由於美國宏觀經濟逆風仍然是一個挑戰

自5月10日以來，比特幣（BTC）一直在努力打破105,000美元，導致交易者質疑看漲的勢頭是否消失了。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has struggled to break above $105,000 since May 10, leading some traders to question whether the bullish momentum has stalled.

自5月10日以來，比特幣（BTC）的價格一直在努力打破105,000美元，導致一些交易者質疑看漲的勢頭是否停滯不前。

After hitting a high of $104,800 on May 14, Bitcoin dropped to as low as $101,800 on May 15, testing the crucial $100,000 support level.

在5月14日達到104,800美元的高價後，比特幣在5月15日下降到101,800美元，測試了至關重要的100,000美元支持水平。

The cryptocurrency managed to rebound and was trading above $104,000 at the time of writing, but demand for leveraged long positions has dropped sharply, as evidenced by the decline in the Bitcoin futures premium.

加密貨幣在撰寫本文時設法反彈，交易超過104,000美元，但對長期利用的需求急劇下降，這證明了比特幣期貨期貨保費的下降。

This premium, which measures the difference in price between futures contracts and the spot market, typically rises during periods of bullish enthusiasm, encouraging traders to open leveraged positions.

這種溢價衡量了期貨合約與現貨市場之間價格差異，通常在看漲的熱情時期上升，鼓勵商人開放槓桿頭寸。

However, the annualized premium on Bitcoin futures peaked at 7% on May 14, before falling to 5%, which is closer to the neutral-to-bearish threshold and in line with the level seen four weeks ago, when BTC was trading around $84,500.

但是，比特幣期貨的年度溢價在5月14日達到7％的峰值，然後下跌至5％，這更接近中性到偏見​​的閾值，並且與四周前BTC交易約84,500美元的水平相符。

This decrease in demand for leveraged bullish positions might be linked to broader macroeconomic uncertainty, as Bitcoin's price has been closely following movements in the stock market.

對槓桿看漲立場的需求減少可能與更廣泛的宏觀經濟不確定性有關，因為比特幣的價格在股票市場上的變化之後一直緊密。

The S&P 500 futures reversed early weakness on May 15, coinciding with Bitcoin's rebound from $101,800 to $104,000. Investors appear to be more confident that the U.S. Treasury will be forced to inject liquidity after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that "supply shocks" could keep interest rates higher than anticipated for longer.

標準普爾500指貨期貨在5月15日扭轉了早期弱點，與比特幣的反彈從101,800美元相吻合至104,000美元。在美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）警告說，“供應衝擊”可以使利率更高，投資者似乎更有信心，美國財政部將被迫注入流動性。

Signs of economic weakness have also emerged. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that April's Producer Price Index fell 0.5% from the previous month, while economists surveyed by FactSet had expected an increase of 0.2%.

經濟無力的跡像也出現了。美國勞工統計局報導說，四月的生產商價格指數比上個月下降了0.5％，而按FACTSET進行調查的經濟學家預計會增加0.2％。

According to Reuters, investors' limited risk appetite is further influenced by ongoing global trade tensions, with the U.S.–China tariff agreement serving as a temporary solution.

據路透社報導，投資者有限的風險食慾受到持續的全球貿易緊張局勢的進一步影響，美國 - 中國關稅協議是臨時解決方案。

Demand for fixed income has risen, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury dropping to 4.45% after reaching 4.55% on May 14, reversing the previous week's trend.

固定收入的需求增長了，在5月14日達到4.55％的美國財政部10年期間的收益率下降到4.45％，從而推翻了上週的趨勢。

Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform better when government bond yields are rising, as this signals reduced confidence in the Treasury's ability to manage its debt.

從歷史上看，當政府債券收益率上升時，比特幣傾向於表現更好，因為這標誌著對財政部管理債務的能力的信心降低了。

Bitcoin's rally to $105,000 depends on macroeconomic trendsTo gauge whether traders are simply avoiding leverage or actively betting on a price decline, it is useful to examine Bitcoin options demand. Typically, periods of bearish sentiment push the BTC delta skew indicator above the neutral 6% threshold.

比特幣的集會至$ 105,000取決於宏觀經濟的Trendsto量規，交易者是否只是避免槓桿作用或積極下注在價格下跌中，檢查比特幣期權需求很有用。通常，看國情緒的時期將BTC三角洲偏斜指示器推高了中性6％的閾值。

Contrary to expectations, Bitcoin put (sell) options have been trading at a discount compared to call (buy) options, signaling strong confidence in the $100,000 support level. However, the optimism seen on May 14 has faded, with the indicator now at a neutral -4%.

與期望相反，比特幣放置（賣出）期權與呼叫（買入）期權相比，已經以折扣價進行交易，這表明對100,000美元的支持水平有強烈的信心。但是，5月14日看到的樂觀情緒已經消失，現在指標為中性-4％。

Since Bitcoin's price has closely mirrored the U.S. stock market, the chances of breaking above $105,000 hinge heavily on macroeconomic developments, such as trends in the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet and recession risks. Notably, Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500 rarely persists for more than two months.

由於比特幣的價格與美國股票市場密切相映成趣，因此在宏觀經濟發展方面大量鉸鏈超過105,000美元的機會，例如美國美聯儲資產負債表和衰退風險的趨勢。值得注意的是，比特幣與標準普爾500指數的高度相關性很少持續兩個月以上。

Net inflows of $320 million into U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on May 14 indicate ongoing institutional demand. This suggests that investors are gradually shifting their perception of Bitcoin from a risk-on asset to a non-correlated instrument, which might decrease the likelihood of sharp price corrections, even without strong leveraged bullish positions.

5月14日，美國比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）淨流入3.2億美元，表明持續的機構需求。這表明投資者正在逐步將對比特幣的看法從風險資產轉移到非相關的工具，這可能會降低價格較高的糾正的可能性，即使沒有強大的槓桿作用。