拉烏爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）說，比特幣（BTC）價格與全球流動性增長直接相關。

Raoul Pal的說法，比特幣的價格緊密跟踪了全球流動性的增長，流動性最多可以解釋其價格變動的90％。

Bitcoin's price is notoriously sensitive to global liquidity, some analysts say it nearly perfectly tracks it with a lag of about three months. This relationship is fueling the current bullish narrative as BTC price soars back above $100,000. But how long can this trend last?

一些分析人士說，比特幣的價格對全球流動性敏感，它幾乎可以完美地跟踪它，大約三個月。隨著BTC價格飆升至100,000美元以上，這種關係正在推動目前的看漲敘述。但是這個趨勢可以持續多長時間？

According to Raoul Pal, the founder of Global Macro Investor, global liquidity is closely tied to the increase in debt levels in many countries. In a recent speech, later recapped by Paul Guerra, Pal highlighted this connection, asserting that despite looming concerns—recession risks, geopolitical tensions, and other global stressors—liquidity is the dominant force behind asset price action.

據全球宏觀投資者的創始人拉爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）稱，全球流動性與許多國家的債務水平的提高密切相關。在後來由保羅·瓜拉（Paul Guerra）回顧的最近演講中，帕爾強調了這一聯繫，他斷言，儘管有迫在眉睫的擔憂（不必要的風險，地緣政治緊張局勢和其他全球壓力源），但流動性是資產價格行動背後的主要力量。

As he highlighted, we’re now in the 11th year of the bull market, an anomaly in itself, with risky assets like the Nasdaq and Bitcoin continuing to rise despite the narrative of a pending market crash. According to Pal, this resilience can be attributed to an "unyielding tide of global liquidity."

正如他所強調的那樣，我們現在處於牛市的第11年，本身是一種反常現象，儘管納斯達克和比特幣等風險的資產仍在繼續上升，儘管敘述了未決的市場崩潰。根據PAL的說法，這種韌性可以歸因於“全球流動性的浪潮”。

According to his calculations, global M2 liquidity, the broadest measure of the money supply, explains up to 90% of Bitcoin's price movements and as much as 97% of the Nasdaq's performance when considering a 12-week lag.

根據他的計算，全球M2流動性是對貨幣供應的最廣泛衡量標準，它解釋了比特幣價格變動的90％，在考慮為期12週的滯後時，納斯達克的績效佔97％。

A chart comparing global M2 (with a 12-week lead) and Bitcoin's price shows an almost uncanny alignment, especially over the past two years. The correlation is particularly striking over the shorter time frame, with periods of divergence often followed by convergence later in the cycle.

比較全球M2（領先12週）和比特幣價格的圖表幾乎表現出了幾乎不可思議的一致性，尤其是在過去兩年中。相關性在較短的時間範圍內特別引人注目，差異週期通常是在周期後期的收斂。

Pal also frames the issue in personal finance terms. He says there's an 11% "hidden tax" on all of us, composed of 8% currency debasement and 3% global inflation. According to Pal, this tax ultimately flows to governments and central banks, impacting everyone through changes in the purchasing power of our money.

PAL還以個人理財方式將問題構成。他說，我們所有人都有11％的“隱藏稅”，包括8％的貨幣貶值和3％的全球通貨膨脹。根據PAL的說法，這項稅收最終會流向政府和中央銀行，通過改變我們資金的購買力來影響所有人。

In the long term, this new tax is part of a broader trend of global liquidity expansion, which began in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis with a focus on U.S. dollar liquidity. Over the past 15 years, we've seen a nearly linear increase in global M2, with a slight uptick in 2018 due to the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) actions.

從長遠來看，這項新稅是全球流動性擴展趨勢的一部分，該稅率始於2008年的金融危機，重點是美元流動性。在過去的15年中，由於中國人民銀行（PBOC）的行動，我們看到全球M2的線性增長幾乎是線性的，2018年略有上升。

This offers a high-level view of global liquidity and suggests its long-term expansion is structural. However, this growth isn't linear. Over shorter time frames, it fluctuates based on specific drivers.

這提供了全球流動性的高級視野，並表明其長期擴張是結構性的。但是，這種增長不是線性的。在較短的時間範圍內，它會根據特定的驅動程序波動。

As reported by Capital Economics, in the short term, three main factors influence global liquidity: the U.S. Federal Reserve, the PBoC, and banks lending through collateral markets.

