比特幣宏觀夏天即將到來

Bittel解釋說，宏觀“夏季”是他在2025年展開的主要政權，這意味著增長動力正在增加，而通貨膨脹仍然足夠適度，以避免避免過度。

A Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI) has shared his perspective on the upcoming economic cycle and its potential implications for Bitcoin.

全球宏觀投資者（GMI）的宏觀研究負責人分享了他對即將到來的經濟周期及其對比特幣的潛在影響的看法。

In a video titled “The Macro Outlook for 2025: BIG Moves Ahead,” Julien Bittel shared his analysis and offered insights into the factors that could be shaping the markets in the coming year.

朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）在標題為“ 2025年的宏觀前景：前進的宏觀前景”中分享了他的分析，並提供了對可能在來年塑造市場的因素的見解。

According to Bittel, the dominant macro regime that he sees unfolding throughout 2025 is “macro summer.” This term refers to a period where growth momentum is picking up, while inflation remains low enough to allow central banks to avoid overtightening.

根據比特爾的說法，他認為在2025年展開的主要宏觀政權是“宏觀夏天”。該術語是指增長勢頭的時期，而通貨膨脹率仍然足夠低，以允許中央銀行避免過度。

“The business cycle still chugs along. We’re seeing improvement in global manufacturing data and more countries shifting into expansion territory,” said Bittel.

“商業周期仍在繼續。我們看到了全球製造數據的改善以及更多國家轉移到擴張領域的國家。” Bittel說。

He noted that while there may be slight fluctuations in some indicators, including pockets that may briefly resemble a slowdown, these are unlikely to mark the onset of a sustained growth deceleration and rising inflation, which would be characteristic of “macro fall.” Instead, any headwinds are expected to be short-lived, given an overall environment in which global financial conditions are loosening.

他指出，雖然某些指標可能會略有波動，包括​​可能短暫類似於放緩的口袋，但這些口袋不太可能標誌著持續的增長減速和通貨膨脹率上升的發作，這是“宏觀跌倒”的特徵。取而代之的是，鑑於全球財務狀況正在放鬆的整體環境，任何逆風都預計將是短暫的。

Bittel highlighted the decline in US bond yields and the recent weakness in the dollar as factors that will allow “more cowbell” from central banks. Additionally, China's bond yields have also collapsed, which he sees as a major signal that Beijing can provide additional liquidity injections without fearing excessive overheating.

Bittel強調了美國債券收益率的下降和最近的美元弱點，這是允許中央銀行“更多的牛鈴”的因素。此外，中國的債券收益率也崩潰了，他認為這是北京可以提供額外的流動性注射而不擔心過度過熱的主要信號。

“This combination, to me, feels like an echo of 2017, a year where a weaker dollar and lower interest rates contributed to an upswing in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies,” said Bittel.

Bittel說：“對我而言，這種結合感覺就像是2017年的迴聲，這一年的一年，較低的美元和較低的利率在傳統市場和加密貨幣中都促進了上升的效果。”

Turning to inflation, Bittel discussed why shelter and other service-related costs are such significant laggards. He observed that more than one-third of headline CPI is tied to housing, which “typically lags home prices by around 17 months.”

貝特爾（Bittel）轉向通貨膨脹，討論了為什麼庇護所和其他與服務相關的成本如此重要。他觀察到，超過三分之一的標題CPI與住房有關，“通常將房價落後於17個月左右”。

“Shelter inflation is still keeping official CPI numbers elevated. Once we see this dynamic turn down, it should give central banks the leeway to ease monetary policy further,” he noted.

“住房通貨膨脹仍在保持官方CPI數字的提高。一旦我們看到這種動態的倒台，它應該給中央銀行帶來餘地，以進一步緩解貨幣政策。”他說。

While some cyclical forces, such as commodity prices, might push inflation higher later in the year, Bittel emphasized that the peak is not imminent and that the Federal Reserve will likely retain enough flexibility to avoid stifling the ongoing economic rebound.

儘管某些週期性力量（例如商品價格）可能會在今年晚些時候推動通貨膨脹率更高，但比特爾強調，峰值並不是即將到來的，美聯儲可能會保留足夠的靈活性，以避免扼殺正在進行的經濟反彈。

In discussing Bitcoin, Bittel highlighted the role of the business cycle in driving outsized price movements for the leading cryptocurrency.

