Bitcoin (BTC) price is hovering just a few percent below its all-time high of $100,00

Bitcoin (BTC) price is hovering just a few percent below its all-time high of $100,00, and data from onchain analytics provider Glassnode reveals a “unique dynamic of this cycle,” as long-term holders continue to dominate wealth distribution

Key takeaways:

A unique divergence emerged as long-term Bitcoin holders took profits, while the overall supply held by this cohort continues to rise.

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to the 10th percentile, its lowest range in a decade, despite prices trading near all-time highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is currently trading just a few percent below its all-time high of $111,800, and data from onchain analytics provider Glassnode reveals a "unique dynamic of this cycle."

The report points out that long-term holders (LTHs), defined as those who have held BTC for over 155 days, are realizing substantial profits, with daily net realized profit/loss for LTHs peaking at $930 million. However, despite this profit-taking activity, the overall LTH coin supply is still rising.

This stands in stark contrast to prior stages of a bull market, where LTH supply tends to decline as more investors take profits and their coins transition to shorter-term holder status.

At this stage of the rally, a unique duality in market structure is unfolding, with selling pressure being outweighed by ongoing accumulation, the report notes. This shift in holders' behavior has been largely attributed to the increasing involvement of institutional investors and derivatives products like US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, which favor longer-term custody and trading.

Further highlighting this late-cycle behavior, the realized profit/loss ratio stands at 9.4, indicating that most long-term coins being spent are at substantial profit.

Historically, such levels coincide with periods of market euphoria and often precede a local or cycle top, although they can persist for months if demand continues to outpace supply.

Bitcoin volatility tightens and could dictate price discovery

Analyzing Bitcoin's current volatility profile presents a paradox. On one hand, realized supply density has climbed in recent weeks, signaling that several investors bought around the $105,000-$110,000 level. In such tightly clustered environments, minor price swings can trigger outsized emotional or trading responses, increasing the risk of sudden volatility.

However, in the derivatives market, at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV), a measure of expected future price swings derived from Bitcoin options pricing, continues to fall across all timeframes, which suggests that traders aren't bracing for significant price dislocations.

Ecoinometrics data also shows that Bitcoin's weekly realized volatility dropped to the 10th percentile, lower than 90% of weeks in the last ten years, despite Bitcoin setting a new all-time high and rallying strongly in May. This could signal that Bitcoin may be entering a new regime, reflecting strong performance without erratic price swings, which is an attractive setup for institutional investors focused on risk-adjusted returns.

With BTC price perched at the top of a dense supply cluster and institutional inflows anchoring demand, the market appears stable, but tightly wound. If new demand outpaces profit-taking, Bitcoin could burst through its volatility ceiling. But if sentiment cracks, the pullback may be sharper than expected.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.