根據資本經濟學的報導，在短期內，三個主要因素影響了全球流動性：美國美聯儲，PBOC和銀行通過抵押市場貸款。

On the bright side, the weak global economy and a softening dollar usually bode well for liquidity. But rising bond volatility, a key indicator of collateral scarcity and tightening credit conditions, is choking lending and ultimately undermines liquidity.

從好的一面來看，全球經濟疲軟和美元軟化通常是很好的流動性。但是，債券波動率上升，這是附帶稀缺性和收緊信貸條件的關鍵指標，正在扼殺貸款並最終破壞流動性。

Together with the strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, this dynamic is crucial for understanding the ebb and flow of global liquidity.

加上對美國國庫債券的強勁需求，這種動態對於理解全球流動性的潮起潮落至關重要。

According to Michael Howell, author of "Capital Wars," these two forces are now converging, setting the stage for a potential turning point in the cycle.

據《資本戰爭》的作者邁克爾·豪威爾（Michael Howell）說，這兩支部隊現在正在融合，為周期中的潛在轉折點奠定了基礎。

As Howell explains, global liquidity moves in roughly five-year cycles, with each cycle marked by a specific driver and a unique time frame. The current cycle, which began with the PBoC injecting liquidity into the system in response to the COVID-19 crisis, is nearing its peak.

正如豪威爾（Howell）所解釋的那樣，全球流動性大約五年的周期移動，每個週期都以特定的驅動程序和獨特的時間範圍標記。當前的周期始於PBOC響應於COVID-19危機的PBOC向系統注入流動性，即將接近其峰值。

Howell projects this cycle to mature by mid-2026, reaching an index level of around 70 (below the post-COVID index of 90). This would mark a turning point, with a subsequent downturn being a likely outcome.

豪厄爾（Howell）在2026年中期將這個週期投射到成熟，達到70個索引水平（低於90後旋轉指數）。這將標誌著一個轉折點，隨後的下滑可能是一個可能的結果。

This pessimistic outlook is partly due to the rapid pace of global liquidity expansion, which is occurring at an unprecedented rate. In the past, such rapid increases in liquidity were usually followed by periods of contraction, as seen in the 1970s and 1980s.

這種悲觀的前景部分是由於全球流動性的迅速增長，這是以前所未有的速度發生的。過去，流動性的迅速增加通常是在1970年代和1980年代所見的收縮期。

However, the current cycle is unfolding against the backdrop of a persistently weak global economy, which is likely to prompt further easing by central banks.

但是，目前的周期在持續薄弱的全球經濟的背景下展開，這很可能會促使中央銀行進一步緩解。

The Fed, in particular, faces a difficult choice: continue fighting inflation or pivot to support an increasingly fragile financial system. At its May 7 meeting, rates were held steady, but the pressure on Chair Jerome Powell is mounting, especially from US President Donald Trump, who urged the Fed to cut rates to zero to help the economy.

特別是，美聯儲面臨著一個困難的選擇：繼續與通貨膨脹或樞紐作鬥爭以支持日益脆弱的金融體系。在5月7日的會議上，利率保持穩定，但杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）主席的壓力越來越大，尤其是來自美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump），後者敦促美聯儲將利率降低到零以幫助經濟。

At the same time, economic uncertainty is driving up U.S. Treasury yields and fueling bond market volatility, both indicators of collateral scarcity and tightening credit conditions. Over time, these pressures are likely to become headwinds for liquidity expansion.

同時，經濟不確定性正在推動美國國庫的收益率，並加劇了債券市場的波動，這既是附帶稀缺的指標又增強了信貸條件。隨著時間的流逝，這些壓力可能會成為流動性擴展的逆風。

Moreover, a looming recession is expected to weaken investor risk appetite, further draining liquidity from the system. This pessimistic outlook stands in stark contrast to the bullish view of market analyst Tom DeMark, who predicts

此外，預計迫在眉睫的經濟衰退會削弱投資者的風險食慾，從而進一步消耗系統的流動性。這種悲觀的前景與市場分析師湯姆·德馬克（Tom DeMark）看來的看法形成鮮明對比，後者預測