Bitcoin Macro Summer Is Coming

Bittel explained that macro “summer” is the dominant regime he sees unfolding throughout 2025, meaning growth momentum is picking up while inflation remains modest enough for central banks to avoid overtightening.

A Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI) has shared his perspective on the upcoming economic cycle and its potential implications for Bitcoin.

In a video titled “The Macro Outlook for 2025: BIG Moves Ahead,” Julien Bittel shared his analysis and offered insights into the factors that could be shaping the markets in the coming year.

According to Bittel, the dominant macro regime that he sees unfolding throughout 2025 is “macro summer.” This term refers to a period where growth momentum is picking up, while inflation remains low enough to allow central banks to avoid overtightening.

“The business cycle still chugs along. We’re seeing improvement in global manufacturing data and more countries shifting into expansion territory,” said Bittel.

He noted that while there may be slight fluctuations in some indicators, including pockets that may briefly resemble a slowdown, these are unlikely to mark the onset of a sustained growth deceleration and rising inflation, which would be characteristic of “macro fall.” Instead, any headwinds are expected to be short-lived, given an overall environment in which global financial conditions are loosening.

Bittel highlighted the decline in US bond yields and the recent weakness in the dollar as factors that will allow “more cowbell” from central banks. Additionally, China's bond yields have also collapsed, which he sees as a major signal that Beijing can provide additional liquidity injections without fearing excessive overheating.

“This combination, to me, feels like an echo of 2017, a year where a weaker dollar and lower interest rates contributed to an upswing in both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies,” said Bittel.

Turning to inflation, Bittel discussed why shelter and other service-related costs are such significant laggards. He observed that more than one-third of headline CPI is tied to housing, which “typically lags home prices by around 17 months.”

“Shelter inflation is still keeping official CPI numbers elevated. Once we see this dynamic turn down, it should give central banks the leeway to ease monetary policy further,” he noted.

While some cyclical forces, such as commodity prices, might push inflation higher later in the year, Bittel emphasized that the peak is not imminent and that the Federal Reserve will likely retain enough flexibility to avoid stifling the ongoing economic rebound.

In discussing Bitcoin, Bittel highlighted the role of the business cycle in driving outsized price movements for the leading cryptocurrency.

“When the ISM Index barely hovered above 50 in 2013 and 2017, we saw Bitcoin rally by dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro picture abruptly topped out as soon as ISM and liquidity peaked, cutting short the cycle and capping Bitcoin's run at roughly an 8x move from its initial pivot out of recession,” he explained.

However, today's backdrop looks materially different. Bittel noted that “the ISM is just now moving above 50,” which contrasts with the late 2020–early 2021 surge that raced from the low 40s to the mid-60s almost in one breath.

“If we’re right about the weaker dollar and a pickup in global liquidity, Bitcoin's path could more closely resemble the elongated upturn of 2017 than the compressed momentum of 2021,” he added.

Although Bittel did not offer a precise price target for Bitcoin, he referenced the historical precedent of a 23x jump in 2017 once the cycle gained traction.

“I’m not telling you Bitcoin is going 23x, but in every prior crypto run, we’ve seen persistent strength in the business cycle be the magic gift that keeps on giving,” he noted.

While his caution was evident, Bittel expressed optimism that the foundation has been set for an extended upswing, reminding everyone that 20–30% drawdowns are to be expected, even during powerful rallies.

“Once you understand where the economy is going, you understand where assets are going. Liquidity, particularly from China, could become an even bigger driver for digital assets as 2025 progresses,” he said.

Bittel reinforced the point, saying that “historically, the biggest surges in Bitcoin happened when the ISM is rising and we’re in macro summer.”

He also highlighted that any short-term pullbacks in Bitcoin should not be mistaken for macro regime shifts. The cyclical conditions, fueled by easier financial conditions, remain in place, though he reminded viewers to expect corrections and remain patient.

“It’s never a straight line, and it can feel like the end of the world in some weeks. Yet, given the parallels to 2017 and the ongoing slide in the dollar, I believe the runway for Bitcoin—and other risk assets—still appears relatively long,” said Bittel.

While Bittel's presentation also covered broader market segments