新的比特幣循環頂部模型建議未來的關鍵日期

據加密分析師Egrag Crypto稱，新的市場時機模型可能有助於查明下一個比特幣週期頂部。

A crypto analyst known as EGRAG CRYPTO has developed a market timing model that he believes could help determine the peak of the next Bitcoin (BTC) cycle.

一位名為Egrag Crypto的加密分析師已經開發了一種市場時機模型，他認為可以幫助確定下一個比特幣（BTC）週期的峰值。

Inspired by analyst Benjamin Cowen, the model links Bitcoin’s previous all-time highs (ATHs) with the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) to predict macro turning points.

受分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）的啟發，該模型將比特幣以前的歷史高點（ATHS）與200週的簡單移動平均線（SMA）聯繫起來，以預測宏觀轉折點。

The concept focuses on the intersection of the 200-week SMA with historical ATH levels. EGRAG observes that across several cycles, these intersections closely coincide with Bitcoin’s macro tops.

該概念側重於200週SMA與歷史ATH層的交集。 Egrag觀察到，在幾個週期中，這些交叉路口與比特幣的宏觀頂部緊密相吻合。

“We can see on the chart how the 200-week MA meets the previous ATHs and marks the top of the cycle in 2011, 2013, 2019, and 2021,” the analyst says.

這位分析師說：“我們可以在圖表上看到200週的MA如何與以前的ATH符合以前的ATH，並標誌著2011、2013、2019和2021年周期的頂部。”

Pattern Repeats Across Multiple BTC Cycles

模式在多個BTC週期中重複

Next Cycle Top? Two Dates Stand Out

下一個週期頂？兩個日期脫穎而出

Projecting the 200-week SMA forward suggests two possibilities for a Bitcoin cycle top, both holding geometrical significance:

預測200週的SMA前鋒表明了比特幣週期頂部的兩種可能性，兩者都具有幾何意義：

• March 2025: A continuation of the pattern from previous cycles.

•2025年3月：以前週期的模式延續。

• October 2025: Reaches the Fibonacci 1.618 level from the 2011 ATH.

•2025年10月：從2011年ATH到達斐波那契1.618。

EGRAG cautions that using long-term averages in volatile markets is tricky, but the historical alignment of this pattern is noteworthy.

Egrag警告說，在揮發性市場中使用長期平均值是棘手的，但是這種模式的歷史一致性值得注意。

“We all know that using long-term moving averages in such a volatile market is not an easy task and can be quite tricky, but the correlation is still interesting to observe,” he adds.

他補充說：“我們都知道，在如此動蕩的市場中使用長期移動平均值並不是一件容易的事，而且可能非常棘手，但是相關性仍然很有趣。”

Just a Framework, Not a Forecast

只是一個框架，而不是預測

EGRAG clarifies that these are projections, not predictions. “Take it or leave it,” he says, noting that only time will reveal the true outcome. However, this model provides a unique perspective on Bitcoin cycle timing and adds another layer to discussions about the next top.

Egrag闡明這些是預測，而不是預測。他說：“拿走或離開它。”他指出，只有時間才能揭示真正的結果。但是，該模型為比特幣週期時機提供了獨特的觀點，並在討論下一個頂部的討論中增加了另一層。