比特幣與黃金：是時候進行領導轉變了嗎？

根據富達全球宏觀宏觀總監Jurrien Timmer的說法，比特幣和黃金之間的長期動態正在發生轉移 - 而且數字可能表明正在進行Baton-Pass。

The long-standing dynamic between Bitcoin and gold is shifting once again, and the numbers may suggest a baton-pass is underway, according to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity.

Fidelity全球宏觀局長Jurrien Timmer表示，比特幣和黃金之間的長期動態正在再次發生變化，而且數字可能表明正在進行Baton-Pass。

In a recent tweet, Timmer highlighted that Bitcoin and gold have been moving in opposing cycles, particularly when measured by their Sharpe Ratios, a common metric for evaluating risk-adjusted returns. While Bitcoin's ratio has slipped to -0.40 amid recent volatility, gold's performance seems to be stabilizing, with its Sharpe Ratio increasing to 1.33.

在最近的一條推文中，蒂默（Timmer）強調，比特幣和黃金一直在相反的周期中移動，尤其是在用夏普比率衡量時，這是評估風險調整後的回報的常見指標。儘管最近波動率的波動率在比特幣的比率下降到-0.40，但Gold的性能似乎正在穩定，其Sharpe比率增加到1.33。

"From the looks of it, it may well be Bitcoin's turn to take the lead," Timmer stated. "Perhaps we are due for a baton-pass from gold to Bitcoin."

蒂默說：“從外觀上看，可能輪到比特幣了。” “也許我們應該從黃金到比特幣的指揮棒。”

The Sharpe Ratio Trend: BTC Poised to Rebound?

Sharpe比率趨勢：BTC準備反彈？

The chart shared in Timmer's post showcases the alternating strength of gold and Bitcoin over time. Each asset has had its moments in the spotlight, and the Sharpe Ratio has provided valuable insights. Currently:

隨著時間的流逝，在蒂默（Timmer）帖子中分享的圖表展示了黃金和比特幣的交替強度。每個資產都有其焦點，夏普比率提供了寶貴的見解。現在：

* Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio stands at -0.40, indicating a period of heightened volatility and weaker risk-adjusted returns.

*比特幣的Sharpe比率為-0.40，表明波動率高和風險調整後的回報較弱。

* Gold's Sharpe Ratio has risen to 1.33, suggesting better risk-adjusted returns for the yellow metal, though its ratio has been more stable in recent periods.

* Gold的Sharpe比率已上升到1.33，表明黃金金屬的風險調整後更好，儘管其比率在最近時期更加穩定。

This shift could indicate a potential rotation back into BTC, especially if risk appetite returns, and capital shifts away from defensive assets like gold.

這種轉變可能表明潛在的旋轉回到BTC，尤其是在風險胃口回報的情況下，資本從金牌等防禦性資產轉移。

A Macro Perspective on Digital and Traditional Safe Havens

關於數字和傳統避風港的宏觀觀點

As the head of macro strategy at Fidelity, Timmer often views digital assets within a broader economic context. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin is becoming a credible alternative store of value—complementary, but also increasingly competitive with gold. Both serve as hedges against inflation and economic uncertainty, but their cycles and correlations differ significantly.

作為富達宏觀戰略的負責人，蒂默經常在更廣泛的經濟背景下觀看數字資產。他的分析表明，比特幣正在成為可靠的價值替代存儲，但同時也越來越多地與黃金競爭。兩者都充當抵抗通貨膨脹和經濟不確定性的樹籬，但它們的周期和相關性差異很大。

With the recent divergence in their Sharpe Ratios, Timmer's analysis may be hinting at a critical inflection point. If history has a tendency to repeat itself, Bitcoin's next move could be a decisive one, potentially leading to a substantial price rally.

隨著近期尖銳比率的分歧，蒂默的分析可能暗示著一個關鍵的拐點。如果歷史傾向於重演，那麼比特幣的下一步行動可能是決定性的，有可能導致大量價格集會。

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