比特币宏观夏天即将到来

Bittel解释说，宏观“夏季”是他在2025年展开的主要政权，这意味着增长动力正在增加，而通货膨胀仍然足够适度，以避免避免过度。

A Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI) has shared his perspective on the upcoming economic cycle and its potential implications for Bitcoin.

全球宏观投资者（GMI）的宏观研究负责人分享了他对即将到来的经济周期及其对比特币的潜在影响的看法。

In a video titled “The Macro Outlook for 2025: BIG Moves Ahead,” Julien Bittel shared his analysis and offered insights into the factors that could be shaping the markets in the coming year.

朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）在标题为“ 2025年的宏观前景：前进的宏观前景”中分享了他的分析，并提供了对可能在来年塑造市场的因素的见解。

According to Bittel, the dominant macro regime that he sees unfolding throughout 2025 is “macro summer.” This term refers to a period where growth momentum is picking up, while inflation remains low enough to allow central banks to avoid overtightening.

根据比特尔的说法，他认为在2025年展开的主要宏观政权是“宏观夏天”。该术语是指增长势头的时期，而通货膨胀率仍然足够低，以允许中央银行避免过度。

“The business cycle still chugs along. We’re seeing improvement in global manufacturing data and more countries shifting into expansion territory,” said Bittel.

“商业周期仍在继续。我们看到了全球制造数据的改善以及更多国家转移到扩张领域的国家。” Bittel说。

He noted that while there may be slight fluctuations in some indicators, including pockets that may briefly resemble a slowdown, these are unlikely to mark the onset of a sustained growth deceleration and rising inflation, which would be characteristic of “macro fall.” Instead, any headwinds are expected to be short-lived, given an overall environment in which global financial conditions are loosening.

他指出，虽然某些指标可能会略有波动，包括​​可能短暂类似于放缓的口袋，但这些口袋不太可能标志着持续的增长减速和通货膨胀率上升的发作，这是“宏观跌倒”的特征。取而代之的是，鉴于全球财务状况正在放松的整体环境，任何逆风都预计将是短暂的。

Bittel highlighted the decline in US bond yields and the recent weakness in the dollar as factors that will allow “more cowbell” from central banks. Additionally, China's bond yields have also collapsed, which he sees as a major signal that Beijing can provide additional liquidity injections without fearing excessive overheating.

Bittel强调了美国债券收益率的下降和最近的美元弱点，这是允许中央银行“更多的牛铃”的因素。此外，中国的债券收益率也崩溃了，他认为这是北京可以提供额外的流动性注射而不担心过度过热的主要信号。

“This combination, to me, feels like an echo of 2017, a year where a weaker dollar and lower interest rates contributed to an upswing in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies,” said Bittel.

Bittel说：“对我而言，这种结合感觉就像是2017年的回声，这一年的一年，较低的美元和较低的利率在传统市场和加密货币中都促进了上升的效果。”

Turning to inflation, Bittel discussed why shelter and other service-related costs are such significant laggards. He observed that more than one-third of headline CPI is tied to housing, which “typically lags home prices by around 17 months.”

贝特尔（Bittel）转向通货膨胀，讨论了为什么庇护所和其他与服务相关的成本如此重要。他观察到，超过三分之一的标题CPI与住房有关，“通常将房价落后于17个月左右”。

“Shelter inflation is still keeping official CPI numbers elevated. Once we see this dynamic turn down, it should give central banks the leeway to ease monetary policy further,” he noted.

“住房通货膨胀仍在保持官方CPI数字的提高。一旦我们看到这种动态的倒台，它应该给中央银行带来余地，以进一步缓解货币政策。”他说。

While some cyclical forces, such as commodity prices, might push inflation higher later in the year, Bittel emphasized that the peak is not imminent and that the Federal Reserve will likely retain enough flexibility to avoid stifling the ongoing economic rebound.

尽管某些周期性力量（例如商品价格）可能会在今年晚些时候推动通货膨胀率更高，但比特尔强调，峰值并不是即将到来的，美联储可能会保留足够的灵活性，以避免扼杀正在进行的经济反弹。

In discussing Bitcoin, Bittel highlighted the role of the business cycle in driving outsized price movements for the leading cryptocurrency.

