比特幣（BTC）的價格徘徊在其歷史最高額為100,00美元的最高點僅幾％

比特幣（BTC）的價格徘徊在其歷史最高售價100,00美元的歷史高處，而OnChain Analytics提供商GlassNode的數據揭示了“此週期的獨特動態”，因為長期持有人繼續佔據財富分配的占主導地位

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

A unique divergence emerged as long-term Bitcoin holders took profits, while the overall supply held by this cohort continues to rise.

隨著長期比特幣持有人獲得利潤而出現的獨特差異，而該隊列的總體供應持續上升。

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to the 10th percentile, its lowest range in a decade, despite prices trading near all-time highs.

比特幣的波動率已降至第十個百分點，儘管價格交易幾乎是有史以來的高點，但其十年來最低的範圍。

Bitcoin (BTC) price is currently trading just a few percent below its all-time high of $111,800, and data from onchain analytics provider Glassnode reveals a "unique dynamic of this cycle."

比特幣（BTC）的價格目前的交易價格僅低於其歷史最高點111,800美元，而OnChain Analytics提供商GlassNode的數據揭示了“這一周期的獨特動態”。

The report points out that long-term holders (LTHs), defined as those who have held BTC for over 155 days, are realizing substantial profits, with daily net realized profit/loss for LTHs peaking at $930 million. However, despite this profit-taking activity, the overall LTH coin supply is still rising.

報告指出，長期持有人（LTHS）定義為那些持有BTC超過155天的人正在實現可觀的利潤，每天淨實現LTHS的利潤/損失，達到9.3億美元。但是，儘管有這項利潤活動，但總的LTH硬幣供應仍在上升。

This stands in stark contrast to prior stages of a bull market, where LTH supply tends to decline as more investors take profits and their coins transition to shorter-term holder status.

這與牛市的先前階段形成鮮明對比，牛市供應量往往會下降，因為更多的投資者將利潤及其硬幣過渡到短期持有人的地位。

At this stage of the rally, a unique duality in market structure is unfolding, with selling pressure being outweighed by ongoing accumulation, the report notes. This shift in holders' behavior has been largely attributed to the increasing involvement of institutional investors and derivatives products like US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, which favor longer-term custody and trading.

報告指出，在集會的這個階段，市場結構的獨特二元性正在發展，銷售壓力超過了持續的積累。持有人行為的這種轉變在很大程度上歸因於美國現貨比特幣（BTC）ETF等機構投資者和衍生品產品的參與，這些產品有利於長期的監護權和交易。

Further highlighting this late-cycle behavior, the realized profit/loss ratio stands at 9.4, indicating that most long-term coins being spent are at substantial profit.

進一步強調了這種後期循環行為，實現的利潤/損失比率為9.4，表明大多數花費的硬幣都具有可觀的利潤。

Historically, such levels coincide with periods of market euphoria and often precede a local or cycle top, although they can persist for months if demand continues to outpace supply.

從歷史上看，這樣的水平與市場欣快感時期相吻合，並且經常在本地或週期頂部之前，儘管如果需求繼續超過供應，它們可以持續數月。

Bitcoin volatility tightens and could dictate price discovery

比特幣的波動率收緊，可以決定價格發現

Analyzing Bitcoin's current volatility profile presents a paradox. On one hand, realized supply density has climbed in recent weeks, signaling that several investors bought around the $105,000-$110,000 level. In such tightly clustered environments, minor price swings can trigger outsized emotional or trading responses, increasing the risk of sudden volatility.

分析比特幣的當前波動率概況呈現出悖論。一方面，最近幾週實現的供應密度已經上升，這表明幾位投資者購買了約105,000至110,000美元的水平。在如此緊密的環境中，較小的價格波動會觸發巨大的情感或交易反應，從而增加突然波動的風險。

However, in the derivatives market, at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV), a measure of expected future price swings derived from Bitcoin options pricing, continues to fall across all timeframes, which suggests that traders aren't bracing for significant price dislocations.

但是，在衍生品市場中，付出的隱含波動率（ATM IV）是對比特幣期權定價的預期價格波動的度量，它繼續遍及所有時間表，這表明交易者並沒有為大量的價格錯位提供支持。

Ecoinometrics data also shows that Bitcoin's weekly realized volatility dropped to the 10th percentile, lower than 90% of weeks in the last ten years, despite Bitcoin setting a new all-time high and rallying strongly in May. This could signal that Bitcoin may be entering a new regime, reflecting strong performance without erratic price swings, which is an attractive setup for institutional investors focused on risk-adjusted returns.

生態計量學數據還表明，儘管比特幣在5月，比特幣的每週實現波動率下降到了十分之一，但在過去十年中的90％低於90％的幾週。這可能表明比特幣可能正在進入一個新的政權，反映出沒有不穩定的價格波動的強勁績效，這對於專注於風險調整後收益的機構投資者來說是一個有吸引力的設置。

With BTC price perched at the top of a dense supply cluster and institutional inflows anchoring demand, the market appears stable, but tightly wound. If new demand outpaces profit-taking, Bitcoin could burst through its volatility ceiling. But if sentiment cracks, the pullback may be sharper than expected.

隨著BTC價格棲息在一個密集的供應集群的頂部和機構流入錨定需求的頂部，市場似乎穩定，但傷口緊張。如果新需求超過獲利，那麼比特幣可能會因其波動率上限而破裂。但是，如果情緒破裂，回調可能會比預期的要大。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。