend to slow down, reducing volatility and the frequency of sharp price fluctuations.

最後，在夏季，宏觀經濟事件和新聞周期往往會放慢速度，降低了波動率和急劇價格波動的頻率。

The saying "Sell in May and go May" advises selling positions in May and returning to the markets in the autumn, when these trends are expected to reverse.

俗話說：“五月和五月出售”建議在五月份出售頭寸並在秋季返回市場，當時這些趨勢有望逆轉。

"The advice to 'Sell in May' is a maxim that has been passed down through generations of investors, suggesting selling around the month of May and returning to the market in the autumn," explains Vugar Usi Zade, COO of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitget.

加密貨幣交易所Bitget的首席運營官Vugar Usi Zade解釋說：“'5月份出售'的建議是一位信號，已經通過幾代投資者傳遞，建議在五月左右出售，並在秋季返回市場。”

"According to observations since 1950, the S&P 500 has recorded an average gain of just 1.8% from May to October, with positive returns only 65% of the time. In contrast, from November to April, the average gain is 10.5%, with 80% of periods in the black."

“根據自1950年以來的觀察，標準普爾500指數的平均收益從5月到10月的平均增長率僅為1.8％，正數的收益僅為65％。相比之下，從11月到4月，平均收益為10.5％，黑色時期為80％。”

While this data refers to the stock market, it can be relevant for understanding how investor sentiment, which is a key driver of market trends, tends to vary throughout the year.

儘管此數據是指股票市場，但它可能與了解市場趨勢的主要驅動力的投資者情緒如何在全年中趨於不同。

"The saying 'Sell in May and go May' is a product of a different era, when the market structure and investor behavior were different," adds Zade. "In today's rapidly changing crypto market, it's best to rely on advanced technical analysis, fundamental data, and personal risk tolerance

Zade補充說：“當市場結構和投資者行為不同時，'五月和五月出售是一個不同時代的產物。” “在當今快速變化的加密市場中，最好依靠高級技術分析，基本數據和個人風險承受能力