在讨论比特币时，Bittel强调了商业周期在推动领先的加密货币推动价格变动中的作用。

“When the ISM Index barely hovered above 50 in 2013 and 2017, we saw Bitcoin rally by dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro picture abruptly topped out as soon as ISM and liquidity peaked, cutting short the cycle and capping Bitcoin's run at roughly an 8x move from its initial pivot out of recession,” he explained.

“当2013年和2017年ISM索引几乎不徘徊在50以上时，我们看到了数十个倍数的比特币集会。在2021年，宏观图片一旦ISM峰值突然出现，并且流动性达到顶峰，缩短了周期并将比特币的运行限制在大约8倍的转移范围内，从衰退中的最初的枢纽大致转移。”他解释说。

However, today's backdrop looks materially different. Bittel noted that “the ISM is just now moving above 50,” which contrasts with the late 2020–early 2021 surge that raced from the low 40s to the mid-60s almost in one breath.

但是，今天的背景看起来实质上不同。 Bittel指出，“ ISM刚刚移动到50岁以上”，这与2020年后期的2021年后期的激增形成鲜明对比，该激增几乎一口气从40年代到60年代中期。

“If we’re right about the weaker dollar and a pickup in global liquidity, Bitcoin's path could more closely resemble the elongated upturn of 2017 than the compressed momentum of 2021,” he added.

他补充说：“如果我们对全球流动性较弱的美元和收集量正确，那么比特币的道路可能与2021年压缩势头相比，比特币的道路更像2017年的拉长上涨。”

Although Bittel did not offer a precise price target for Bitcoin, he referenced the historical precedent of a 23x jump in 2017 once the cycle gained traction.

尽管Bittel没有为比特币提供精确的目标价格，但他提到了一旦周期获得了吸引力，2017年的历史先例。

“I’m not telling you Bitcoin is going 23x, but in every prior crypto run, we’ve seen persistent strength in the business cycle be the magic gift that keeps on giving,” he noted.

他指出：“我不是告诉你比特币要23倍，但是在先前的每一次加密货币中，我们都看到商业周期中的持久力量是不断捐赠的神奇礼物。”

While his caution was evident, Bittel expressed optimism that the foundation has been set for an extended upswing, reminding everyone that 20–30% drawdowns are to be expected, even during powerful rallies.

虽然他的谨慎是明显的，但比特尔对基金会的扩大兴趣表示乐观，提醒所有人，即使在强大的集会期间，也可以期待20％至30％的下降。

“Once you understand where the economy is going, you understand where assets are going. Liquidity, particularly from China, could become an even bigger driver for digital assets as 2025 progresses,” he said.

“一旦您了解经济的去向，您就会了解资产的去向。随着2025年的发展，流动性，特别是来自中国的流动性可能成为数字资产的更大驱动力。”他说。

Bittel reinforced the point, saying that “historically, the biggest surges in Bitcoin happened when the ISM is rising and we’re in macro summer.”

Bittel加强了这一点，他说：“从历史上看，比特币中最大的冲浪发生在ISM上升时，我们正处于宏观夏天。”

He also highlighted that any short-term pullbacks in Bitcoin should not be mistaken for macro regime shifts. The cyclical conditions, fueled by easier financial conditions, remain in place, though he reminded viewers to expect corrections and remain patient.

他还强调，比特币中的任何短期回调都不应误认为是宏观政权的变化。尽管他提醒观众期望纠正并保持耐心，但由于更容易的财务条件所推动的周期性条件仍然存在。

“It’s never a straight line, and it can feel like the end of the world in some weeks. Yet, given the parallels to 2017 and the ongoing slide in the dollar, I believe the runway for Bitcoin—and other risk assets—still appears relatively long,” said Bittel.

“这从来都不是一条直线，而且几周后感觉就像世界的尽头。然而，鉴于与2017年的相似之处以及持续的幻灯片，我相信比特币和其他风险资产的跑道似乎相对较长。” Bittel说。

While Bittel's presentation also covered broader market segments

虽然Bittel的演讲也涵盖了更广泛的市场细分市场