比特币与黄金：是时候进行领导转变了吗？

根据富达全球宏观宏观总监Jurrien Timmer的说法，比特币和黄金之间的长期动态正在发生转移 - 而且数字可能表明正在进行Baton-Pass。

The long-standing dynamic between Bitcoin and gold is shifting once again, and the numbers may suggest a baton-pass is underway, according to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity.

Fidelity全球宏观局长Jurrien Timmer表示，比特币和黄金之间的长期动态正在再次发生变化，而且数字可能表明正在进行Baton-Pass。

In a recent tweet, Timmer highlighted that Bitcoin and gold have been moving in opposing cycles, particularly when measured by their Sharpe Ratios, a common metric for evaluating risk-adjusted returns. While Bitcoin's ratio has slipped to -0.40 amid recent volatility, gold's performance seems to be stabilizing, with its Sharpe Ratio increasing to 1.33.

在最近的一条推文中，蒂默（Timmer）强调，比特币和黄金一直在相反的周期中移动，尤其是在用夏普比率衡量时，这是评估风险调整后的回报的常见指标。尽管最近波动率的波动率在比特币的比率下降到-0.40，但Gold的性能似乎正在稳定，其Sharpe比率增加到1.33。

"From the looks of it, it may well be Bitcoin's turn to take the lead," Timmer stated. "Perhaps we are due for a baton-pass from gold to Bitcoin."

蒂默说：“从外观上看，可能轮到比特币了。” “也许我们应该从黄金到比特币的指挥棒。”

The Sharpe Ratio Trend: BTC Poised to Rebound?

Sharpe比率趋势：BTC准备反弹？

The chart shared in Timmer's post showcases the alternating strength of gold and Bitcoin over time. Each asset has had its moments in the spotlight, and the Sharpe Ratio has provided valuable insights. Currently:

随着时间的流逝，在蒂默（Timmer）帖子中分享的图表展示了黄金和比特币的交替强度。每个资产都有其焦点，夏普比率提供了宝贵的见解。现在：

* Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio stands at -0.40, indicating a period of heightened volatility and weaker risk-adjusted returns.

*比特币的Sharpe比率为-0.40，表明波动率高和风险调整后的回报较弱。

* Gold's Sharpe Ratio has risen to 1.33, suggesting better risk-adjusted returns for the yellow metal, though its ratio has been more stable in recent periods.

* Gold的Sharpe比率已上升到1.33，表明黄金金属的风险调整后更好，尽管其比率在最近时期更加稳定。

This shift could indicate a potential rotation back into BTC, especially if risk appetite returns, and capital shifts away from defensive assets like gold.

这种转变可能表明潜在的旋转回到BTC，尤其是在风险胃口回报的情况下，资本从金牌等防御性资产转移。

A Macro Perspective on Digital and Traditional Safe Havens

关于数字和传统避风港的宏观观点

As the head of macro strategy at Fidelity, Timmer often views digital assets within a broader economic context. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin is becoming a credible alternative store of value—complementary, but also increasingly competitive with gold. Both serve as hedges against inflation and economic uncertainty, but their cycles and correlations differ significantly.

作为富达宏观战略的负责人，蒂默经常在更广泛的经济背景下观看数字资产。他的分析表明，比特币正在成为可靠的价值替代存储，但同时也越来越多地与黄金竞争。两者都充当抵抗通货膨胀和经济不确定性的树篱，但它们的周期和相关性差异很大。

With the recent divergence in their Sharpe Ratios, Timmer's analysis may be hinting at a critical inflection point. If history has a tendency to repeat itself, Bitcoin's next move could be a decisive one, potentially leading to a substantial price rally.

随着近期尖锐比率的分歧，蒂默的分析可能暗示着一个关键的拐点。如果历史倾向于重演，那么比特币的下一步行动可能是决定性的，有可能导致大量价格集会。

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