比特币和“五月出售并消失”的季节性：数据怎么说

最近几天，比特币经历了重大突破，推动了交易者的乐观情绪，并将期望推向了可能

In the realm of financial markets, sayings and proverbs often pass through generations of traders, carrying wisdom gleaned from years of experience. One such saying, “Sell in May and go away,” stems from the early years of the London Stock Exchange and refers to the tendency for U.S. stock markets to exhibit weaker performance during the summer months (May-October) compared to the winter months (November-April).

在金融市场的领域，俗语和谚语经常经过几代交易者，带来了从多年经验中获得的智慧。一句话是“五月出售并消失”，这是伦敦证券交易所早期的原因，是指与冬季（11月至4月）相比，美国股市在夏季（5月至10月）表现出较弱的性能较弱的趋势。

The saying advises selling one’s positions in May and then re-entering the market in the autumn. This maxim, originally related to traditional equities, might also apply to the world of cryptocurrencies, as evidenced by recent data and the increasing correlation between crypto and macroeconomic cycles.

俗话说，建议在五月出售自己的职位，然后在秋天重新进入市场。最初与传统股票相关的格言也可能适用于加密货币的世界，最近数据证明了加密货币与宏观经济周期之间的相关性的增加。

The tale of two halves: Is May a turning point?

两半的故事：可以转折点吗？

Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, sheds light on the proverb's origin and its potential relevance today.

BTSE的首席运营官Jeff Mei是一家领先的加密货币交易所的首席运营官，阐明了谚语的起源及其潜在的相关性。

“The saying ‘Sell in May and go away’ stems from the early days of the London Stock Exchange, later adapted by U.S. investors. It's claimed that U.S. stocks tend to perform poorly between May and October. This could be due to lower trading volumes, less activity from large institutional investors, and a general decrease in volatility during the summer months. As a result, investors were advised to sell their holdings in May and return in the autumn.”

“这句话'五月出售并消失'的原因是伦敦证券交易所的早期，后来由美国投资者改编。声称美国股票在5月至10月之间的表现往往很差。这可能是由于交易量较低，大型机构投资者的活动较少，从大型机构投资者进行的活动，夏季的大月份的一般挥发率以及在夏季的总体下降。

According to Mei, “historically, the coming months have been weak for financial markets, with many investors following the proverb and selling their stocks in May to return in November. However, this year might be an exception.”

据MEI称，“从历史上看，未来几个月对于金融市场来说是薄弱的，许多投资者追随谚语并在5月份出售其股票在11月返回。但是，今年可能是一个例外。”

This statement is supported by recent data. Bitcoin has already touched $97,000, and some growth-related stocks, such as Nvidia and AMD, are showing signs of recovery after the recent downturn.

最新数据支持此声明。比特币已经触及了97,000美元，一些与增长有关的股票（例如NVIDIA和AMD）在最近的低迷后显示出恢复的迹象。

Despite this, the latest figures on U.S. GDP show a possible risk of recession, which could be mitigated by potential interest rate cuts later in the year.

尽管如此，美国GDP的最新数据显示出可能遇到衰退的风险，这可能会因今年晚些时候的潜在利率降低而减轻。

The seasonality of Bitcoin

比特币的季节性

According to data from CoinGlass, a cryptocurrency analytics firm, Bitcoin has often shown weak or negative performance in the month of May in recent years.

根据Coinglass的数据，一家加密货币分析公司的数据，比特币在近年来5月份经常表现出弱或负性。

There have been exceptions: in May 2019, Bitcoin rose by 52%, one of the best post-2018 performances. However, negative May months are often followed by further declines in June: in the last five years, four out of five June months closed in the red.

有例外：2019年5月，比特币上涨了52％，是2018年后最好的表演之一。但是，五月几个月通常会在6月进一步下降：在过去的五年中，6月份的五个月中有四个月在红色中封闭。

Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, and this year could unfold differently. Nevertheless, these observations suggest that the cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles and seasonality, just like traditional stock markets.

当然，过去的绩效不能保证未来的结果，今年可能会有所不同。然而，这些观察结果表明，像传统股票市场一样，加密货币市场对宏观经济周期和季节性变得越来越敏感。

The tale of two halves: Is May a turning point?

两半的故事：可以转折点吗？

As the month of May approaches, some analysts are advising caution, recalling an old saying in financial markets: “Sell in May and go away.”

随着五月的临近，一些分析师提出谨慎的态度，回忆起金融市场上的一句老话：“五月出售并消失。”

This expression, originating in the early years of the London Stock Exchange, suggests selling one’s positions in May and then re-entering the markets in autumn, due to the historical tendency for weaker performance during the summer months.

这种表达起源于伦敦证券交易所的早期，这表明在五月出售自己的职位，然后在秋季重新进入市场，这是由于夏季绩效较弱的历史趋势。

According to a report by Bitget, the saying is linked to the observation that U.S. stock markets usually record lower returns between May and October compared to the November-April period.

根据Bitget的一份报告，这句话与观察到的观察是，美国股票市场通常在5月至10月之间的回报率与11月至4月相比。

This difference in seasonality is attributed to various factors. During the summer months, trading activity tends to decrease, leading to less price pressure and potential for significant gains. Moreover, large institutional investors, who play a crucial role in market movements, are typically less active in the May-October period.

这种季节性差异归因于各种因素。在夏季，贸易活动往往会减少，从而减轻了价格压力和大幅增长的潜力。此外，在5月至10月期间，大型机构投资者在市场变动中发挥了关键作用，通常不那么活跃。

Finally, during the summer months, macroeconomic events and news cycles tend to slow down, reducing volatility and the frequency of sharp price fluctuations.

最后，在夏季，宏观经济事件和新闻周期往往会放慢速度，降低了波动率和急剧价格波动的频率。

The saying "Sell in May and go May" advises selling positions in May and returning to the markets in the autumn, when these trends are expected to reverse.

俗话说：“五月和五月出售”建议在五月份出售头寸并在秋季返回市场，当时这些趋势有望逆转。

"The advice to 'Sell in May' is a maxim that has been passed down through generations of investors, suggesting selling around the month of May and returning to the market in the autumn," explains Vugar Usi Zade, COO of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitget.

加密货币交易所Bitget的首席运营官Vugar Usi Zade解释说：“'5月份出售'的建议是一位信号，已经通过几代投资者传递，建议在五月左右出售，并在秋季返回市场。”

"According to observations since 1950, the S&P 500 has recorded an average gain of just 1.8% from May to October, with positive returns only 65% of the time. In contrast, from November to April, the average gain is 10.5%, with 80% of periods in the black."

“根据自1950年以来的观察，标准普尔500指数的平均收益从5月到10月的平均增长率仅为1.8％，正数的收益仅为65％。相比之下，从11月到4月，平均收益为10.5％，黑色时期为80％。”

While this data refers to the stock market, it can be relevant for understanding how investor sentiment, which is a key driver of market trends, tends to vary throughout the year.

尽管此数据是指股票市场，但它可能与了解市场趋势的主要驱动力的投资者情绪如何在全年中趋于不同。

"The saying 'Sell in May and go May' is a product of a different era, when the market structure and investor behavior were different," adds Zade. "In today's rapidly changing crypto market, it's best to rely on advanced technical analysis, fundamental data, and personal risk tolerance

Zade补充说：“当市场结构和投资者行为不同时，'五月和五月出售是一个不同时代的产物。” “在当今快速变化的加密市场中，最好依靠高级技术分析，基本数据和个人风险承受能力