如果歷史重複

根據阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler）的說法，比特幣通往其下一個歷史最高高（ATH）的道路可能比許多人想像的要近。

As the world's leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) has scaled new all-time highs throughout its existence, and according to Axel Adler Jr., an independent crypto analyst, we might be closer to the next ATH than many anticipate.

作為全球領先的加密貨幣，比特幣（BTC）在整個生存過程中都擴大了新的歷史最高水平，根據獨立加密分析師Axel Adler Jr.的說法，我們可能更接近下一個ATH。

Examining historical recovery patterns in Bitcoin's post-ATH cycles, Adler notes that it usually takes about 211 days for Bitcoin to break past its previous ATH after reaching a cycle top.

阿德勒（Adler）檢查比特幣後的歷史恢復模式，指出，比特幣達到週期頂部後，比特幣通常需要211天。

However, there's a variance in past cycles, with the shortest recovery taking 158 days and the longest taking 278 days, as seen in the chart below.

但是，過去的周期有差異，最短的恢復時間為158天，並且花費了278天，如下圖所示。

"Out of the last 4 cycles, 3 of them saw the new all-time high around mid-July," notes Adler.

阿德勒指出：“在過去的4個週期中，其中3個週期在7月中旬左右看到了新的歷史最高高。”

From the last all-time high, which occurred around late 2024, we're currently at 141 days, and if we average out the past cycles, a similar recovery would put the new high around mid-July 2025 — assuming the historical average plays out again.

從2024年末左右發生的最後一個歷史高潮起，我們目前是141天，如果我們平均過去的周期，類似的恢復將使新的高高在2025年7月中旬左右 - 假設歷史平均水平再次發揮。

The CryptoQuant chart below shows each cycle with blue lines indicating "days since last ATH." This pattern is overlaid on Bitcoin's log growth and displaying halving events.

下面的加密圖表顯示了每個週期，藍線表示“自上次ATH以來的天數”。這種模式被覆蓋在比特幣的對數增長和顯示減半事件上。

"Now, these are just averages, and I personally believe that the next ATH could be reached even sooner than that," concludes Adler.

阿德勒總結說：“現在，這些只是平均值，我個人認為，下一個ATH可以比這更快地到達。”

The implication is that some momentum might already be building, and with the recent Bitcoin halving now behind us, the macro and supply-side environment could accelerate the timeline.

這意味著可能已經建立了一些勢頭，而最近的比特幣現在在我們身後減半，宏觀和供應端環境可能會加速時間表。