比特币没有爆炸性的开始

比特币在2025年初没有爆炸性的开始。高峰超过100,000美元，价格急剧下降

Author: BITCOIN MAGAZINE PRO

作者：比特币杂志专业

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

编译者：蒂姆，潘努斯

Bitcoin did not have the explosive start many expected in early 2025. After peaking above $100,000, the price fell sharply, leaving investors and analysts questioning where in the halving cycle Bitcoin is currently. As we delve deeper, we will be able to penetrate the market noise and analyze a series of key on-chain indicators and macroeconomic signals to determine whether the Bitcoin bull market is still sustainable, or is it about to face a deeper correction?

比特币在2025年初没有预期的爆炸性开始。在达到100,000美元以上的高峰之后，价格急剧下跌，使投资者和分析师质疑目前在减半周期的比特币中的位置。随着我们的深入研究，我们将能够渗透到市场噪音中，并分析一系列关键的链链指标和宏观经济信号，以确定比特币牛市是否仍然可持续，还是要面对更深入的更正？

Healthy correction or the end of the bull market?

健康的更正还是牛市的结束？

An ideal entry point is the MVRV-Z indicator. This long-standing valuation indicator measures the status of assets by comparing the market value of cryptocurrencies to their realized value. When the value fell from a peak of 3.36 to around 1.43, the price of Bitcoin fell from a high of nearly $100,000 to a staged low of $75,000. Intuitively, such a 30% price correction is quite drastic.

理想的切入点是MVRV-Z指示器。这个长期存在的估值指标通过将加密货币的市场价值与其实现价值进行比较来衡量资产的状态。当价值从3.36的峰值下降到1.43左右时，比特币的价格从近100,000美元下降到上演的低点75,000美元。从直觉上讲，这样的30％的价格校正非常剧烈。

According to the historical data, the current MVRV-Z level tends to mark local bottoms rather than tops. We can observe that in the previous cycles, such as 2017 and 2021, when the indicator pulled back to similar levels during the bull market, it usually bottomed out. In essence, while this decline has shaken investor confidence, it is essentially consistent with the historical corrections in bull cycles.

根据历史数据，当前的MVRV-Z级别倾向于标记局部底部而不是顶部。我们可以观察到，在以前的周期中，例如2017年和2021年，当指标在牛市期间恢复到相似的水平时，通常会触底。从本质上讲，尽管这种下降使投资者的信心动摇了，但它与牛周期的历史修正基本上是一致的。

Follow the smart money

遵循聪明的钱

Another key indicator is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple. This metric measures the speed of on-chain transfers by weighting the time Bitcoin is held before being traded. When the multiple soars, it usually means that experienced holders are taking profits; if it remains low for a long time, it may indicate that the market is in an accumulation phase.

另一个关键指标是销毁的价值天数（VDD）倍数。该度量标准通过加权比特币在交易前保持时间币的速度来衡量链上转移的速度。当多个飙升时，通常意味着经验丰富的持有人正在获利。如果很长一段时间保持较低，则可能表明市场处于累积阶段。

As of the latest data, the indicator is still in the "green zone", with levels similar to the late bear market or early recovery stages. As BTC prices have reversed sharply from above $100,000, we may be witnessing the end of the profit-taking wave, while some long-term accumulation behavior has become more apparent, indicating that participants are positioning themselves for future price increases.

截至最新数据，该指标仍在“绿色区域”中，其水平类似于晚期熊市或早期恢复阶段。随着BTC价格从超过100,000美元的价格急剧逆转，我们可能目睹了利润浪潮的结束，而某些长期积累行为变得越来越明显，这表明参与者正在为未来的价格上涨而定位。

One of the most insightful on-chain indicators is the Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart, which breaks down realized capital by coin age, isolating different groups such as new entrants (holding time < 1 month) and medium-term holders (1-2 years) to observe the capital migration path. The red band (new entrants) rose sharply near the historical high of $106,000, indicating that a large amount of panic buying driven by FOMO sentiment occurred at the top of the market at that time. Since then, the activity of this group has cooled significantly, falling back to a level consistent with the early to mid-stage bull market.

最有见地的链链指标之一是比特币循环资本流程图，该图表分解了硬币年龄实现的资本，隔离了不同的群体，例如新进入者（持有时间<1个月）和中期持有人（1-2年），以观察资本迁移路径。红色乐队（新参赛者）在历史高点附近急剧上升，这表明当时的市场顶部发生了大量的恐慌购买。从那时起，该小组的活动已大大冷却，降至与早期牛市早期至中期牛市一致的水平。

On the contrary, the group that has held tokens for 1-2 years (usually accumulators with macro insights) has resumed the trend of increasing holdings. This inverse correlation reveals the core logic of market operation: when long-term holders accumulate chips at the bottom, new investors are often experiencing panic selling or choosing to leave. This pattern of capital flow, which increases and decreases, is highly consistent with the "accumulation-distribution" law presented in the complete bull market cycle from 2020 to 2021, reproducing the typical characteristics of the historical cycle.

相反，拥有令牌已有1 - 2年的小组（通常具有宏观见解）恢复了持有量增加的趋势。这种反相关性揭示了市场运营的核心逻辑：当长期持有人在底部积累芯片时，新投资者经常会经历恐慌销售或选择离开。这种增加和减少的资本流程模式与从2020年至2021年完整的牛市市场周期中提出的“累积分布”定律一致，从而再现了历史周期的典型特征。

What stage are we at now?

我们现在是什么阶段？

From a macro perspective, we divide the Bitcoin market cycle into three key stages:

从宏观的角度来看，我们将比特币市场周期分为三个关键阶段：

The bear markets in 2015 and 2018 lasted about 13-14 months, respectively. Our most recent bear market cycle also lasted 14 months. The market recovery phase in historical cycles generally takes 23 to 26 months, and we are currently within this typical recovery time window.

2015年和2018年的熊市分别持续了大约13-14个月。我们最近的熊市周期也持续了14个月。历史周期中的市场恢复阶段通常需要23到26个月，而我们目前正处于这个典型的恢复时间窗口中。

However, the performance of this bull phase is somewhat abnormal. Bitcoin did not immediately surge after breaking through the historical high, but instead experienced a pullback. This may mean that the market is building a higher low before entering a steeper upward channel in the exponential growth phase. If we use the average length of the 9-month and 11-month exponential phases in the past cycles as a reference, assuming that the bull market can continue, we expect the potential top of this cycle to appear around September 2025.

但是，这个牛阶段的表现有些异常。在突破历史高位后，比特币并没有立即激增，而是经历了回调。这可能意味着在指数增长阶段进入更陡峭的向上渠道之前，市场正在建立更高的低点。如果我们使用过去周期的9个月和11个月的指数阶段的平均长度作为参考，假设牛市可以继续下去，那么我们预计该周期的潜在顶部将在2025年9月左右出现。

Macro risks

宏风险

Despite the encouraging on-chain data, macro headwinds remain. Analysis of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin correlation charts shows that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with the U.S. stock market. Continued weakness in traditional markets could impact Bitcoin’s ability to rebound in the short term as concerns grow over a potential global recession.

尽管有令人鼓舞的链链数据，但仍然受到巨大的逆风。对标准普尔500指数和比特币相关图表的分析表明，比特币仍与美国股票市场高度相关。传统市场的持续疲软可能会影响比特币在短期内反弹的能力，因为由于潜在的全球衰退而感到担忧。

in conclusion

综上所述

As we have seen in our analysis,

正如我们在分析中看到的那样