As the world's leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) has scaled new all-time highs throughout its existence, and according to Axel Adler Jr., an independent crypto analyst, we might be closer to the next ATH than many anticipate.
Examining historical recovery patterns in Bitcoin's post-ATH cycles, Adler notes that it usually takes about 211 days for Bitcoin to break past its previous ATH after reaching a cycle top.
However, there's a variance in past cycles, with the shortest recovery taking 158 days and the longest taking 278 days, as seen in the chart below.
"Out of the last 4 cycles, 3 of them saw the new all-time high around mid-July," notes Adler.
From the last all-time high, which occurred around late 2024, we're currently at 141 days, and if we average out the past cycles, a similar recovery would put the new high around mid-July 2025 — assuming the historical average plays out again.
The CryptoQuant chart below shows each cycle with blue lines indicating "days since last ATH." This pattern is overlaid on Bitcoin's log growth and displaying halving events.
"Now, these are just averages, and I personally believe that the next ATH could be reached even sooner than that," concludes Adler.
The implication is that some momentum might already be building, and with the recent Bitcoin halving now behind us, the macro and supply-side environment could accelerate the timeline.
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