比特币（BTC）的价格徘徊在其历史最高额为100,00美元的最高点仅几％

比特币（BTC）的价格徘徊在其历史最高售价100,00美元的历史高处，而OnChain Analytics提供商GlassNode的数据揭示了“此周期的独特动态”，因为长期持有人继续占据财富分配的占主导地位

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

A unique divergence emerged as long-term Bitcoin holders took profits, while the overall supply held by this cohort continues to rise.

随着长期比特币持有人获得利润而出现的独特差异，而该队列的总体供应持续上升。

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to the 10th percentile, its lowest range in a decade, despite prices trading near all-time highs.

比特币的波动率已降至第十个百分点，尽管价格交易几乎是有史以来的高点，但其十年来最低的范围。

Bitcoin (BTC) price is currently trading just a few percent below its all-time high of $111,800, and data from onchain analytics provider Glassnode reveals a "unique dynamic of this cycle."

比特币（BTC）的价格目前的交易价格仅低于其历史最高点111,800美元，而OnChain Analytics提供商GlassNode的数据揭示了“这一周期的独特动态”。

The report points out that long-term holders (LTHs), defined as those who have held BTC for over 155 days, are realizing substantial profits, with daily net realized profit/loss for LTHs peaking at $930 million. However, despite this profit-taking activity, the overall LTH coin supply is still rising.

报告指出，长期持有人（LTHS）定义为那些持有BTC超过155天的人正在实现可观的利润，每天净实现LTHS的利润/损失，达到9.3亿美元。但是，尽管有这项利润活动，但总的LTH硬币供应仍在上升。

This stands in stark contrast to prior stages of a bull market, where LTH supply tends to decline as more investors take profits and their coins transition to shorter-term holder status.

这与牛市的先前阶段形成鲜明对比，牛市供应量往往会下降，因为更多的投资者将利润及其硬币过渡到短期持有人的地位。

At this stage of the rally, a unique duality in market structure is unfolding, with selling pressure being outweighed by ongoing accumulation, the report notes. This shift in holders' behavior has been largely attributed to the increasing involvement of institutional investors and derivatives products like US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, which favor longer-term custody and trading.

报告指出，在集会的这个阶段，市场结构的独特二元性正在发展，销售压力超过了持续的积累。持有人行为的这种转变在很大程度上归因于美国现货比特币（BTC）ETF等机构投资者和衍生品产品的参与，这些产品有利于长期的监护权和交易。

Further highlighting this late-cycle behavior, the realized profit/loss ratio stands at 9.4, indicating that most long-term coins being spent are at substantial profit.

进一步强调了这种后期循环行为，实现的利润/损失比率为9.4，表明大多数花费的硬币都具有可观的利润。

Historically, such levels coincide with periods of market euphoria and often precede a local or cycle top, although they can persist for months if demand continues to outpace supply.

从历史上看，这样的水平与市场欣快感时期相吻合，并且经常在本地或周期顶部之前，尽管如果需求继续超过供应，它们可以持续数月。

Bitcoin volatility tightens and could dictate price discovery

比特币的波动率收紧，可以决定价格发现

Analyzing Bitcoin's current volatility profile presents a paradox. On one hand, realized supply density has climbed in recent weeks, signaling that several investors bought around the $105,000-$110,000 level. In such tightly clustered environments, minor price swings can trigger outsized emotional or trading responses, increasing the risk of sudden volatility.

分析比特币的当前波动率概况呈现出悖论。一方面，最近几周实现的供应密度已经上升，这表明几位投资者购买了约105,000至110,000美元的水平。在如此紧密的环境中，较小的价格波动会触发巨大的情感或交易反应，从而增加突然波动的风险。

However, in the derivatives market, at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV), a measure of expected future price swings derived from Bitcoin options pricing, continues to fall across all timeframes, which suggests that traders aren't bracing for significant price dislocations.

但是，在衍生品市场中，付出的隐含波动率（ATM IV）是对比特币期权定价的预期价格波动的度量，它继续遍及所有时间表，这表明交易者并没有为大量的价格错位提供支持。

Ecoinometrics data also shows that Bitcoin's weekly realized volatility dropped to the 10th percentile, lower than 90% of weeks in the last ten years, despite Bitcoin setting a new all-time high and rallying strongly in May. This could signal that Bitcoin may be entering a new regime, reflecting strong performance without erratic price swings, which is an attractive setup for institutional investors focused on risk-adjusted returns.

生态计量学数据还表明，尽管比特币在5月，比特币的每周实现波动率下降到了十分之一，但在过去十年中的90％低于90％的几周。这可能表明比特币可能正在进入一个新的政权，反映出没有不稳定的价格波动的强劲绩效，这对于专注于风险调整后收益的机构投资者来说是一个有吸引力的设置。

With BTC price perched at the top of a dense supply cluster and institutional inflows anchoring demand, the market appears stable, but tightly wound. If new demand outpaces profit-taking, Bitcoin could burst through its volatility ceiling. But if sentiment cracks, the pullback may be sharper than expected.

随着BTC价格栖息在一个密集的供应集群的顶部和机构流入锚定需求的顶部，市场似乎稳定，但伤口紧张。如果新需求超过获利，那么比特币可能会因其波动率上限而破裂。但是，如果情绪破裂，回调可能会比预期的要大。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。