比特币不能替代黄金作为避风付款资产

要充分了解比特币是否可以将黄金替换为避风付用的资产，必须超越历史表现和波动性。

Can Bitcoin replace gold as a safe-haven asset? It depends on how you frame the question.

比特币可以将黄金替换为避风港资产吗？这取决于您如何构架问题。

To fully understand whether Bitcoin can replace gold, we need to look at historical performance and volatility not as standalone factors, but rather, how they build upon each other to tell a story of trust and resilience.

要充分了解比特币是否可以取代黄金，我们需要研究历史表现和波动性而不是独立因素，而是它们如何相互依靠以讲述信任和韧性的故事。

Both metals have navigated recent global crises, albeit in different ways. We can go back to the 2008 financial meltdown, where gold prices surged as investors sought protection from collapsing markets. As the crisis unfolded, the yellow metal's price reached an all-time high of around 2,070 USD per ounce during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting its role as a stabiliser.

两种金属都在最近的全球危机中导航，尽管以不同的方式。我们可以回到2008年的金融崩溃，随着投资者寻求保护免受倒塌市场的保护，黄金价格飙升。随着危机的展开，黄金的价格达到了19日大流行期间的历史最高点约2,070美元，强调了其作为稳定剂的作用。

Now, let's shift the focus to Bitcoin. Entering the scene later than gold, it faced a different set of challenges. In March 2020, for instance, Bitcoin plunged nearly 50 per cent in a single day amid market panic, whereas gold experienced a more gradual and steady increase. However, Bitcoin's rapid recovery since then showcases its growing resilience. In 2021, it reached nearly $69,000, boosted by institutional adoption. Still, it faced a sharp decline in 2022 due to tightening global monetary policies. But this ability to rebound suggests potential for the future.

现在，让我们将重点转移到比特币上。比黄金晚进入现场，面临着不同的挑战。例如，在2020年3月，在市场恐慌的情况下，比特币在一天中跌倒了近50％，而黄金则经历了更逐渐和稳定的增长。但是，从那时起，比特币的迅速恢复展示了其日益增长的弹性。在2021年，它达到了近69,000美元，并受到机构收养的推动。尽管如此，由于全球货币政策的收紧，它在2022年仍面临急剧下降。但是这种反弹的能力表明了未来的潜力。

Why does this matter? Well, havens need to offer consistency during downturns. Gold's slower and more predictable price movements provide this assurance. Bitcoin's sharp swings, however, might make investors wary. But as big players enter the bitcoin market, volatility could ease - potentially paving the way for bitcoin to claim its place as a digital haven.

为什么这很重要？好吧，避风港在低迷时需要提供一致性。黄金的价格变动越慢，价格变动提供了这种保证。但是，比特币的急剧波动可能会使投资者保持警惕。但是，随着大型玩家进入比特币市场，波动性可能会缓解 - 有可能为比特币声称自己作为数字天堂的位置铺平道路。

Can Bitcoin truly replace gold?

比特币可以真正取代黄金吗？

Gold's status as a haven comes from its ability to store value consistently, especially during crises. For Bitcoin to earn the same level of trust, it must prove it can hold value when markets turn volatile. So far, Bitcoin has been more reactive, mirroring risk assets more than acting as a hedge. This correlation with equities during market downturns raises questions about its safe-haven potential.

黄金作为避风港的地位来自其始终如一地存储价值的能力，尤其是在危机期间。为了使比特币获得相同水平的信任，它必须证明当市场变化时，它可以保持价值。到目前为止，比特币的反应性更高，反映风险资产比充当树篱更具反映风险资产。与市场低迷期间股票的这种相关性引发了有关其避风势潜力的问题。

However, Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins sets it apart. Unlike fiat currencies, which can be devalued through excessive printing, Bitcoin offers protection against inflation - a trait that aligns with gold. As institutional adoption continues, we might see less volatility in the crypto market, making Bitcoin a more stable store of value.

但是，比特币的固定供应2100万枚硬币将其与众不同。与可以通过过度印刷贬值的法定货币不同，比特币提供了防止通货膨胀的保护 - 这种特征与黄金一致。随着机构采用的继续，我们可能会看到加密货币市场的波动性较小，从而使比特币成为更稳定的价值存储。

At their core, gold and Bitcoin represent two different eras of value storage. Gold is tangible, requires physical storage, is universally accepted and has a long history of proven reliability; in contrast, Bitcoin is digital and decentralised, enabling seamless global transactions, though it faces regulatory risks and remains susceptible to technological shifts.

黄金和比特币在其核心上代表了两个不同的价值存储时代。黄金是有形的，需要物理存储，被普遍接受，并且具有悠久的可靠性历史；相比之下，比特币是数字化和分散的，可以实现无缝的全球交易，尽管它面临监管风险，并且仍然容易受到技术转变的影响。

While gold's tangibility reassures traditional investors, Bitcoin's digital nature appeals to those looking for borderless, efficient value transfers. The future might not be about one replacing the other, but rather how they complement each other in diversified portfolios.

尽管Gold的有形性使传统投资者放心，但比特币的数字性质吸引了那些寻求无边界，高效价值转移的人。未来可能不是一个代替另一个，而是他们如何在多元化的投资组合中相互补充。