比特幣恢復了它作為大替代品的位置

賣賣派對很晚。但是比特幣終於在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的貿易戰嚇到的投資者中奪回了它的一席之地，並熱衷於拋棄我們

It’s late to the sell-USA party. But bitcoin is finally reclaiming its place as a big alternative for investors spooked by President Donald Trump’s trade war and keen to dump US stocks, Treasuries and the dollar.

賣賣派對很晚。但是，比特幣終於在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統的貿易戰所嚇到的投資者中奪回了其位置，並熱衷於拋棄美國股票，國庫和美元。

After an initial tumble to its lowest levels this year soon after Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs on April 2, the notoriously volatile bitcoin has slowly clawed back ground. It managed to outperform stock markets in 10 out of 17 sessions in that period, VanEck data shows.

在特朗普在4月2日宣布解放日關稅之後不久，今年不久的最低水平達到了最低水平後，臭名昭著的揮發性比特幣逐漸逐漸向後傾斜。 Vaneck的數據顯示，在此期間，它在17個會議中的10個會議中的10次表明，它設法超越了股票市場。

The world’s top and original cryptocurrency is now a whisker away from the $100,000 mark last seen three months ago, after a 15 per cent rise in April alone.

現在，三個月前在四月上升15％之後，世界上最高和原始的加密貨幣遠離了最後一次看到的100,000美元大關的晶須。

By comparison, the S&P 500 (.SPX) slipped around 0.8 per cent in April, the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) eked out 0.8 per cent gains last month, while the US dollar index fell over 4 per cent.

相比之下，標準普爾500指數（.spx）在4月下跌了0.8％，以技術為重點的納斯達克綜合（.ixic）上個月的收益率為0.8％，而美元指數下跌了4％。

“The most recent price action may have begun to validate the view that Bitcoin is not just the 501st company in the SPX,” analysts at research firm Block Scholes said.

研究公司Block Scholes的分析師說：“最近的價格行動可能已經開始驗證比特幣不僅是SPX中的第501家公司的觀點。”

Bitcoin is up 33 per cent from its April low in a surprising turn for the cryptocurrency, given how closely it has mimicked the performance of equity markets in periods of market turmoil- particularly the tech sector – over the past few years.

鑑於過去幾年，比特幣在加密貨幣的驚人轉折中比4月份的低點增長了33％。

But correlations between bitcoin and other asset classes have also shifted, according to Block Scholes, and bitcoin is the most inversely correlated to the steepness of the Treasury yield curve in over two years.

但是，根據Block Scholes的說法，比特幣與其他資產類別之間的相關性也發生了變化，比特幣與兩年來財政收益率曲線的陡峭程度最重要。

“Investors are really starting to respond to (bitcoin) as a potential diversifier,” said Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors.

IDX Advisors首席投資官Ben McMillan說：“投資者確實開始對（比特幣）做出回應。”

Bitcoin has even outperformed gold’s 11 per cent rise since April 2, despite the safe-haven metal’s surge to record highs. Measures of bitcoin’s expected volatility have dropped to 18-month lows, as per Block Scholes.

自從4月2日以來，比特幣的表現甚至超過了Gold的11％上漲，儘管安全的金屬飆升可創下高潮。根據塊學者，比特幣預期波動率的量度已下降至18個月的低點。

“The damage has been done in terms of trust towards the US and dollar assets … but you can’t (diversify) overnight,” said Martin Leinweber, director of digital asset research & strategy at MarketVector Indexes.

MarketVector Indexes數字資產研究與戰略總監Martin Leinweber說：“損害是根據對美國和美元資產的信任而造成的……但是您不能在一夜之間（多元化）。”

“What kind of neutral assets do you have? Underlying that is really a supportive shift towards bitcoin and crypto.”

“您擁有什麼樣的中性資產？這確實是向比特幣和加密貨幣的支持。”

Investors have also turned more bullish on digital asset-focused investment products, with roughly $5.5 billion over the last three weeks flowing into those funds, as per CoinShares data, including $1.8 billion in the week through May 3 for bitcoin products.

根據Coinshares數據，投資者還對以數字資產為中心的投資產品更加看好，在過去的三周中，投資者約有55億美元流入這些資金，其中包括一周至5月3日的比特幣產品的18億美元。

If changing tariff policies continue to drive a move away from US assets, bitcoin could find its next leg higher, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank said in a note to clients.

標準特許銀行數字資產研究負責人傑夫·肯德里克（Geoff Kendrick）在向客戶的一份報告中說，如果不斷變化的關稅政策繼續遠離美國資產，則比特幣可能會發現其下一個腿部更高的問題。

“We expect a strategic asset reallocation away from US assets to trigger the next sharp up swing in bitcoin in the coming months,” Kendrick said, adding he sees bitcoin hitting a new record high of around $120,000 in the second quarter of 2025.

肯德里克說：“我們預計，在未來幾個月中，我們的資產將獲得一項戰略資產重新分配，以觸發比特幣的下一個急劇搖擺。”他補充說，他看到比特幣在2025年第二季度的新創紀錄大約為120,000美元。

TOO MUCH, TOO SOON

太早了

It’s far too early, however, to say bitcoin has severed its ties with macroeconomic developments.

但是，現在說比特幣已經切斷了與宏觀經濟發展的聯繫還為時過早。

Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 briefly dipped to 0.45 in early April but has crept back up to 0.87, as per LSEG data, where 1 indicates they are moving in close step.

比特幣與標準普爾500指數的30天相關性在4月初短暫下降至0.45，但根據LSEG數據，逐回到0.87，其中1表示它們正在近距離移動。

And it still remains some ways from its January record high.

從一月份的紀錄較高來看，這仍然是一些方法。

“I think we’ll inevitably see periods going forward where bitcoin’s correlation (to risk assets) rises again,” said IDX Advisors’ McMillan.

IDX Advisors的Mcmillan說：“我認為我們將不可避免地看到比特幣的相關性（風險資產）再次上升的時期。”

“But the key point is, it is starting to take on trading characteristics of its own.”

“但是關鍵是，它開始具有自己的交易特徵。”