在討論比特幣時，Bittel強調了商業周期在推動領先的加密貨幣推動價格變動中的作用。

“When the ISM Index barely hovered above 50 in 2013 and 2017, we saw Bitcoin rally by dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro picture abruptly topped out as soon as ISM and liquidity peaked, cutting short the cycle and capping Bitcoin's run at roughly an 8x move from its initial pivot out of recession,” he explained.

“當2013年和2017年ISM索引幾乎不徘徊在50以上時，我們看到了數十個倍數的比特幣集會。在2021年，宏觀圖片一旦ISM峰值突然出現，並且流動性達到頂峰，縮短了周期並將比特幣的運行限制在大約8倍的轉移範圍內，從衰退中的最初的樞紐大致轉移。”他解釋說。

However, today's backdrop looks materially different. Bittel noted that “the ISM is just now moving above 50,” which contrasts with the late 2020–early 2021 surge that raced from the low 40s to the mid-60s almost in one breath.

但是，今天的背景看起來實質上不同。 Bittel指出，“ ISM剛剛移動到50歲以上”，這與2020年後期的2021年後期的激增形成鮮明對比，該激增幾乎一口氣從40年代到60年代中期。

“If we’re right about the weaker dollar and a pickup in global liquidity, Bitcoin's path could more closely resemble the elongated upturn of 2017 than the compressed momentum of 2021,” he added.

他補充說：“如果我們對全球流動性較弱的美元和收集量正確，那麼比特幣的道路可能與2021年壓縮勢頭相比，比特幣的道路更像2017年的拉長上漲。”

Although Bittel did not offer a precise price target for Bitcoin, he referenced the historical precedent of a 23x jump in 2017 once the cycle gained traction.

儘管Bittel沒有為比特幣提供精確的目標價格，但他提到了一旦週期獲得了吸引力，2017年的歷史先例。

“I’m not telling you Bitcoin is going 23x, but in every prior crypto run, we’ve seen persistent strength in the business cycle be the magic gift that keeps on giving,” he noted.

他指出：“我不是告訴你比特幣要23倍，但是在先前的每一次加密貨幣中，我們都看到商業周期中的持久力量是不斷捐贈的神奇禮物。”

While his caution was evident, Bittel expressed optimism that the foundation has been set for an extended upswing, reminding everyone that 20–30% drawdowns are to be expected, even during powerful rallies.

雖然他的謹慎是明顯的，但比特爾對基金會的擴大興趣表示樂觀，提醒所有人，即使在強大的集會期間，也可以期待20％至30％的下降。

“Once you understand where the economy is going, you understand where assets are going. Liquidity, particularly from China, could become an even bigger driver for digital assets as 2025 progresses,” he said.

“一旦您了解經濟的去向，您就會了解資產的去向。隨著2025年的發展，流動性，特別是來自中國的流動性可能成為數字資產的更大驅動力。”他說。

Bittel reinforced the point, saying that “historically, the biggest surges in Bitcoin happened when the ISM is rising and we’re in macro summer.”

Bittel加強了這一點，他說：“從歷史上看，比特幣中最大的衝浪發生在ISM上升時，我們正處於宏觀夏天。”

He also highlighted that any short-term pullbacks in Bitcoin should not be mistaken for macro regime shifts. The cyclical conditions, fueled by easier financial conditions, remain in place, though he reminded viewers to expect corrections and remain patient.

他還強調，比特幣中的任何短期回調都不應誤認為是宏觀政權的變化。儘管他提醒觀眾期望糾正並保持耐心，但由於更容易的財務條件所推動的周期性條件仍然存在。

“It’s never a straight line, and it can feel like the end of the world in some weeks. Yet, given the parallels to 2017 and the ongoing slide in the dollar, I believe the runway for Bitcoin—and other risk assets—still appears relatively long,” said Bittel.

“這從來都不是一條直線，而且幾週後感覺就像世界的盡頭。然而，鑑於與2017年的相似之處以及持續的幻燈片，我相信比特幣和其他風險資產的跑道似乎相對較長。” Bittel說。

While Bittel's presentation also covered broader market segments

雖然Bittel的演講也涵蓋了更廣泛的市場細分市場