比特幣沒有爆炸性的開始

比特幣在2025年初沒有爆炸性的開始。高峰超過100,000美元，價格急劇下降

Author: BITCOIN MAGAZINE PRO

作者：比特幣雜誌專業

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

編譯者：蒂姆，潘努斯

Bitcoin did not have the explosive start many expected in early 2025. After peaking above $100,000, the price fell sharply, leaving investors and analysts questioning where in the halving cycle Bitcoin is currently. As we delve deeper, we will be able to penetrate the market noise and analyze a series of key on-chain indicators and macroeconomic signals to determine whether the Bitcoin bull market is still sustainable, or is it about to face a deeper correction?

比特幣在2025年初沒有預期的爆炸性開始。在達到100,000美元以上的高峰之後，價格急劇下跌，使投資者和分析師質疑目前在減半週期的比特幣中的位置。隨著我們的深入研究，我們將能夠滲透到市場噪音中，並分析一系列關鍵的鍊鍊指標和宏觀經濟信號，以確定比特幣牛市是否仍然可持續，還是要面對更深入的更正？

Healthy correction or the end of the bull market?

健康的更正還是牛市的結束？

An ideal entry point is the MVRV-Z indicator. This long-standing valuation indicator measures the status of assets by comparing the market value of cryptocurrencies to their realized value. When the value fell from a peak of 3.36 to around 1.43, the price of Bitcoin fell from a high of nearly $100,000 to a staged low of $75,000. Intuitively, such a 30% price correction is quite drastic.

理想的切入點是MVRV-Z指示器。這個長期存在的估值指標通過將加密貨幣的市場價值與其實現價值進行比較來衡量資產的狀態。當價值從3.36的峰值下降到1.43左右時，比特幣的價格從近100,000美元下降到上演的低點75,000美元。從直覺上講，這樣的30％的價格校正非常劇烈。

According to the historical data, the current MVRV-Z level tends to mark local bottoms rather than tops. We can observe that in the previous cycles, such as 2017 and 2021, when the indicator pulled back to similar levels during the bull market, it usually bottomed out. In essence, while this decline has shaken investor confidence, it is essentially consistent with the historical corrections in bull cycles.

根據歷史數據，當前的MVRV-Z級別傾向於標記局部底部而不是頂部。我們可以觀察到，在以前的周期中，例如2017年和2021年，當指標在牛市期間恢復到相似的水平時，通常會觸底。從本質上講，儘管這種下降使投資者的信心動搖了，但它與牛週期的歷史修正基本上是一致的。

Follow the smart money

遵循聰明的錢

Another key indicator is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple. This metric measures the speed of on-chain transfers by weighting the time Bitcoin is held before being traded. When the multiple soars, it usually means that experienced holders are taking profits; if it remains low for a long time, it may indicate that the market is in an accumulation phase.

另一個關鍵指標是銷毀的價值天數（VDD）倍數。該度量標准通過加權比特幣在交易前保持時間幣的速度來衡量鏈上轉移的速度。當多個飆升時，通常意味著經驗豐富的持有人正在獲利。如果很長一段時間保持較低，則可能表明市場處於累積階段。

As of the latest data, the indicator is still in the "green zone", with levels similar to the late bear market or early recovery stages. As BTC prices have reversed sharply from above $100,000, we may be witnessing the end of the profit-taking wave, while some long-term accumulation behavior has become more apparent, indicating that participants are positioning themselves for future price increases.

截至最新數據，該指標仍在“綠色區域”中，其水平類似於晚期熊市或早期恢復階段。隨著BTC價格從超過100,000美元的價格急劇逆轉，我們可能目睹了利潤浪潮的結束，而某些長期積累行為變得越來越明顯，這表明參與者正在為未來的價格上漲而定位。

One of the most insightful on-chain indicators is the Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart, which breaks down realized capital by coin age, isolating different groups such as new entrants (holding time < 1 month) and medium-term holders (1-2 years) to observe the capital migration path. The red band (new entrants) rose sharply near the historical high of $106,000, indicating that a large amount of panic buying driven by FOMO sentiment occurred at the top of the market at that time. Since then, the activity of this group has cooled significantly, falling back to a level consistent with the early to mid-stage bull market.

最有見地的鍊鍊指標之一是比特幣循環資本流程圖，該圖表分解了硬幣年齡實現的資本，隔離了不同的群體，例如新進入者（持有時間<1個月）和中期持有人（1-2年），以觀察資本遷移路徑。紅色樂隊（新參賽者）在歷史高點附近急劇上升，這表明當時的市場頂部發生了大量的恐慌購買。從那時起，該小組的活動已大大冷卻，降至與早期牛市早期至中期牛市一致的水平。

On the contrary, the group that has held tokens for 1-2 years (usually accumulators with macro insights) has resumed the trend of increasing holdings. This inverse correlation reveals the core logic of market operation: when long-term holders accumulate chips at the bottom, new investors are often experiencing panic selling or choosing to leave. This pattern of capital flow, which increases and decreases, is highly consistent with the "accumulation-distribution" law presented in the complete bull market cycle from 2020 to 2021, reproducing the typical characteristics of the historical cycle.

相反，擁有令牌已有1 - 2年的小組（通常具有宏觀見解）恢復了持有量增加的趨勢。這種反相關性揭示了市場運營的核心邏輯：當長期持有人在底部積累芯片時，新投資者經常會經歷恐慌銷售或選擇離開。這種增加和減少的資本流程模式與從2020年至2021年完整的牛市市場週期中提出的“累積分佈”定律一致，從而再現了歷史週期的典型特徵。

What stage are we at now?

我們現在是什麼階段？

From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:

從宏觀的角度來看，我們將比特幣市場週期分為三個關鍵階段：

The bear markets in 2015 and 2018 lasted about 13-14 months, respectively. Our most recent bear market cycle also lasted 14 months. The market recovery phase in historical cycles generally takes 23 to 26 months, and we are currently within this typical recovery time window.

2015年和2018年的熊市分別持續了大約13-14個月。我們最近的熊市週期也持續了14個月。歷史週期中的市場恢復階段通常需要23到26個月，而我們目前正處於這個典型的恢復時間窗口中。

However, the performance of this bull phase is somewhat abnormal. Bitcoin did not immediately surge after breaking through the historical high, but instead experienced a pullback. This may mean that the market is building a higher low before entering a steeper upward channel in the exponential growth phase. If we use the average length of the 9-month and 11-month exponential phases in the past cycles as a reference, assuming that the bull market can continue, we expect the potential top of this cycle to appear around September 2025.

但是，這個牛階段的表現有些異常。在突破歷史高位後，比特幣並沒有立即激增，而是經歷了回調。這可能意味著在指數增長階段進入更陡峭的向上渠道之前，市場正在建立更高的低點。如果我們使用過去週期的9個月和11個月的指數階段的平均長度作為參考，假設牛市可以繼續下去，那麼我們預計該週期的潛在頂部將在2025年9月左右出現。

Macro risks

宏風險

Despite the encouraging on-chain data, macro headwinds remain. Analysis of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin correlation charts shows that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the U.S. stock market. Continued weakness in traditional markets could impact Bitcoin’s ability to rebound in the short term as concerns grow over a potential global recession.

儘管有令人鼓舞的鍊鍊數據，但仍然受到巨大的逆風。對標準普爾500指數和比特幣相關圖表的分析表明，比特幣仍與美國股票市場高度相關。傳統市場的持續疲軟可能會影響比特幣在短期內反彈的能力，因為由於潛在的全球衰退而感到擔憂。

in conclusion

綜上所述

As we have seen in our analysis,

正如我們在分析中看到的那樣