由于美国宏观经济逆风仍然是一个挑战

自5月10日以来，比特币（BTC）一直在努力打破105,000美元，导致交易者质疑看涨的势头是否消失了。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has struggled to break above $105,000 since May 10, leading some traders to question whether the bullish momentum has stalled.

自5月10日以来，比特币（BTC）的价格一直在努力打破105,000美元，导致一些交易者质疑看涨的势头是否停滞不前。

After hitting a high of $104,800 on May 14, Bitcoin dropped to as low as $101,800 on May 15, testing the crucial $100,000 support level.

在5月14日达到104,800美元的高价后，比特币在5月15日下降到101,800美元，测试了至关重要的100,000美元支持水平。

The cryptocurrency managed to rebound and was trading above $104,000 at the time of writing, but demand for leveraged long positions has dropped sharply, as evidenced by the decline in the Bitcoin futures premium.

加密货币在撰写本文时设法反弹，交易超过104,000美元，但对长期利用的需求急剧下降，这证明了比特币期货期货保费的下降。

This premium, which measures the difference in price between futures contracts and the spot market, typically rises during periods of bullish enthusiasm, encouraging traders to open leveraged positions.

这种溢价衡量了期货合约与现货市场之间价格差异，通常在看涨的热情时期上升，鼓励商人开放杠杆头寸。

However, the annualized premium on Bitcoin futures peaked at 7% on May 14, before falling to 5%, which is closer to the neutral-to-bearish threshold and in line with the level seen four weeks ago, when BTC was trading around $84,500.

但是，比特币期货的年度溢价在5月14日达到7％的峰值，然后下跌至5％，这更接近中性到偏见​​的阈值，并且与四周前BTC交易约84,500美元的水平相符。

This decrease in demand for leveraged bullish positions might be linked to broader macroeconomic uncertainty, as Bitcoin's price has been closely following movements in the stock market.

对杠杆看涨立场的需求减少可能与更广泛的宏观经济不确定性有关，因为比特币的价格在股票市场上的变化之后一直紧密。

The S&P 500 futures reversed early weakness on May 15, coinciding with Bitcoin's rebound from $101,800 to $104,000. Investors appear to be more confident that the U.S. Treasury will be forced to inject liquidity after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that "supply shocks" could keep interest rates higher than anticipated for longer.

标准普尔500指货期货在5月15日扭转了早期弱点，与比特币的反弹从101,800美元相吻合至104,000美元。在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）警告说，“供应冲击”可以使利率更高，投资者似乎更有信心，美国财政部将被迫注入流动性。

Signs of economic weakness have also emerged. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that April's Producer Price Index fell 0.5% from the previous month, while economists surveyed by FactSet had expected an increase of 0.2%.

经济无力的迹象也出现了。美国劳工统计局报道说，四月的生产商价格指数比上个月下降了0.5％，而按FACTSET进行调查的经济学家预计会增加0.2％。

According to Reuters, investors' limited risk appetite is further influenced by ongoing global trade tensions, with the U.S.–China tariff agreement serving as a temporary solution.

据路透社报道，投资者有限的风险食欲受到持续的全球贸易紧张局势的进一步影响，美国 - 中国关税协议是临时解决方案。

Demand for fixed income has risen, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury dropping to 4.45% after reaching 4.55% on May 14, reversing the previous week's trend.

固定收入的需求增长了，在5月14日达到4.55％的美国财政部10年期间的收益率下降到4.45％，从而推翻了上周的趋势。

Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform better when government bond yields are rising, as this signals reduced confidence in the Treasury's ability to manage its debt.

从历史上看，当政府债券收益率上升时，比特币倾向于表现更好，因为这标志着对财政部管理债务的能力的信心降低了。

Bitcoin's rally to $105,000 depends on macroeconomic trendsTo gauge whether traders are simply avoiding leverage or actively betting on a price decline, it is useful to examine Bitcoin options demand. Typically, periods of bearish sentiment push the BTC delta skew indicator above the neutral 6% threshold.

比特币的集会至$ 105,000取决于宏观经济的Trendsto量规，交易者是否只是避免杠杆作用或积极下注在价格下跌中，检查比特币期权需求很有用。通常，看国情绪的时期将BTC三角洲偏斜指示器推高了中性6％的阈值。

Contrary to expectations, Bitcoin put (sell) options have been trading at a discount compared to call (buy) options, signaling strong confidence in the $100,000 support level. However, the optimism seen on May 14 has faded, with the indicator now at a neutral -4%.

与期望相反，比特币放置（卖出）期权与呼叫（买入）期权相比，已经以折扣价进行交易，这表明对100,000美元的支持水平有强烈的信心。但是，5月14日看到的乐观情绪已经消失，现在指标为中性-4％。

Since Bitcoin's price has closely mirrored the U.S. stock market, the chances of breaking above $105,000 hinge heavily on macroeconomic developments, such as trends in the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet and recession risks. Notably, Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500 rarely persists for more than two months.

由于比特币的价格与美国股票市场密切相映成趣，因此在宏观经济发展方面大量铰链超过105,000美元的机会，例如美国美联储资产负债表和衰退风险的趋势。值得注意的是，比特币与标准普尔500指数的高度相关性很少持续两个月以上。

Net inflows of $320 million into U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on May 14 indicate ongoing institutional demand. This suggests that investors are gradually shifting their perception of Bitcoin from a risk-on asset to a non-correlated instrument, which might decrease the likelihood of sharp price corrections, even without strong leveraged bullish positions.

5月14日，美国比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）净流入3.2亿美元，表明持续的机构需求。这表明投资者正在逐步将对比特币的看法从风险资产转移到非相关的工具，这可能会降低价格较高的纠正的可能性，即使没有强大的杠杆作用。