比特幣不能替代黃金作為避風付款資產

要充分了解比特幣是否可以將黃金替換為避風付用的資產，必須超越歷史表現和波動性。

Can Bitcoin replace gold as a safe-haven asset? It depends on how you frame the question.

比特幣可以將黃金替換為避風港資產嗎？這取決於您如何構架問題。

To fully understand whether Bitcoin can replace gold, we need to look at historical performance and volatility not as standalone factors, but rather, how they build upon each other to tell a story of trust and resilience.

要充分了解比特幣是否可以取代黃金，我們需要研究歷史表現和波動性而不是獨立因素，而是它們如何相互依靠以講述信任和韌性的故事。

Both metals have navigated recent global crises, albeit in different ways. We can go back to the 2008 financial meltdown, where gold prices surged as investors sought protection from collapsing markets. As the crisis unfolded, the yellow metal's price reached an all-time high of around 2,070 USD per ounce during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting its role as a stabiliser.

兩種金屬都在最近的全球危機中導航，儘管以不同的方式。我們可以回到2008年的金融崩潰，隨著投資者尋求保護免受倒塌市場的保護，黃金價格飆升。隨著危機的展開，黃金的價格達到了19日大流行期間的歷史最高點約2,070美元，強調了其作為穩定劑的作用。

Now, let's shift the focus to Bitcoin. Entering the scene later than gold, it faced a different set of challenges. In March 2020, for instance, Bitcoin plunged nearly 50 per cent in a single day amid market panic, whereas gold experienced a more gradual and steady increase. However, Bitcoin's rapid recovery since then showcases its growing resilience. In 2021, it reached nearly $69,000, boosted by institutional adoption. Still, it faced a sharp decline in 2022 due to tightening global monetary policies. But this ability to rebound suggests potential for the future.

現在，讓我們將重點轉移到比特幣上。比黃金晚進入現場，面臨著不同的挑戰。例如，在2020年3月，在市場恐慌的情況下，比特幣在一天中跌倒了近50％，而黃金則經歷了更逐漸和穩定的增長。但是，從那時起，比特幣的迅速恢復展示了其日益增長的彈性。在2021年，它達到了近69,000美元，並受到機構收養的推動。儘管如此，由於全球貨幣政策的收緊，它在2022年仍面臨急劇下降。但是這種反彈的能力表明了未來的潛力。

Why does this matter? Well, havens need to offer consistency during downturns. Gold's slower and more predictable price movements provide this assurance. Bitcoin's sharp swings, however, might make investors wary. But as big players enter the bitcoin market, volatility could ease - potentially paving the way for bitcoin to claim its place as a digital haven.

為什麼這很重要？好吧，避風港在低迷時需要提供一致性。黃金的價格變動越慢，價格變動提供了這種保證。但是，比特幣的急劇波動可能會使投資者保持警惕。但是，隨著大型玩家進入比特幣市場，波動性可能會緩解 - 有可能為比特幣聲稱自己作為數字天堂的位置鋪平道路。

Can Bitcoin truly replace gold?

比特幣可以真正取代黃金嗎？

Gold's status as a haven comes from its ability to store value consistently, especially during crises. For Bitcoin to earn the same level of trust, it must prove it can hold value when markets turn volatile. So far, Bitcoin has been more reactive, mirroring risk assets more than acting as a hedge. This correlation with equities during market downturns raises questions about its safe-haven potential.

黃金作為避風港的地位來自其始終如一地存儲價值的能力，尤其是在危機期間。為了使比特幣獲得相同水平的信任，它必須證明當市場變化時，它可以保持價值。到目前為止，比特幣的反應性更高，反映風險資產比充當樹籬更具反映風險資產。與市場低迷期間股票的這種相關性引發了有關其避風勢潛力的問題。

However, Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins sets it apart. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be devalued through excessive printing, Bitcoin offers protection against inflation - a trait that aligns with gold. As institutional adoption continues, we might see less volatility in the crypto market, making Bitcoin a more stable store of value.

但是，比特幣的固定供應2100萬枚硬幣將其與眾不同。與可以通過過度印刷貶值的法定貨幣不同，比特幣提供了防止通貨膨脹的保護 - 這種特徵與黃金一致。隨著機構採用的繼續，我們可能會看到加密貨幣市場的波動性較小，從而使比特幣成為更穩定的價值存儲。

At their core, gold and Bitcoin represent two different eras of value storage. Gold is tangible, requires physical storage, is universally accepted and has a long history of proven reliability; in contrast, Bitcoin is digital and decentralised, enabling seamless global transactions, though it faces regulatory risks and remains susceptible to technological shifts.

黃金和比特幣在其核心上代表了兩個不同的價值存儲時代。黃金是有形的，需要物理存儲，被普遍接受，並且具有悠久的可靠性歷史；相比之下，比特幣是數字化和分散的，可以實現無縫的全球交易，儘管它面臨監管風險，並且仍然容易受到技術轉變的影響。

While gold's tangibility reassures traditional investors, Bitcoin's digital nature appeals to those looking for borderless, efficient value transfers. The future might not be about one replacing the other, but rather how they complement each other in diversified portfolios.

儘管Gold的有形性使傳統投資者放心，但比特幣的數字性質吸引了那些尋求無邊界，高效價值轉移的人。未來可能不是一個代替另一個，而是他們如何在多元化的投資組合中相互補充。