以太坊（ETH）處於三階段市場週期的第二階段

根據分析師Abbé提供的圖表和推文信息，以太坊（ETH）處於三階段市場週期的第二階段。

Analyst Abbé highlighted the second phase of a three-stage market cycle that begins with a corrective period, then a recovery phase, and finally, an impulsive phase of sharp upward price behavior.

分析師阿貝（Abbé）強調了三階段市場週期的第二階段，該週期從糾正階段開始，然後是恢復階段，最後是急劇上山行為的衝動階段。

According to Abbé’s analysis, the current market cycle has already completed Phase 1 (Corrective) and entered Phase 2 (Recovery) since early 2023. Its monthly candlestick formation shows a consolidation phase in the form of a descending triangle, similar to the last cycle in 2019-2020.

根據Abbé的分析，自2023年初以來，當前的市場週期已經完成了第1階段（糾正措施），並進入了第2階段（恢復）。其每月的燭台形成顯示了以下降三角形的形式進行的合併階段，類似於2019 - 2020年的最後一個週期。

The analyst stated that the final shift into an impulsive phase (Phase 3) should occur as soon as the token closes a monthly candle above the crucial resistance at $3,000. In the previous cycle, the cryptocurrency underwent a similar structural breakout after its recovery phase, leading to a decisive rally that peaked above $4,800 in late 2021.

分析師指出，一旦代幣關閉每月的蠟燭高於關鍵阻力，最終轉變為衝動階段（第3階段）。在上一個週期中，加密貨幣在恢復階段進行了類似的結構突破，導致決定性的集會在2021年末達到高於4,800美元的峰值。

(ETH Price Chart Credit: X Post)

（ETH價格圖表信用：X POST）

Abbé anticipates a similar impulsive breakout in the current cycle. His chart projections suggest potential price levels reaching above $20,000 and beyond if the historical pattern continues.

Abbé預計在當前週期會出現類似的衝動突破。他的圖表預測表明，如果歷史模式繼續下去，潛在的價格水平將達到20,000美元以上。

Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader further supports the bullish view shared by fellow analyst Abbé. According to Merlijn, Ethereum (ETH) is replicating its 2017 price action, setting the stage for a potentially explosive breakout.

加密分析師Merlijn交易者進一步支持了分析師Abbé共享的看漲觀點。根據Merlijn的說法，以太坊（ETH）正在復制其2017年的價格行動，為潛在的爆炸性突破奠定了基礎。

In a comparative chart shared on X, Merlijn highlights a “bar-for-bar” alignment between the token’s current 2025 weekly chart and its 2017 breakout structure. Both charts depict a decisive move above the 50-week moving average (50 MA) following a prolonged accumulation phase.

在X上共享的比較圖表中，Merlijn突出了令牌當前的2025每週圖表與其2017年分組結構之間的“棒”對齊。這兩個圖表都描繪了長時間的積累階段之後的果斷運動高於50週的移動平均線（50 mA）。

(ETH Price Chart Credit: X Post)

（ETH價格圖表信用：X POST）

The chart showcases two nearly identical technical setups. In 2017, the altcoin broke out after reclaiming the 50 MA and consolidating slightly below major horizontal resistance. This move triggered a vertical rally that propelled the asset from around $10 to over $45 within a few weeks.

該圖表顯示了兩個幾乎相同的技術設置。 2017年，Altcoin在收回50 MA並鞏固略低於主要水平阻力後爆發。此舉引發了垂直集會，該集會在幾週內將資產從約10美元推向了45美元以上。

As of June 2025, the ETH token is again approaching the same type of structure, trading near $2,800 with the 50 MA acting as dynamic support. The chart shows consolidation below horizontal resistance around $4,000, mirroring the final stage before the historic 2017 breakout.

截至2025年6月，ETH代幣再次接近相同類型的結構，交易價格接近2,800美元，50 MA充當動態支持。該圖表顯示了在4,000美元左右的水平阻力下的整合，這反映了歷史悠久的2017年突破之前的最後階段。

Merlijn notes that while the patterns are similar, the current market contains significantly more liquidity and volume in trades, which could amplify any upward movement. He adds that the breakout may be explosive, not only due to technical similarities but also due to better market conditions. At this stage, the cryptocurrency has a “bigger engine” and “no brakes.”

Merlijn指出，儘管模式相似，但目前的市場包含更多的流動性和交易的數量，這可以擴大任何向上移動。他補充說，突破可能是爆炸性的，不僅是由於技術相似性，而且還因為市場狀況更好。在此階段，加密貨幣具有“更大的引擎”和“無剎車”。

According to on-chain metrics from IntoTheBlock, whale accumulation has increased significantly in the last 30 days, further supporting this bullish structure. Whales, defined as addresses with substantial ETH balances, have accumulated +2.05%. In contrast, investor-level wallets have reduced their supply by -2.70%, shifting the supply balance towards larger holders.

根據Intotheblock的鍊鍊指標，在過去的30天中，鯨魚的積累顯著增加，進一步支持了這種看漲的結構。鯨魚定義為具有實質性餘額的地址，累積了 +2.05％。相比之下，投資者級的錢包將其供應量減少了-2.70％，將供應平衡轉移到了較大的持有人方面。

(ETH Historical Concentration Credit: IntoTheBlock)

（ETH歷史濃度信用：intotheblock）

Participation by retail investors has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of +0.02%. This shift in ownership indicates that the larger market players, often viewed as "smart money," are displaying greater confidence and preparing for a potential breakout.

散戶投資者的參與仍然相對穩定，略有增長 +0.02％。所有權的轉變表明，較大的市場參與者通常被視為“智能貨幣”，正在表現出更大的信心，並為潛在的突破做準備。

This concentration of ETH supply in the hands of more aggressive traders has been linked to major price shifts in the past. It lends credence to the broader argument that Ethereum might be on the verge of entering a new impulsive phase.

在更具侵略性的交易者手中的這種ETH供應集中與過去的重大價格變化有關。它使以太坊可能處於進入新的衝動階段的邊緣的更廣泛的論點使人相信。