如果历史重复

根据阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler）的说法，比特币通往其下一个历史最高高（ATH）的道路可能比许多人想象的要近。

As the world's leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) has scaled new all-time highs throughout its existence, and according to Axel Adler Jr., an independent crypto analyst, we might be closer to the next ATH than many anticipate.

作为全球领先的加密货币，比特币（BTC）在整个生存过程中都扩大了新的历史最高水平，根据独立加密分析师Axel Adler Jr.的说法，我们可能更接近下一个ATH。

Examining historical recovery patterns in Bitcoin's post-ATH cycles, Adler notes that it usually takes about 211 days for Bitcoin to break past its previous ATH after reaching a cycle top.

阿德勒（Adler）检查比特币后的历史恢复模式，指出，比特币达到周期顶部后，比特币通常需要211天。

However, there's a variance in past cycles, with the shortest recovery taking 158 days and the longest taking 278 days, as seen in the chart below.

但是，过去的周期有差异，最短的恢复时间为158天，并且花费了278天，如下图所示。

"Out of the last 4 cycles, 3 of them saw the new all-time high around mid-July," notes Adler.

阿德勒指出：“在过去的4个周期中，其中3个周期在7月中旬左右看到了新的历史最高高。”

From the last all-time high, which occurred around late 2024, we're currently at 141 days, and if we average out the past cycles, a similar recovery would put the new high around mid-July 2025 — assuming the historical average plays out again.

从2024年末左右发生的最后一个历史高潮起，我们目前是141天，如果我们平均过去的周期，类似的恢复将使新的高高在2025年7月中旬左右 - 假设历史平均水平再次发挥。

The CryptoQuant chart below shows each cycle with blue lines indicating "days since last ATH." This pattern is overlaid on Bitcoin's log growth and displaying halving events.

下面的加密图表显示了每个周期，蓝线表示“自上次ATH以来的天数”。这种模式被覆盖在比特币的对数增长和显示减半事件上。

"Now, these are just averages, and I personally believe that the next ATH could be reached even sooner than that," concludes Adler.

阿德勒总结说：“现在，这些只是平均值，我个人认为，下一个ATH可以比这更快地到达。”

The implication is that some momentum might already be building, and with the recent Bitcoin halving now behind us, the macro and supply-side environment could accelerate the timeline.

这意味着可能已经建立了一些势头，而最近的比特币现在在我们身后减半，宏观和供应端环境可能会加速时间表。